As the table-toppers
and pace-setters travel to Stamford Bridge for one of their biggest
challenges of the season, we take a look at how Chelsea vs
Arsenal
could be won and lost.
Depending on what happens between Manchester City and Leeds on
Saturday afternoon, the final match of the weekend could be a rare
clash between first and second place in the Premier
League table.
In the history of the competition, the top two at the start of
the day have only met 54 times. There have been 20 wins for the
first-placed side, 20 wins for the second-placed team, and 14
draws. That puts this meeting between Chelsea
and Arsenal
entirely in the balance, right?
Probably not, given just how solid Arsenal have been all season,
but Enzo Maresca’s improving Chelsea suddenly look like they could
be the closest challengers for the title. Who knows, if they get a
result here and cut the gap to three points, we might even have a
title race on our hands.
So, where will this battle be won and lost? Here, we highlight
four aspects of the game that could prove key.
Arsenal
Have the Edge in Set-Piece Battle
Newsflash: Arsenal are very dangerous from set-pieces. They lead
all Premier League teams for goals scored via this method (10 –
excluding penalties) this season. Even without the hulking presence
of
Gabriel Magalhães, they scored from a corner in the Champions
League on Wednesday through Jurriën Timber.
But you knew that already.
What’s perhaps flown a little more under the radar is Chelsea’s
effectiveness in these situations. They’ve scored eight set-piece
goals this season – the second-most in the Premier League – and
generated 0.45 expected goals per game from them, the
fourth-highest rate in the division. Arsenal will need to be wary
of being beaten at their own game.
But defensive set-piece data suggests this is still an area that
could prove pivotal. Arsenal remain exceptional at defending dead
balls, allowing just 24 shots from set-pieces in their first 12
league games – easily the lowest total in the league.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have struggled. They’ve only conceded one
more goal from set-pieces (4) than Arsenal (3), but the data
suggests they should have conceded at least two more. They’ve given
up 6.2 expected goals from set-pieces this season, the second-worst
record in the league behind only Burnley (6.8). That 6.2 figure
accounts for 43.5% of all the xG they’ve conceded this season – the
highest proportion of any side. It’s a clear vulnerability Arsenal
will look to exploit.
And the set-piece goals Chelsea have conceded have been
backbreakers: a long throw against Sunderland (lost 2-1), a
92nd-minute corner vs Brighton that put them 2-1 down (eventually
lost 3-1), another corner against Manchester United (lost 2-1), and
Brentford’s last-minute equaliser from a long throw (2-2). Each
time, conceding via that method has caused them to drop points.
Caicedo
vs Rice
In the post-Messi-and-Ronaldo era, there seems to be a desire
from some for every big game to be centred on an individual
rivalry.
So, with these two title-chasing teams fuelled by £100
million-plus central midfielders who are both being talked about as
potentially the best in the world, they are the perfect subjects to
shape the discussion of this top-of-the-table clash.
Much of the conversation around Moisés
Caicedo and Declan
Rice appears to be whether either can claim to be the best
central midfielder in the world. While we’re not even going to
begin trying to answer that question, we can do our best to explain
just how influential they will both be on Sunday. However, it’s
important to note that while possibly equally important for their
teams, they do very different jobs.
Caicedo is one of the best ball-winning midfielders in the
Premier League, topping the charts this season for interceptions,
with his tally of 26 at least six more than anyone else, even
though he plays for a possession-dominant side.
Only Liverpool have had more possession than Chelsea in the
Premier League this season (59.3%) – of the top 23 players for
interceptions, only two others play for teams who have had more
than 53% possession. He does get forward increasingly often, having
this season already scored three times as many Premier League goals
(three) as he has ever done before, but his main contributions are
made in front of the defence.
Rice, meanwhile, has developed into an elite all-rounder. He
does everything – there’s plenty of regaining possession, but he
also impacts games regularly at the sharp end of the pitch. In all
competitions this season, only
Leandro Trossard (10) and Eberechi
Eze (8) have more goal contributions for Arsenal than Rice (7).
Their heatmaps for league games this season show the different
parts of the pitch they frequent.
Where they are similar is in how influential they are for their
respective teams. Both play every minute they can and are probably
the two outfielders most likely to be on the field for the full 90
minutes on Sunday. Getting the better of either of them could be
key to either team winning.
Arsenal’s “Finishers”
During their three successive second-place finishes, there was a
sense that while Arsenal had a first XI capable of winning the
Premier League, the drop-off beyond it hurt them. When a player
from their first team was injured, the replacement level from a
squad player simply wasn’t high enough, and performances
suffered.
That problem has evaporated.
Arsenal went big in the summer window, acquiring seven new
players on permanent deals, as well as Piero Hincapié on loan.
These were not merely depth options either, with Viktor Gyökeres,
Eberechi
Eze and Martín Zubimendi all thrust straight into the
first-choice XI.
A Positive Week for Arsenal
That added firepower has given Arsenal the resilience they
previously lacked. With injuries biting hard already this season,
the likes of Cristhian Mosquera and Hincapié have stepped in
seamlessly for William Saliba and Gabriel. Noni Madueke has also
featured heavily across the front line.
It has also allowed Arteta to use his substitutes as genuine
game-changers, or “finishers” as he likes to call them. Arsenal’s
second and third goals against Bayern Munich in midweek came via
subs (Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli), with one created by another
in Riccardo Calafiori. They now have eight goal involvements from
substitutes in the Champions League, more than any other club.
Across all competitions, that number rises to 15. Having played
19 games, Arsenal are averaging 0.79 goal involvements from the
bench per match, which is easily the highest rate of Arteta’s
tenure and a huge 83.2% increase on last season.
So, even though they sustained another injury in their most
recent game, with Leandro Trossard withdrawn due to a calf problem,
Arsenal will feel confident that anyone stepping in can deliver.
And Arteta will have plenty of options from the bench to turn the
game if needed.
Can
Cucurella ‘Pocket’ Saka?
Key to any opponent stopping Arsenal is shackling Bukayo
Saka. Keep Saka quiet and you’ve done… maybe not half the job,
but easily more than 1/11th of it.
The England star is one of the most dangerous wingers in the
game, but if anyone has the man for the job of stopping him, it
could be Chelsea.
Left-back Marc
Cucurella hasn’t always been the most reliable defender; only
last season, he was responsible for two errors leading to an
opposition goal in Premier League games, which is the joint most by
any Chelsea outfielder in any season in the last decade.
In 24 appearances in all competitions in 2025-26 (including the
Club World Cup), though, he looks far more assured, and, in a
settled team that is looking increasingly cohesive in both attack
and defence, he is yet to make any such costly errors.
Stopping Saka is about far more than not making mistakes,
though. You have to be near perfect to stand any chance, but that
happens to be something Cucurella managed very recently indeed. In
the Champions League on Wednesday, he kept Barcelona winger and
Spain teammate Lamine Yamal completely silent as
Chelsea recorded an exceptional 3-0 win.
Cucurella is rarely overawed by the big occasion and takes no
prisoners. Before the game, he told reporters that he was preparing
for the challenge of facing one of the best right-wingers in world
football by going in hard on teammate Estêvão. “I told Estêvão to
wear shin guards in training,” he said with a smile.
Improving Chelsea
The Chelsea man may have reason to be confident, too, having
largely succeeded in keeping Saka quiet in their last two
meetings.
In last season’s 1-1 draw between the sides at Stamford Bridge,
Saka didn’t play anything like as prominent a role as he usually
does, having two shots, both of which missed the target, and
failing to create a single chance.
Their previous meeting was the Euro 2024 final, in which Saka
was quiet, failing to have a single shot or beat an opponent with a
dribble, though he did create two chances. Cucurella, meanwhile,
set up Mikel Oyarzabal’s championship-winning goal to break English
hearts.
The truth is Arsenal are so good that even if you stop Saka,
there are still countless other things to worry about. But even so,
Maresca will surely be more confident about his team’s chances with
Cucurella facing up against Arsenal’s best player.
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