Matthew Schaefer feels impossible. In a league where teenagers struggle to make a tangible impact and 18-year-old defensemen have become extraordinarily rare, Schaefer has dominated right out of the gates to an unprecedented degree. 

Game after game, Schaefer raises the bar, leading to its current impossible point: Should Team Canada bring Schaefer to the Milan Olympics?

The thought alone feels ludicrous, but Schaefer’s start to the season has become undeniable. He is not just great for an 18-year-old defenseman; he is just flat-out great. Through his first 20 games, his projected Net Rating is already up to 15th in the league on the back of an amazing start where he’s already at plus-4.1 — a plus-16.8 pace. That’s franchise-level stuff and fifth among Canadian defensemen behind Cale Makar, Jakob Chychrun, Josh Morrissey and Shea Theodore.

So just bring him, right? Not to be a Debbie Downer, but as fun as it is, it’s not that simple.

That Schaefer has even raised the bar to this level is an incredible feat on its own. But that bar being raised means the standard does too. The Olympics is the peak of best-on-best hockey, and that means how a defenseman does against the best in the world matters.

That will be the biggest thing to watch in regards to Schaefer’s candidacy over the next month and a half, and lucky for us, he’s starting to get reps in that role.

To start the season, Schaefer was mostly sheltered against the opponent’s best — a reasonable thing to do with an 18-year-old defenseman. Over his first 14 games, Schaefer spent just 21 percent of his minutes against the opponent’s best forwards as he wet his feet in the NHL. It was clear from those 14 games, though, that Schaefer could handle more responsibility and that’s exactly what’s been asked of him during a six-game Islanders road trip.

Results during that audition, though, have been mixed. Schaefer had a great five-on-five game against Clayton Keller and was great defensively against Nathan MacKinnon, but got smoked against Jack Eichel and had tough matchups against Artemi Panarin, Jack Hughes and Mikko Rantanen. 

Facing off primarily against some of the best in the world is extremely difficult work, a job that an 18-year-old defenseman shouldn’t be expected to handle right off the bat. Some elite defenseman don’t get there until their early 20s, with others never doing so at all. But if the impossible bar is making Team Canada, it is fair to say Schaefer is not quite there yet. In a match-up role against those six opponents, Schaefer had a 24 percent xG. For the season, he’s at 35 percent against each team’s best forward.

That doesn’t mean Schaefer won’t get there, but it does mean that he does have a lot of growing to do in a very short time to prove this is a job he can be relied upon to handle. It’s more than possible that he can within the immense support system of a star-studded Team Canada. But it does carry a fair bit of risk not seeing him deliver it yet for the Islanders.

That he’s even been tasked with such a difficult role so early in his career is also a big deal.

Since 2007-08, there have been 16 defensemen to suit up at 18, with only 11 playing 60 or more games. The last 18-year-old defenseman to play a full season was Rasmus Dahlin in 2018-19 — for good reason. Only two others — Aaron Ekblad and Rasmus Dahlin — have even been above average and the large majority have been especially crummy defensively. The average Offensive Rating for an 18-year-old defenseman is minus-0.7 which is fine, while the average Defensive Rating is minus-3.7 which is extremely weak. In other words, they’re usually just not NHL-ready. 

Schaefer is that, and then some. Within the context of his age, Schaefer’s plus-16.8 Net Rating pace should be impossible, especially considering a Defensive Rating pace of plus-4.6. An 18-year-old defenseman should not look this good already. In fact, those numbers aren’t far off Drew Doughty’s in 2009-10 — a year where he made Team Canada as a then 20-year-old.

Schaefer has only played 20 games and there’s still a chance he slows down or hits a wall. But so far, he’s been so impressive that it’s difficult to imagine anything but dominance. 

If he spends the next month figuring out how to handle tough minutes and passing that final test, there should be no hesitation in bringing him to Milan. He’s already that good.

16 Stats1. Rookie defenseman context with Parekh, Buium, Dickinson and Levshunov

The other standard for Schaefer is looking at his slightly older rookie peers. Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium, Sam Dickinson and Artyom Levshunov came into the season with a fair bit of buzz and were ranked fourth through seventh on Scott Wheeler’s top 100 prospects list in the summer. Here’s how they stack up to Schaefer so far. By Net Rating, it’s not even close.

It’s not just that Schaefer scores more and plays more, it’s that his results at five-on-five are the best of the bunch and look even better in context. Schaefer’s offensive difficulty is actually among the toughest in the league and his recent stint as a matchup defender has pushed his defensive usage toward average. The others have it incredibly easy on the defensive front, especially Parekh, Dickinson and Buium, who are among the most sheltered defensemen in the league.

That’s usually the best course of development until they prove worthy of moving up to big boy minutes, something the other four notable rookie defenders haven’t proved yet. They’ll get there one day, but Schaefer is well ahead of his class in that regard.

2. Brandt Clarke starting to become important

In a similar vein, Brandt Clarke is a player to watch over the next few weeks with Drew Doughty sidelined for the Kings. 

It takes a high level of effectiveness in a sheltered role to earn a strong enough Net Rating to warrant promotion; Clarke is hitting those marks early. He leads the Kings in every five-on-five metric at both ends of the ice with 57.5 percent of the expected goals while outscoring opponents 15-8. The biggest question mark with Clarke is his defense and he’s excelling there so far.

Now comes the real challenge of top pair usage, something the Kings have been slowly ramping Clarke up for. After starting the season with some of the easiest minutes in the league, Clarke has moved into a top four role over the last two weeks in terms of usage. In Doughty’s first game out, it was Clarke’s pair that got the toughest assignment.

Clarke has done well in November with the elevated role, earning an even higher xG rate. Keeping it up with Doughty out could be the sign that Clarke has arrived as a true top-pair defenseman.

3. Quinn Hughes’ defensive game

With Rick Tocchet gone, I am starting to wonder about Quinn Hughes’ improved defensive game vanishing.

Yes, he’s been hurt, and yes, the entire team is struggling defensively. But the level that it’s currently affecting Hughes is worth pointing out. The Canucks are currently giving up 3.7 xGA/60 with Hughes on the ice, up from 2.4 last season. Among defensemen who have played over 150 minutes, it’s the fourth-worst mark in the league. Relative to teammates, the 0.38 more xGA/60 the Canucks are giving up ranks 18th worst.

Hughes is more than making up for it with his offense; his plus-0.9 xGF/60 relative to teammates ranks second in the league and he’s got 17 points in 15 games. But the extreme lack of defense that’s going with it is worth monitoring. 

4. Evander Kane can’t score at 5-on-5

In 20 games this season, EvanderKane has earned 5.3 expected goals at even strength, the 10th highest mark in the league — and has somehow scored zero times. The next closest zero-goal scorer is Brendan Gallagher with 3.7 xG.

5. Trent Frederic contract regret

When the Oilers gave Trent Frederic an eight-year deal worth $30.8 million in the summer, they were probably expecting a return to his 2023-24 form. Based on how he looked in 2024-25, though, it felt like a tough bet to make. 

That seems to be playing out immediately — and even worse than imagined. Frederic has just one point in 21 games, has a 40.8 percent xG and has been outscored 12-4 this season. His minus-4.0 Net Rating is the fourth-worst mark in the league. Ouch.

6. Is Leo Carlsson the next Aleksander Barkov?

Since Nov. 1, Leo Carlsson has played some of the absolute hardest minutes in the league among all forwards. In that timeframe, the Ducks have earned 55.4 percent of the expected goals in his minutes, one of the best marks on the team.

Carlsson scoring a lot of points is obviously great, but it’s this sign that feels like the ultimate green flag for what he’s becoming: A complete 200-foot superstar. His current top comps at the same age are Aleksander Barkov, Leon Draisaitl, Sebastian Aho, Jack Hughes and Nathan MacKinnon. Absurd company.

7. Biggest changes in team speed this year

On Wednesday, I looked at how the Maple Leafs have had the biggest drop in team speed this season, now for the flip side. Here are the five teams that have added the most 20-plus mph speed bursts per game this season.

Biggest year-over-year changes in team speed bursts per game:

Utah Mammoth: +7.3
Anaheim Ducks: +6.4
Colorado Avalanche: +5.4
Vancouver Canucks: +4.1
Columbus Blue Jackets: +3.9
8. Jason Robertson has indeed exploded

In the last edition of 16 Stats, I wrote that Jason Robertson looked set to take off based on his increased willingness to shoot the puck and higher-than-normal usage. That’s exactly what’s happened over his last seven games, where Robertson has eight goals and 12 points.

For the year, Robertson sits top five in Net Rating and his projected value has grown to a point where only three American forwards rate higher: Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel and Jack Hughes. If he’s not picked for Team USA, it would be a massive mistake.

9. Do the Avalanche miss Mikko Rantanen on the power play?

The only thing currently stopping the Avalanche from being a perfect hockey team is, shockingly, the power play. You’d expect a team that has Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar to be a lock for the top five, but the Avalanche currently rank 25th in goals-per-60 and 26th in expected goals per 60.

That’s one area where the loss of Mikko Rantanen is really being felt right now. Rantanen leads the league with 15 power-play points, three more than the next closest player.

10. St. Louis’ numbers crashing

Maybe it’s a lack of confidence spiralling out of control, but any encouraging signs that the Blues could turn it around are starting to vanish. Since Nov. 1, the Blues’ xG has fallen to 45.2 percent, good for 27th in the league. Rather than have their goals percentage regress to expected, the Blues are doing the opposite. Add the fact that both special teams units aren’t working and St. Louis’ extremely woeful start is beginning to look deserved.

The Blues have several problems, but one of the biggest might be Pavel Buchnevich. Scoring just seven points in 20 games is tough, but it doesn’t help that he’s been one of the league’s most porous forwards defensively. With Buchnevich on the ice in November in particular, the Blues have a 38.8 percent xG.

11. Dan Muse’s masterful special teams

One hallmark of a good coach is strong special teams and the Penguins are doing extremely well under new coach Dan Muse. Pittsburgh ranks first in both power play expected goals for and penalty kill expected goals against — and is getting the results to match. The only team to ever lead both special teams in xG was the 2007-08 Red Wings. Decent company.

12. Cam York dominating on the power play

It seems like the Flyers might have finally found the answer for their power play quarterback woes. In 26 minutes with Cam York on the ice, the team is scoring 15.6 goals per 60 with York himself earning 13.9 points per 60. That’s probably good luck more than anything, but it’s a welcome sign compared to Jamie Drysdale, who only managed to lead the Flyers to 3.1 goals-per-60 on the power play — with fewer expected goals too.

13. Jakob Chychrun emerging as The Guy

One of my biggest concerns with Jakob Chychrun’s $9 million extension signed last season was his history as The Guy. Though he’s shown flashes in a bigger role, Chychrun has a long career of needing third-pair usage to thrive and struggling against top four competition. That was the problem in Arizona and Ottawa and one of the main reasons he found success in his first year in Washington. The Capitals’ blue line was so deep that they were able to hide him.

The big ticket contract, though, suggested that the Capitals had bigger plans for Chychrun as the successor to John Carlson. So far, Chychrun is living up to his end of the bargain.

Scoring 13 points in 18 games is nice, but it’s the five-on-five work that should be really turning heads. Chychrun leads all Capitals defensemen with a 58.4 percent xG, has outscored teams 16-8, and has recently been placed on the team’s matchup pair with Matt Roy. The pair have taken on the team’s toughest minutes and have earned a 63 percent xG together while heavily outscoring opponents. 

Given the difficulty of their minutes, Chychrun and Roy might be one of the league’s best pairs. Chychrun’s own leap toward handling that usage is a big part of it.

14. Shane Pinto emerging as a core piece

The one thing that was clear for the Senators last season was that the team lacked a core forward behind Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle. Most contenders have a big three up front and it feels like Shane Pinto is pushing himself into that conversation for Ottawa.

Pinto has been a two-way horse for the Senators, taking on the third-toughest forward minutes in the league behind Chandler Stephenson and Nico Hischier. Despite that, he’s thriving with 59 percent of the expected goals, allowing just 2.0 xGA/60. Scoring at a near 40-goal pace doesn’t hurt either. 

15. What’s up with Brayden Point?

I don’t think enough is being made about Brayden Point’s slow start this season. He’s on pace for 13 goals and 47 points! 

Surely he (and the Lightning) will turn it around at some point, but he’s had a tough start. Despite getting relatively easy minutes for his stature, the Lightning’s xG differential per 60 is 0.5 expected goals worse with Point on the ice this year — a difficult trend that goes back to last season. The Lightning are paying the price heavily on the scoreboard for it, getting outscored 20-12 in Point’s minutes. For the year, Point’s Net Rating is below average at minus-0.6. That’s a big surprise.

16. Slumping Canadian centers in Florida on the Olympic bubble

Point is already on Team Canada and has a strong track record, but things are also looking rough for the two other Canadian centers in the Sunshine State whose cases are dicier. 

Anthony Cirelli has 12 points in 15 games and is outscoring opponents, but his defensive numbers have tanked this season. He’s also ceded shutdown duty to Yanni Gourde in Tampa Bay, which should lead to some questions about his ability to play that role at the Olympics. He’s a good player, but Canada probably has better defensive options. 

The bigger question mark is Sam Bennett. After a fairytale playoffs, he’s having a nightmare regular season. It’s not just that he only has seven points in 19 games; it’s that things have gotten so bad that the Panthers are actively hiding Bennett in the lineup. 

Since Nov. 1, the Panthers have been using Anton Lundell and Evan Rodrigues to hard match opposing top sixes, giving them some of the toughest combined usage in the league. That’s left Bennett facing minutes similar to fourth liners like Calle Jarnkrok and Ty Dellandrea. If the Panthers can’t trust Bennett against NHL top sixes, can Canada really trust him against the best players in the world?

Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, NHL Edge and Hockey Stat Cards