For years, the conversation surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs was about just how much money they had tied up in their top players.

Ever since they signed John Tavares as a big-ticket UFA on July 1, 2018, Toronto instantly became the team that represented the top-heavy, star-centered approach, which has had mixed results in the NHL during the 20 years of the salary-cap era.

This year was supposed to be different. With Mitch Marner moving on rather than staying with an offer of $13 million AAV and John Tavares taking a $6.61 million pay cut, plus the cap rising 9 percent, suddenly the Leafs’ salary structure was going to look a lot different.

Altogether, those three shifts should have provided general manager Brad Treliving with another $27 million to reallocate around the lineup rather than concentrate it all in what was known as the Core Four the past seven seasons.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, however, it hasn’t worked. To put things mildly.

Twenty-two games into 2025-26, Toronto is one of the worst teams in the NHL, with a bottom-five points percentage and some of the worst defensive metrics in the league. In fact, the Leafs are struggling so much they now have as good of a chance of getting a top-10 pick as making the playoffs (34 percent for both).

And their chances of getting the No. 1 pick (3 percent) are between four and five times higher than their odds of winning that elusive Stanley Cup (0.7 percent).

We’ve picked their on-ice woes apart in a lot of different ways so far this season, and Jonas Siegel had a good piece looking at the coaching aspect of their free fall Monday. But the area I wanted to focus on today was just how many of their players are underperforming their cap hits, something that just isn’t workable for a team with designs on being a playoff regular in the hard-capped NHL.

The Leafs’ best bargains

We can start with the fairly limited good news in this department.

Tavares, for one, has greatly exceeded his $4.39 million cap hit, as the 35-year-old sat tied for 15th in goals and points in the NHL entering Monday’s games. Using in-season market value projections via Dom Luszczyszyn, Tavares’ performance is the equivalent of a $12.5 million player so far, making him one of the most valuable players in the league.

It’s worth contemplating just where this team would be without him at that number right now.

The other Leafs who have exceeded their cap hit value by a significant amount are a short list at this point:

1. Rookie Easton Cowan on his entry-level deal
2. Veteran defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson
3. Nick Robertson, who has been in trade rumors for years
4. Bobby McMann, whose cap hit is just $1.4 million

Not listed here is goaltender Joseph Woll, who has performed admirably so far but in only four starts, which hasn’t given us much sample.

It’s hard to quibble with those four names. In addition to Tavares, Cowan and Robertson have been two of the only bright lights up front, even though it was considered pretty unlikely either would even be on the team at various points in the offseason.

OEL, meanwhile, has been leaned on particularly heavily with Chris Tanev out, averaging 22:28 per game in his last 10 outings. That’s second on the team, and over that stretch, he’s somehow chipped in 9 points, and Toronto has outscored the opposition 12-7 at even strength, the top mark on the team.

He’s been an incredible bargain for $3.5 million, in other words. Statistically so far this season, he’s been performing like a $9 million defenseman, which feels like a lot to ask of the 34-year-old over the course of an entire campaign. Again, you wonder where this blue line would be without him so far this season.

Combined, including Tavares, those five players are giving the Leafs $22 million in surplus value, which is terrific given we’re talking about the 2C, three depth forwards and an aging second-pair D.

The issue, however, is what comes next.

The Leafs’ worst contracts

At the other end of the scale, the Leafs have had a lot of players significantly underperforming their deals.

In order of largest negative value versus their cap hit, eight players are at least $2 million underwater, a pretty large percentage of the roster:

1. Philippe Myers, minus $14 million
2. Brandon Carlo, minus $5.6 million
3. Calle Järnkrok, minus $5.6 million
4. Max Domi, minus $5.4 million
5. Simon Benoit, minus $4.7 million
6. Nicolas Roy, minus $3.8 million
7. Dakota Joshua, minus $2.2 million
8. Morgan Rielly, minus $2 million

That’s well north of $40 million in negative contract value, and it’s not all just tied to poor defensive performance this season. Yes, Myers, Rielly, Domi, Järnkrok, Carlo and Benoit have all struggled mightily in that department, but other than Rielly, the entire group listed above has also been a drain on the Leafs’ ability to generate scoring chances and possession time, too.

Though Rielly has been bringing plenty of offense (17 points in 21 games and a plus-2.7 offensive rating, one of the top marks among defensemen in the NHL) and Joshua is a dependable defensive fourth-liner (albeit for a bloated $3.25 million AAV), the other six players have been significant negative factors on both sides of the puck. Which feels like it might be time to bring Bob Slydell in for a little game of “What would you say you do here?”

Below is Dom’s full chart of how every Leafs skater is faring in terms of contract efficiency so far.

What does it all mean?

Obviously, it’s difficult to boil an NHL player’s performance down to one number, but I have a hard time quibbling with any of the trouble spots the data is highlighting above.

What all the red ink is really laying out bare is how far underwater a lot of the roster has been this season. The Leafs have been trying to outscore their defensive issues basically since preseason, but with a blue line that struggles to move the puck and a lot of ham-and-eggers up front, that’s not really how they’re built, aside from a few of their stars.

The fact they’ve scored as much as they have has also been based on their shooting percentage, which isn’t sustainable.

The most obvious fix — if we’re going to set aside changing the coaching staff for now — is going to be dropping ice time, benching, trading or even waiving the biggest underperformers. Bringing in waiver claimant Troy Stecher is an example of an easy, no-risk move that will move the needle, given he will be able to outplay at least two or three of the Leafs D right now.

So, on the back end, waive Myers, start sitting Benoit for some games and drop Carlo (when healthy) to third pair and PK duty.

Up front, Domi can’t be playing center anymore, not when he’s not producing any offense and kills the team defensively. And Järnkrok — with just four points in 16 games and his defensive impacts all waning — should be sitting games, too, not playing on the top line and PP1. When you’re being outplayed by Sammy Blais and Marlies such as Jacob Quillan, it’s a troubling sign. But it’s one the organization needs to act on.

If there’s a slim positive here, it’s that the worst of the negative impacts are doing a lot of the damage for Toronto. They’re getting a net negative performance of about $22 million overall, so if they can eliminate their worst four or five performers and find replacement-level players such as Stecher to step into those holes, it will make a difference.

Will it be enough to entirely turn things around? No. But with Woll now stabilizing them in goal, at minimum, the Leafs should be able to get this group to where they’re not getting filled in every night by removing the biggest black holes and instituting more of a meritocracy when it comes to ice time and who’s in the lineup night to night.

If you can’t earn your contract, you shouldn’t be an everyday player. And maybe you shouldn’t even be on the roster at all.