Steve Tandy will be forced to make wholesale changes to his Wales side
Morgan Morse in Wales training(Image: Chris Fairweather/Huw Evans Agency)
This Saturday’s clash with South Africa falls outside of World Rugby’s designated international window so both sides will be missing some key personnel. But unlike Wales the Springboks have phenomenal strength in depth, meaning Steve Tandy’s side face an uphill task to remain competitive, let alone win.
The fact the Welsh Rugby Union have decided to schedule a Test match on the same weekend all four of its professional clubs – Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets – are playing vitally important United Rugby Championship fixtures has been heavily criticised.
“For me, that South Africa game isn’t worth playing. We’re missing that many players against the best team in the world,” former Wales number nine Richie Rees told Scrum V a few weeks ago.
Former Scotland lock Jim Hamilton, who is now a top pundit, labelled it “ridiculous”, while former Cardiff, Neath and Pontypridd outside-half Lee Jarvis called it “madness”.
As a result Tandy is forced to make wholesale changes to his matchday squad.
Back-three reshuffle
Things are far from ideal in the back-three with Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams unavailable this weekend.
Tandy has seen fit to call up Scarlets man Ellis Mee but it would be a surprise if the 22-year-old was included in the matchday squad to take on the world champions.
Wales were better in the air against the All Blacks but were still second best.
Blair Murray struggled against Argentina and Japan from an aerial perspective but he had his best game last Saturday.
The 23-year-old is a potent attacking weapon and caused New Zealand problems at the Principality Stadium.
His Scarlets team-mate Tom Rogers also had a fine game on the wing, becoming the first man to score a hat-trick for Wales against the All Blacks.
But it might still be worth putting Rogers at full-back against the world champions for his aerial prowess with Murray on the wing.
Due to the fact he has been in the squad from the start and will be familiar with the calls Rio Dyer is the sensible choice on the other wing.
Dyer has had a tough time of it over the past year but he is strong on the kick-chase and competent in the air.
All-Scarlets midfield
Joe Hawkins impressed against the All Blacks and took his opportunity to justify Tandy’s decision to drop Ben Thomas.
The 23-year-old is a lovely footballer who succeeded in bringing his outside backs into the game, while he also has a physical presence.
There was one outstanding long pass from Hawkins early in the second half which allowed Max Llewellyn to get on the outside of the All Blacks’ defence to put Rogers over for his hat-trick.
So, Hawkins needs to stay involved but Wales have issues at outside centre with Gloucester’s Llewellyn unavailable, as is Bath’s Louie Hennessey and Saracens’ Nick Tompkins.
Tandy called Joe Roberts into the squad last week and given he is the only outside centre left in the squad it is a good bet he will start.
Despite playing for the same club Hawkins and Roberts have not played much together given the former only joined the Scarlets last summer.
Roberts’ progress has stalled in recent times probably due to a serious knee injury but he is a player capable of performing at this level.
On paper Hawkins and Roberts has a nice balance as a partnership.
Fingers crossed on fitness of Dragons man
The loss of Dragons backrower Aaron Wainwright on the eve of the All Blacks clash was a hammer blow for Wales.
Tandy’s side fought valiantly with openside flanker Harri Deaves throwing everything at the cause but the fact is Wales’ backrow got physically blown away by the All Blacks.
Wainwright is a very athletic and dynamic carrier with a physical edge who is capable of making post-contact metres at Test level.
It was a double whammy for Wales last weekend with Olly Cracknell, who was the official player of the match against Japan, also missing through injury.
It meant the backrow was a bit on the small side for Test rugby.
Leicester Tigers backrower Cracknell is unavailable for this Saturday’s Test match but if Wainwright is fit he needs to come straight back into the team at No 8.
Wales need size and athleticism in the backrow against what will be a gigantic Springboks pack.
Morgan Morse is undoubtedly the best prospect in the Welsh game and while it would be a baptism of fire for the Ospreys man Wales have nothing to lose.
His development needs to be accelerated so that he is comfortable at Test level by the time the 2027 Rugby World Cup gets under way.
Morse is a dynamic carrier with an all-court game who is capable of making an impact at the highest level.
Deaves gave his all last Saturday but Wales lacked a jackal threat.
Wales cannot go into Saturday’s Test match with Alex Mann on the blindside and Deaves wearing the number seven jersey.
It is just too small to make an impact against the Springboks, especially behind a front five which is highly likely to be on the back foot.
A backrow of Wainwright, Mann and Morse is the way to go.
No Tomos Williams this weekend
Tomos Williams will be missing due to his commitments with Gloucester which is a significant blow to Wales’ chances of being competitive.
The 30-year-old is one of the only high-end international-class players Tandy has at his disposal.
Williams will almost certainly be replaced by Kieran Hardy who is a solid player.
Hardy has a sharp service and a decent kicking game but does not possess the same attacking threat as Williams.
His Ospreys team-mate Reuben Morgan-Williams will be on the bench.
Second-row is a problem
The second-row is a problem position for Wales this weekend.
Both Dafydd Jenkins and Adam Beard are unavailable for the South Africa Test match which is an issue because they have been Tandy’s first choice second-row pairing for the first three games of the autumn.
On top of this Gloucester’s Freddie Thomas, who has been a regular fixture on the replacements bench, is also missing.
This means Tandy will have to go for a brand new second-row pairing against the most ferocious and physically imposing pack in world rugby.
Ben Carter, Rhys Davies, James Fender and James Ratti are the options.
The Ospreys have the best front-five out of Wales’ four professional clubs by a long way.
Davies and Fender would be the best way to go. The abrasive Davies has a nastiness and an edge about him while the 27-year-old has a reputation for throwing his weight around.
Wales will need that level of physicality while Fender has been one of the form second-rows in Welsh rugby for quite sometime and would have been capped by now if it wasn’t for injuries.
Enforced change at loosehead
Wales will be without first-choice loosehead props Rhys Carré and Nicky Smith this weekend.
Experienced Ospreys prop Gareth Thomas is almost certain to start in their place.
Thomas did not have his best game for Wales against the All Blacks, receiving a yellow card just seven minutes after taking the field.
But he has been a reliable performer for Wales through some dark times and they will need his experience when they come up against what is an extremely physical Springboks pack.
Steffan Thomas’ Wales side to take on South Africa: Tom Rogers; Rio Dyer, Joe Roberts, Joe Hawkins, Blair Murray; Dan Edwards, Kieran Hardy; Gareth Thomas, Dewi Lake (captain), Keiron Assiratti, Rhys Davies, James Fender, Aaron Wainwright, Alex Mann, Morgan Morse. Replacements: Brodie Coghlan, Danny Southworth, Chris Coleman, Ben Carter, Taine Plumtree, Reuben Morgan-Williams, Ben Thomas, Jacob Beetham.