Alto Ingredients, Inc. reported third quarter 2025 earnings showing net income of US$14.21 million compared to a net loss of US$2.44 million a year earlier, with sales of US$240.99 million down from US$251.81 million for the same period.
The company’s earnings performance was driven by stronger ethanol exports, robust demand for liquid carbon dioxide, and ongoing cost-saving and operational efficiency initiatives, despite lower overall sales.
We’ll examine how Alto Ingredients’ swing to profitability and better-than-expected earnings in Q3 2025 could reshape its investment narrative.
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To invest in Alto Ingredients, one needs to have conviction in the company’s ability to shift toward higher-value markets like low-carbon fuels and specialty CO2, as well as to sustain operational improvements beyond commodity ethanol. The Q3 2025 return to profitability potentially strengthens management’s case for this transition but does not eliminate the short-term risk of ongoing earnings volatility in a cyclical, margin-sensitive industry, especially as recent gains have not fully resolved concerns tied to future profitability.
Among recent announcements, the November 2024 agreement for CO2 transportation and sequestration stands out. This move aligns with Alto’s earnings catalyst around the Section 45Z clean fuel production credit, and supports long-term ambitions to lower carbon intensity at its plants, key to offsetting volatility in core ethanol markets and capturing higher-margin opportunities.
However, what may surprise investors is that despite this quarterly profit, there remains a persistent risk tied to earnings volatility and…
Read the full narrative on Alto Ingredients (it’s free!)
Alto Ingredients’ narrative projects $1.0 billion in revenue and $98.4 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 3.7% annual revenue growth and a $166.5 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$68.1 million.
Uncover how Alto Ingredients’ forecasts yield a $4.00 fair value, a 190% upside to its current price.
ALTO Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
Four fair value estimates in the Simply Wall St Community range from US$4 to US$17.94 per share. Expectations for growth in low-carbon fuel revenue remain a key point of debate, especially given recent profitability swings.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Alto Ingredients – why the stock might be worth just $4.00!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ALTO.
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