Why Tom picked the Eagles: I sort of feel sick about it, because it means trusting them to straighten up and take care of business, which hasn’t exactly been their thing this season. The Bears, meanwhile, are rolling into town as something like the anti-Eagles, overcoming flaws and injury issues with on-point coaching and real chutzpah. In a way, Chicago almost feels like a safer choice, comparatively free of expectations and happy to scrap until the final whistle. The Bears have also played like one of the more solid teams in the NFL since their Week 5 bye, ranking seventh in EPA per play on offense (0.06) and 15th in EPA per play on defense (-0.06) in that span, while the Eagles have looked extremely ordinary since their own break at the beginning of the month, eking out a pair of low-scoring wins before melting into a puddle against the Cowboys. So far, this is reminding me of Bills-Texans last Thursday, when I laid out all the ways Houston could pull off an upset, only to erroneously back the Bills because of One Special Superpower (in that case, Josh Allen). Didn’t I learn my lesson? Well, yes, actually, because my main takeaway from that game was to believe in the stronger defense — and that, for all their mess, is what the Eagles have in this matchup. Vic Fangio’s crew has been near the top of the league all year, ranking sixth in EPA allowed per play (-0.11) and eighth in points allowed per game, providing a pretty stiff spine beneath all the soapy headlines. I’m banking on it being the difference on Black Friday.
