Our top tipsters mark your card of day two of the November meeting at Cheltenham and a couple of races at Wetherby.
It’s day two of the Cheltenham November fiesta where the Paddy Power Gold Cup (14:20) takes pride of place on the seven-race card..
With the going likely to be tougher than watching a box set of Mrs Brown’s Boys you’ll need all the help you get to slosh through the rain-soaked races.
A few characters who rarely who rarely let rain stop play are Paddy’s esteemed pundits. So through the power of positive thinking and certain contract obligations we’ve strong-armed Mick Fitzgerald, Rory Delargy, Ruby Walsh, Matt Chapman & Paddy into giving us their unrivalled knowledge, sharp insights and pin-picker predictions for Saturday’s action..
Let’s get to it with our snazzy digital Cheat Sheet below. Or, if you’re a bit more old-school click here to download a spangly, sharable pdf and cement yourself as the WhatsApp group hero.
13:45 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (2M)
Mick Fitzgerald
The ground at Cheltenham is going to be very, very soft on Saturday and Henry de Bromhead’s JULY FLOWER will relish conditions. She was a good winner at Limerick on similar ground and will take a fair bit of beating.
Paddy Power
A fascinating Grade 2 in which Henry de Bromhead’s JULY FLOWER is taken to build on her easy chasing debut success at Limerick and capitalise on her mares’ allowance to thwart Dan Skelton’s Be Aware, who also impressed when going in at the first time of asking over fences at Stratford.
Rory delargy
STENCIL may not be ready for a race of this nature yet, but he’s certainly of interest. He’s at his best with some give in the ground and was a good juvenile hurdler last year, finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle trial in January. The going may have been against him in the Boodles Juvenile Hurdle at the Festival and he should improve again over fences. He’s the dark horse.
RUBY WALSH
July Flower was impressive at Limerick last time, but there isn’t much between her and BURDETT ROAD on their hurdles ratings. Burdett Road won the Greatwood Hurdle at this meeting last year, and at the prices, he looks like a value play.
Matt Chapman
BE AWARE was probably the best of these over hurdles and always promised to make a chaser so he’s quite easy to pick for the in-form trainer Dan Skelton. He was favourite for the Coral Cup at Cheltenham and a similar event at Aintree but finished eighth in both. On chasing debut at Stratford he looked very useful. I suspect this drop back in trip is right up his street.
14:20 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup (2m4f)
Mick Fitzgerald
Jagwar was a tenacious winner at the Festival but humping top-weight in this ground on his seasonal debut might be too big an ask. That leads me to an each-way play on THECOMPANYSERGEANT who is 4lb better off with Jagwar on their Festival running and has had a couple of runs over the summer. He looks a solid each-way contender.
Paddy Power
JAGWAR was one of the most progressive horses over fences last term and won the Festival Plate last March. He looks a graded performer in the making. Vincenzo signed off last season with a fine second at Newbury and is feared.
Rory delargy
HUNTER LEGEND for Venetia Williams is a big price. This could be the weekend that her horses kick into gear! Hunter Legend was well placed in smaller fields last year and was an impressive winner on his last start at Bangor. He may still be ahead of the handicapper, and I can see him outrunning his odds.
RUBY WALSH
A dull selection, but I think the favourite, JAGWAR, will win. He can carry the weight and was value for more than the winning margin at the Festival when last seen. Any rain that falls will make this a good test of stamina, which should really suit him. He looks like the class angle.
Matt Chapman
HOE JOLY SMOKE might just be able to pull off an upset. He comes into this on the back of a fine comeback third at this track in a big field three weeks ago. He travelled strongly that day but didn’t quite see the 3m1f out. I’ll chance him each-way.
14:55 Cheltenham – From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (3m)
Mick Fitzgerald
SUPREMELY WEST put in an eye-catching run last time at this venue when staying on well in third to Ma Shantou on his first start for trainer Dan Skelton. Connections felt he would improve for the run and this looks a golden opportunity to strike on ground he handles.
Paddy Power
SUPREMELY WEST was third of 17 to the promising Ma Shantou over course and distance. He’s a confident selection to confirm the promise of that run. Long Draw finished only a place behind the and is slightly better off at the weights with the lightly-raced Kikijo also feared.
Rory delargy
KIKIJO didn’t look a natural over fences last year but he has tons of ability. He was a close fourth on his return to hurdles this season on good ground, and he should appreciate getting back onto a softer surface. He’s only five and is still raw, but I can see him improving past a mark of 120. He’s very well handicapped!
RUBY WALSH
I prefer LONG DRAW at the prices, who ran in the same race as Supremely West over course and distance last time. Long Draw travelled well but looked like he needed the run more than Supremely West. He’s 1lb better off with that rival now and hopefully he can improve past him.
Matt Chapman
LONG DRAW must go well here after a staying-on fourth to Ma Shantou when last seen, a race in which the re-opposing Supremely West was a place in front in third. Long Draw should be piping-fit now after two runs this season and he can run off the same mark as last time.
15:10 Wetherby – “Introductory” Hurdle (2m)
Mick Fitzgerald
Patrick Mullins is an interesting booking for Cueros who won on good ground at Newcastle but this is a different ball game. That draws me to LIRONE DU SEUIL who has solid French form on soft ground and could be a bit of value on his UK debut.
Paddy Power
FRESH PERSPECTIVE made light of an absence when a hurdling debut winner at Fontwell. I fancy him to thwart Cueros, who looks to have better days ahead of him judged on his impressive Newcastle victory.
Rory delargy
LIRONE DU SEUIL has his first start for Dan Skelton and should really appreciate the soft ground. He’s liable to do better than he has shown in France. I’m taking the favourite on with him.
RUBY WALSH
Patrick Mullins is an eye-catching jockey booking on CUEROS for Olly Murphy. I spoke to him last week on the way to the gallops and he had loads of options for Saturday, but he’s sided with a trip to Wetherby. That was 11 days before the race, and to me, that’s a tip in itself!
Matt Chapman
MINSTREL KNIGHT is interesting here on debut over hurdles for Ed Bethell and Brian Hughes. The selection was a pretty decent staying Flat handicapper rated in the 80s.
15:30 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (2m5f)
Mick Fitzgerald
I was taken with FRENCH SHIP who won here last month and a 8lb hike in the weights doesn’t look too punitive. He gets the vote but keep an eye on C’Est Different who is improving, has a low weight but is racing out of the handicap this time and that just tempers my enthusiasm a little for his chance.
Paddy Power
JURANCON continued the positive start to his career when making a successful handicap debut at Newbury on his final outing last season. With this step up in trip promising to suit, he is taken to add to his tally on return.
Rory delargy
There’s more to come from JURANCON, who is giving weight away, but he’s built to handle that. He’s still on the improve and he’ll need to be, having won off a mark of 127 last time, but stepping up in trip should really suit him. There’s more to come from him and he should be spot on for this.
RUBY WALSH
I was with HAMSIYANN when he won this last year, and I’m with him again. He beat the aforementioned Long Draw among others last year, and they’ve all risen far more in the weights than he has in the last 12 months. He can get the job done again!
Matt Chapman
FRENCH SHIP is up a substantial 8lb for his success at the track over slightly shorter last time, but this might be the moment to catch him again as he has a fitness advantage over some of his rivals.
15:43 Wetherby – Handicap Chase (2m3f)
Mick Fitzgerald
A handicap chase over 2m 4f where trainer Tom Symonds has his string in good shape. The seven-year-old ISSAM looks to be well treated off a mark of 131 having beaten Resplendent Grey and Monviel in a handicap hurdle last season off 125. That’s good form. The softer the ground, the better his chance.
Paddy Power
ISSAM should probably still be unbeaten over fences and can make a winning start to the season having performed well in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on his reappearance last term.
Rory delargy
CERENDIPITY has been running well of late, and the Sue Smith yard are also worth following. He ran well when second behind the well-touted Be Aware at Stratford last time out, and he’s got form on softer ground. He should come on for that run, and off the same mark, he’s been given a great chance to go one better.
RUBY WALSH
Tom Symonds’ horses are in good form and he saddles ISSAM, who has a squeak. He beat Resplendent Grey in Wincanton last April before running in some high-class races. Off a mark of 131, he should handle the ground and go close.
Matt Chapman
This might be the day CERENDIPITY wins again. A pretty consistent type, my hope has the help of Gavin Sheehan and will be fit after a very fair comeback second at Stratford just over two weeks ago. A mark of 122 should be workable on past form and soft ground isn’t an issue.
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