Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIGHER, BUT IT MIGHT BE TOPPING OUT
Joblessness rose to 5.3% in Q3-2025 which is its highest level since late 2016. But hours-worked rose for first time in almost two years.

LOWER, BUT NO SIGNS IT’S BOTTOMING OUT
The overnight full dairy auction brought lower prices yet again, down -2.4% in USD terms this time, down -1.0% in NZD terms. Butter (-4.3%) and cheddar cheese (-6.6%) were the big decliners this time, but the key WMP also fell -2.7%. If it wasn’t for China buying, the situation could have been worse as a bearish tone was very evident and markets for milk fats (butter, cheese) are now oversupplied. This was the sixth consecutive drop, taking the fall since early August to more than -10%. So the softness is mounting up now and analysts will be dusting off their new season $10/kgMS payout forecasts for a serious review.

STABLE TO IMPROVING
The Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report says fewer borrowers are now falling behind on debt repayments, while borrowers who had previously been in default are finding ways to ‘mitigate stress’. It likes trading banks’ strength. It judges the main risks to financial stability are external. Fragmentation of global trade and finance, and ongoing uncertainty continue to present risks. Elevated global equity valuations, in areas such as tech stocks, and growing government debt levels in many advanced economies are also vulnerabilities, they say.

HELPING WITH CAR INSURANCE
Readers should note that we have added a new interactive feature to our content (in the desktop sidebar, in random ad positions on mobile). This tool gives a data-based indication of the range of cost of premiums for car insurance. You only need enter the registration number of the vehicle to get this indication. The premium data is powered by our partnership with Quashed.

THE AIR IS GOING OUT OF COMMODITY PRICES
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell slightly in October to be +4.4% higher than year-ago levels. Dairy prices fell harder in the month. Due to dairy’s high weighting, this was enough to offset rising prices in meat and wool (+3.0%), forestry (+1.1%), and aluminium (+5.1%). The overall index has drifted lower since May, coinciding with the peak in dairy prices that month. In NZD terms the Index rose 1.5% in October from September due to the NZD weakening yet again. In local currency, these commodity prices are up +12.0% for the year although that boost is drifting off its earlier highs.

NZX50 STALLS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is now down -0.1% so far on Wednesday. That puts it +1.4% higher over the past five working days. It is up +4.0% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has risen another +1.1% so far today. Air NZ leads the gains as Vista, Kathmandu, Napier Port all rise while Goodman, Infratil, Summerset, and Precinct decline on mixed NZX trade.

BOND INVESTORS CAN’T GET ENOUGH
It’s a good time for the NZ Government to borrow. Demand for their bond issuance is high which is driving down the interest rate cost. Tomorrow there will be yet another $450 mln on offer in the next NZGB tender, and more will follow at that level. But Westpac is pointing out that to meet its current year funding targets, Treasury will have to run two more syndicated taps until June 2026 and they will have to raise about $10 bln in total. In the current market, that should easily find funding.

DOUBLING UP
The Government is increasing the Crown Liquidity Facility (CLF) that it provides to the Local Government Funding Agency Limited (LGFA) to support local government sector borrowing. The increase is from $1.5 bln to $3 bln. The term has been extended from December 2031 to June 2037. LGFA is the largest lender to the local government sector, with approximately 80% market share of annual sector borrowing and has loans outstanding to councils and Council-Controlled Organisations of $23.4 bln. The Crown owns 20% of the paid up capital of LGFA and thirty councils own the remaining 80%.

EXPANSION HOLDS EVEN IF SENTIMENT SOFTENS
The private S&P Global China services PMI has remained modestly expansionary in October, and still better than the official version. The sector continues supported by a faster rise in overall new business, although export sales fell modestly. Meanwhile, ‘efficiency’ drives led to staffing levels reducing in part due to cost concerns. Despite higher input prices, output charges fell fractionally, while business confidence regarding the year ahead softened.

SWAP RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates probably fell today on global forces. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp on Tuesday to 2.53%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bp at 4.11%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Tuesday’s rate is up +1 bp to 4.10%. The UST 10yr yield is down -6 bps at 4.05%.

EQUITIES ALL LOWER, SOME SHARPLY
The local equity market is now down -0.3% in Wednesday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is down another -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down a very sharp -4.2%. Hong Kong is down -1.0% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.6% to start their Wednesday trade. Singapore is down -1.1% at its open, an outsized shift lower for them. Wall Street faded sharply again in Tuesday trade and the S&P500 ended down -1.2%. If you were following along you will have noticed that the NZX50 is the least-affected by the global mood among the markets we follow.

OIL SOFTER
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just over US$60/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$64/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DROPS AGAIN
There have been a few more trades today but those have prices down at $50/NZU and its lowest since May. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$48 from yesterday, now at US$3938/oz.

NZD FALLS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from yesterday at this time at just over 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -40 bps at 49.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -50 bps at just under 61.1.

BITCOIN DROPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$100,370 and down a massive -6.2% from this time yesterday. That’s a -13% drop since October 29. Volatility has been high at just over +/- 3.8%.

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