Rising temperatures and incomes are boosting demand for cooling globally, but equity and affordability matter
Around the world, demand for cooling is increasing quickly as temperatures, populations and incomes rise. In 2024, global average temperatures reached 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as heat waves. At the same time, economic development is reshaping access to air conditioning in many countries – especially in emerging and developing economies, where more than 80% of projected electricity demand for cooling by 2050 is expected to occur.
Currently, about 3.5 billion people live in regions with high temperatures, yet only about 15% of them own an air conditioner. But that is set to change in the years ahead. Across Southeast Asia, for example, the stock of air conditioners is set to increase ninefold between 2020 and 2040 based on today’s policy settings. In Indonesia specifically, the share of the population that owns an air conditioning unit is expected to rise from 14% in 2023 to 85% by 2050, driven in large part by an improvement in living standards.
Expanding access to cooling stands to improve the quality of life of millions of people. It would also save lives. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), almost half a million deaths per year globally are related to heat. While extreme heat is not a new concern in many emerging and developing economies, the challenge is becoming more urgent. Meanwhile, recent heatwaves have pushed temperatures to almost 39 °C in Paris, 37 °C in New York City and 37 °C in Seoul, and last month was the warmest June on record in Western Europe – showing that even traditionally temperate regions are increasingly affected.
While demand for air conditioning is growing rapidly, access to cooling equipment is still highly unequal, especially across income brackets. In a region that covers East Asia and the Pacific, for instance, only about 25% of low-income households own an air conditioning unit, compared with over 75% of the richest households. In sub-Saharan Africa, despite high cooling needs, use of air conditioners outside the wealthiest quintile is extremely limited, in part due to a lack of access to electricity. In contrast, Europe – where total ownership of air conditioning units is relatively low, at 20% – sees more equitable distribution across income levels.