Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RETAIL STUNTED
Updated data from the Worldline payments network shows consumer spending up +0.3% in October from the same month a year ago, far lower than can be accounted for by inflation. Only Nelson and Otago(Queenstown-Lakes) have spending rising more than inflation. Auckland is down -0.1%, Wellington is down -3.7% and Christchurch is up just +0.6%.

ASKING RENTS FALL
Average advertised rents down by $21 a week compared to a year ago. The rental housing market is favouring tenants with rents dropping and more vacant properties needing tenants. You know it is serious when landlords are forced to lower asking rents.

MORTGAGEE SALES DOUBLE
Meanwhile mortgagee sales volumes have almost doubled in the past six months, with the number of advertised mortgagee sales rising steadily since April.

SAVERS RESPOND TO RISK-FREE INCENTIVE
The Reserve Bank sees a rise in deposits with some non-bank deposit takers since July introduction of Depositor Compensation Scheme.

FARMER FINANCIAL STRESS LOW
Non-performing rural loans are now near a 16-year low. Benefiting from strong prices, farmers are paying down debt and splashing out on maintenance, the Reserve Bank says.

TAX TAKE TELLS THE TALE
The Crown accounts for the first three months to September 2025 were released today and they confirmed how weak the local economy is. For example, gross payroll tax deductions rose only +2.3% in September from the same month a year and that it the lowest rise since early 2012. These toals include activity from pay gains, employment gains, and hours worked. For most of the past decade these gains have easily exceeded +5% as workers got pushed into higher tax brackets as a further embellishment to tax flows. Not happening now and that is unusual. GST tax collections show the same effect. For the first time in decades, this tax flow has topped out and recently started to fall. So it will be no surprise to know that the September OBEGAL deficit came in larger than forecast, even from the September BEFU Forecast. Not by a lot in government terms but it was -$249 mln Sept-actual vs Sept-forecast. If they miss that much in one month, it doesn’t bode well for the upcoming year.

OVERDUE MAINTENANCE FUNDED
In Budget 2025, $144 mln for critical metro rail upgrades was allocated. Today $94 mln has been allocated to maintenance and renewals in the Wellington metro rail network, and $49 mln will be for upgrades across the Auckland metro rail network.

MILK SUPPLY THREAT
Rabobank is noting that dairy farmers in the Hurinui Basin in North Canterbury are now recovering from severe late October weather that caused significant damage to irrigation infrastructure. The region accounts for about 2% of national milk flows so timely repairs are critical to mitigate overall dairy production risks.

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is now down -0.3% so far on Thursday in a weakening trend. That puts it +0.9% higher over the past five working days. It is up just a bit less than +4.0% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has risen another +0.2% so far today. Fletcher leads the gainers alongside Vista Group, SkyTV and Meridian. Goodman Property Trust, Kathmandu, Vector and Gentrack are lower.

PROFIT DIPS
BNZ’s annual profit slips in its annual results to September 2025. It says lower interest rates are enabling customers to pay down loans faster. Their year-end profit was down as revenue fell.

THE USUAL EXCESS DEMAND
At today’s $450 mln NZGB bond tender, 54 bids (of 144) won some allocation among the $1.729 mln that was bid. Yields held at about last week’s levels although the April 2029 tranche came in with a 3.07% average yeild compared to the 3.47% 12 weeks ago at the prior equivalent event.

ALLEGED MANIPULATION DETECTED
The FMA has filed High Court civil proceedings against Franco Belgiorno-Nettis, an experienced retail investor based in Auckland, for alleged market manipulation of NZX-listed shares of Steel and Tube Holdings Limited (STU). The case centres on orders for STU’s shares that Belgiorno-Nettis made between November 2020 and July 2023 via two broking accounts he held with ASB Securities. The FMA alleges that Belgiorno-Nettis’ orders repeatedly impacted the closing prices of STU shares and were therefore likely to have the effect of creating a false or misleading appearance of trading. ASB Securities systems tipped off the NZX who brought in the FMA. Steel & Tube is not a party to these proceedings.

RENEWED EXPORT IMPETUS
In Australia, their merchandise exports are rising fast again. They were up +7.9% in September from August, up +10.3% from the same month a year ago. But the surge is largely due to exports of gold which took an unusual breather in August. Mineral exports were up +9.7%, rural exports were up just +0.7%. Interestingly it was China (and Hong Kong) that drove the demand. But also exports to the US rose by almost a quarter despite the tariffs. Those tariffs have had little impact because the Americans themselves are paying them, taxing themselves.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today on global forces but not at the short end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps on Wednesday to 2.51%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.74%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps at 4.16%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday’s rate is down -1 bp to 4.09%. The UST 10yr yield is up +10 bps at 4.15%.

EQUITIES TRY A COMEBACK, PARTIALLY SUCCESSFUL
The local equity market is now down another -0.3% in Thursday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is up +2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is bouncing backs somewhat after yesterday’s big dip, up +1.4%. Hong Kong is up +0.9% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.5% to start their Thursday trade. Singapore is up +0.8% at its open, and also a recovery. Wall Street rose in Wednesday trade and the S&P500 ended up +0.4% and making back some of the prior day’s big drop.

OIL SOFTER AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down another -50 USc at just over US$59.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$63.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been few trades today so the prices are holding at $50/NZU, its lowest since May. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD TURNS FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$36 from yesterday, now at US$3975/oz.

NZD RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar is up +25 bps from yesterday at this time at just over 56.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps at just under 61.3.

BITCOIN DROPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$103,499 and recovering +3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.8%.

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