The much awaited revival in retail spending is still taking a while to arrive, judging by the latest card spending data for the month of October.

Although there was the encouragement for consumers during the month of a jumbo sized 50 basis point cut to the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank (RBNZ), taking it down to 2.50%, the only categories to see increases in spending were petrol and consumables (think supermarket shopping).

These two categories in Statistics NZ’s electronic cards transactions data combined to push the overall figures for October into a 0.2% seasonally adjusted rise for retail spending, following a fall of 0.5% in September. But it’s probably more instructive to look at the sectoral breakdown for the month, all figures seasonally adjusted:

consumables, up $22 million (0.8%)
fuel, up $2.5 million (0.5%)
durables, down $1.5 million (0.1%)
apparel, down $1.9 million (0.6%)
motor vehicles (excluding fuel), down $2.3 million (1.2%)
hospitality, down $21 million (1.4%).

Core retail spending, which excludes fuel and vehicles also showed an overall rise of 0.2%.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the details of the October report “point to ongoing softness in households’ spending appetites”. 

“October’s gain was almost entirely related to increased spending on groceries. And with prices continuing to rise for many essential food items, that’s not really an indication that households are feeling more upbeat,” he said.

The softness in discretionary spending categories, with falls in spending on household durables like furnishings (down 0.1%), apparel (down 0.6%) and hospitality (down 1.4%) was more noticeable. Recent months had seen spending in those categories starting to rise, but that momentum has not been sustained, Ranchhod said.

“This will be a disappointing result for the RBNZ. Interest rates have been falling for well over a year and increasing numbers of borrowers are rolling on to lower mortgage rates. That’s been putting money back into households’ wallets. However, households are still reluctant to spend (using cards anyway), with softness in the jobs market likely an important factor weighing on spending appetites,” he said. 

Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young said that as the retail sector headed into the important Black Friday, Christmas and Boxing Day sales period, it’s going to be important to see continued improvements across the whole sector.

“We know businesses have been hanging in there waiting to see an improvement in the economy.”

Young noted that with inflation currently at 3.0%, the actual card spend in October is below the current rate of inflation.

“The retail sector remains under significant strain, with businesses advising that they are absorbing as many cost increases as they can, working harder than ever as margins are being squeezed, creating significant challenges to remain open,” she said.

“We are still seeing liquidations and closures across the sector, although some regional areas are showing signs of improved trading on the back of strong dairy prices. We remain hopeful that the Reserve Bank’s recent OCR cut to 2.5% signals potential relief ahead. However, retailers are not noticing any immediate change in consumer spending.”

In other detail from the October figures, the non-retail (excluding services) category decreased by $7.2 million (0.3%) from September 2025. This category includes medical and other health care, travel and tour arrangement, postal and courier delivery, and other non-retail industries.

The services category was up $0.2 million (0.0%). This category includes repair and maintenance, and personal care, funeral, and other personal services.

The total value of electronic card spending, including the two non-retail categories (services and other non-retail), increased from September 2025, up $2.6 million – although this was such a small rise it didn’t register in percentage terms.

In actual terms, cardholders made 181 million transactions across all industries in October 2025, up from 180 million in October 2024. The average value per transaction was $54, which was down from an average of $55 for the same month a year ago.

The total amount spent using electronic cards in October 2025 was $9.725 billion, which was down 1.1% on the $9.83 billion spent in October 2024.

Among the retail categories, only the figures for consumables and hospitality were in actual terms higher in October 2025 than in October 2024.

The figures for durables, apparel, fuel and motor vehicles were all lower than for the same month last year.

And remember, these figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, so, any price rises would be expected to produce higher year-on-year figures.Â