For many, the idea of success or failure in sport is very simple — you either win it all, or you’ve wasted the season.
But clearly there is some middle ground. So many factors contribute to the expectations surrounding an AFL club; from how they’ve built their team and what assets they’ve gained or dealt, to how recently they’ve had on-field success.
So, keeping all necessary context in mind, Foxfooty.com.au analyses every AFL club and makes an early call on its 2026 pass mark.
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ADELAIDE CROWS
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
The biggest risers of the 2025 home-and-away season also suffered the hardest fall when September arrived, with the Crows bowing out of their first finals campaign in eight years after consecutive losses. It leaves them in an intriguing yet precarious position: they’ve shown the competition their best is good enough to trouble anyone, but also exposed the gap they must still bridge to become a genuine premiership threat. With that in mind, securing a double chance and converting it into a qualifying final win would mark their 2026 season as a clear step forward. Anything less, and they’ll be forced to take a tougher path — needing at least one, if not two, September wins to break back into the final four for the first time since 2017. Whichever way it’s spun, finals success is a must for Matthew Nicks’ side as they welcome promising young talent alongside a two-time Brisbane premiership hero in Callum Ah Chee … for free.
BRISBANE LIONS
Pass mark: Make it to the grand final
There’s no reason to think the Lions can’t win a third consecutive premiership, given their star-studded list and natural progression from exciting emerging talents. The list, somehow, got even better in the off-season, adding Sam Draper as its first-choice ruckman, Oscar Allen to be the key forward spearhead next to Logan Morris, and Academy-produced top draftee Dan Annable as another long-term midfield weapon. Organic improvement out of the likes of Jaspa Fletcher, Darcy Wilmot, Morris and the Ashcroft brothers cultivates a belief this juggernaut is about to go to another level under Chris Fagan — all but a certainty to make it eight-straight finals appearances. Thus, Brisbane will be expected to be there on the last Saturday in September once again in 2026.
CARLTON
Pass mark: Make it to wildcard weekend
The elephants in the room at Ikon Park heading into 2026 aren’t even in the room anymore. They’re now at St Kilda (Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni) and Sydney (Charlie Curnow). Unfortunately, though, there’s no sugar-coating it: Michael Voss and his Blues will be up against it next year. That said, while Carlton has lost star power, its list depth has actually improved. Ben Ainsworth, Campbell Chesser, Ollie Florent, Will Hayward and Liam Reidy all arrived in the trade period, while Nick Austin and his recruiting team were able to snare father-son draft gun Harry Dean. Their on-ball brigade, assuming good health, should be fit and humming; particularly with the addition of top 2024 draftee Jagga Smith from his ACL injury. There’s still plenty for Voss to work with in 2026, and enough talent for the Blues to push for a spot in the AFL’s inaugural wildcard weekend. Competition will be fierce, but a strong response after a disappointing 2025 is non-negotiable.
COLLINGWOOD
Pass mark: Make it to the grand final
Good, old Collingwood… forever? Some would argue not, and given the age profile of their list, it’s a talking point that will continue to linger indefinitely within articles like these. But don’t let that overshadow what should again be a strong season for the black and white, backed by a wealth of September experience that only Geelong can genuinely match. Last year, we said the Magpies needed to reach the grand final for their season to be considered a pass mark, and they came agonisingly close. The departure of Brody Mihocek will sting, but their internal enthusiasm for former Swan Jack Buller suggests Craig McRae and his staff believe the forward half won’t suffer too heavily. The club’s list turnover is set to accelerate over the next three or four years, but until they reach that bridge, the expectations remain the same. If Collingwood’s current list strategy is to pay off, the ultimate success must stay firmly within reach.
ESSENDON
Pass mark: Win 10 or more games
As has been the case for the best part of 20 years now, the pre-season acts as a period of hope for the Bombers. In this instance, it’s only up for Brad Scott’s side, who were beyond decimated with injury this year. Subsequently, it’s actually made them quite a tough club to grade given we haven’t seen their list at ‘full flight’ for such a long time compared to their counterparts. While their designated ‘pass mark’ of 10 wins is unlikely to see them qualify for the wildcard rounds, it certainly suggests an upwards trend in their output, which is all that can really be asked of them next season. At full strength, their best 23 looks rather threatening, and that’s before adding in their three first-round picks into the mix. Double digits in the win column for 2026, and we’ll be content!
FREMANTLE
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
This is a Dockers team ready to win in the short term; now at a stage where they have the luxury of making complementary list adds like Mason Cox to a core side teeming with emerging talent. Fremantle might’ve made the most underrated addition of the off-season in Judd McVee, with the ascending defender set to bring intercepting and counter-attacking ability to Cockburn. A first-choice midfield comprising Caleb Serong, Andy Brayshaw and Hayden Young will continue to trouble rivals, while Josh Treacy and Pat Voss culminated in a threatening duo this season and will continue to be for years to come. After Fremantle managed 16 wins this year — the most in Justin Longmuir’s six years as senior coach — the next step is a finals win, which should come in a qualifying final, as this side is of top-four calibre. But while this Dockers outfit is more than individually capable, Longmuir’s game style hasn’t always been conducive to success and will thus be a key watch.
GEELONG CATS
Pass mark: Make it to the grand final
The Cats were bitterly disappointing in the second half of their grand final loss to Brisbane, but more broadly speaking, it was another successful season for Chris Scott’s side. Bailey Smith acclimated beautifully in the midfield, forming one of the competition’s most lethal one-two punches with Max Holmes — and Geelong added further to its engine room this off-season by bringing in James Worpel as a hard-nosed ball-winner to complement the ‘Dash Brothers’ speed. The club should also see natural progression out of young bookends Shannon Neale and Connor O’Sullivan, while Tanner Bruhn will effectively act as an off-season recruit after missing all of this year. Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron inch one year closer to retirement, but the Cats haven’t actually lost anything of note, so there’s no reason why the expectation wouldn’t be to get back to the big dance in 2026.
GOLD COAST SUNS
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
The Suns not only abolished their finals hoodoo, they went and beat Fremantle away from home in an elimination final to let the competition know they’re now a force to be reckoned with. But after losing to eventual premiers Brisbane in the semi-final, it now becomes about building further on a tantalising foundation. A top-four finish and subsequent flag tilt is next on the club’s agenda, and the off-season trades for stars Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan should tell you all you need to know about the club’s thoughts on its status as a contender. The Suns also added gun Academy pair Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson at the draft to further bolster one of the competition’s most enviable lists. The time is now for Gold Coast, and a fourth piece of silverware will be on Damien Hardwick’s mind.
GWS GIANTS
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
The Giants are beginning to earn an unwanted reputation as an unfulfilled promise. A club that has been in premiership contention since Adam Kingsley assumed the helm in 2023, GWS hasn’t been able to put it together in September to capitalise on consistent home-and-away success. Its unceremonious straight-sets exit last year will continue to haunt the playing group, before a disappointing elimination final exit against Hawthorn provided even more reason to expect more out of the Giants in a year that will paint a clearer picture of where they stand with regards to long-term flag contention.
HAWTHORN
Pass mark: Make it to a preliminary final
After its 2024 emergence, there were no surprises this year around when Hawthorn surged to finals favouritism. But while they only ended up sneaking into eighth spot, the Hawks powered to a preliminary final and hung with the grand final-bound Cats. Now, the club will be expected to repeat that feat, if not go further next year around. And the Hawks’ pass mark would have been ‘make it to the grand final’ had it managed to get a Zach Merrett trade over the line in October. Alas, that’s not the reality we live in, and as a result — and after losing James Worpel — how Hawthorn’s midfield performs next year will be a key watch. In saying that, though, the feel around this team remains incredibly positive under Sam Mitchell, who we could well end up looking back at as one of the game’s mastermind coaches.
MELBOURNE
Pass mark: Win 10 or more games
It’s been a landmark off-season of change at the Demons, headlined by the arrival of senior coach Steven King and departures of premiership pair Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver. Many eyes will be on the Dees and what the dynamics look like under new leadership, but this list as currently constructed is capable of winning improvement after seven wins this year. Star-factor players Max Gawn and Kysaiah Pickett remain in place, and the club’s list department made notable additions to recompense for the losses of Petracca, Oliver, Judd McVee and Charlie Spargo — bringing in Jack Steele, Brody Mihocek and Changkuoth Jiath. Melbourne also added two top draftees in Xavier Taylor and Latrelle Pickett — cousin of Kozzie — to inject more high-quality youth to a crop that includes second-year gems Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay. The Demons should be targeting double-digit wins and look to be pushing for a wildcard berth.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Pass mark: Avoid the bottom four
The Kangaroos simply can’t afford to finish among the competition’s worst four teams again, in what will be the third full year of Alastair Clarkson’s reign. If they do, questions will seriously be asked of his ability to drag this club out of the doldrums. North Melbourne hasn’t won 10 or more games in a season since 2019, but the club appears at a point in its development where it should be able to notably up its win tally, and double-digit wins shouldn’t be out of the question as a loftier goal after five and a draw this year. The Roos didn’t lose anything of note this off-season, but they also weren’t aggressive players in the trade period — only adding Charlie Spargo as a free agent. They also addressed their small-forward line in the draft by picking Lachy Dovaston with their top choice. But more natural progression from Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw, Colby McKercher and Finn O’Sullivan in particular will be critical to just how far North is able to progress in 2026.
PORT ADELAIDE
Pass mark: Make it to wildcard weekend
The Josh Carr era has officially begun, and expectations for where he should take the Power in 2026 depend on who you ask. With several of the competition’s best 25-and-under talents on the list, it’s easy to see why many are forecasting a return to finals. Factor in a fully fit squad and a softer draw — the second-easiest slate of double-up opponents — than they had in 2025, and the case for a September resurgence becomes even stronger. Their biggest hurdle? Depth. While their top-end talent is among the league’s most electric, last season showed just how quickly things can unravel when a couple of key players go down. Their key forward stocks have held up for some time, but small forwards have been a persistent weakness — now exacerbated by the departure of Willie Rioli. Their key defensive depth is equally concerning, with Aliir Aliir unable to shoulder the load forever. Because of that, even a wildcard cameo would be a pass mark for 2026. But if their best players stay healthy, the Power should be pushing far harder than that and expecting to be part of the September action.
RICHMOND
Pass mark: Win eight games
The Tigers outperformed external expectations in Adem Yze’s second season, winning five games after some audaciously claimed they’d go winless. It’s time to see if they can take the step with natural progression from their plethora of promising youngsters, with Sam Lalor, Jonty Faull and Taj Hotton at the forefront. Josh Smillie’s development is crucial after a tough rookie season, while Luke Trainor, Harry Armstrong and Tom Sims will also be expected to take another step. Key premiership veterans Toby Nankervis, Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad, Tom Lynch and Dion Prestia remain to guide those youngsters along, while coach Adem Yze has added two more years to his Tigers tenure. And it’s not as if Richmond lost much this off-season, with Tylar Young’s trade departure arguably leaving the biggest hole — and a tolerable one at that. Adding a few more wins to this year’s tally is a reasonable target.
ST KILDA
Pass mark: Make the finals
Simply, it’s time for the Saints to put it all together. They did the business they set out to achieve in the player movement period; their haul headlined by Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni and Sam Flanders — as well as retaining Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Rowan Marshall — and now it has to translate to on-field success. Record-wise, after 13 wins and a finals appearance in 2023, the Saints have regressed in their past two seasons with Ross Lyon at the helm, but the expectation in 2026 will see an uptick in wins. A wildcard berth (ninth or 10th) doesn’t cut it in our eyes. On paper, this is now a top-eight-calibre list, and the target — as the club itself has trumpeted — should be a ladder finish inside the top eight.
SYDNEY SWANS
Pass mark: Finish in the top four
This might be slightly controversial given the Swans didn’t even play finals this year, but this is a club not even two years removed from a grand final appearance — with the vast majority of that side still intact. But now they have Charlie Curnow, and such a blockbuster trade addition means there’s very little excuse for the Swans not only to forge a return to September action, but to finish the regular season as one of the competition’s best four teams to put themselves in a prime spot to again challenge for a premiership. And assuming the growing pains under Dean Cox have come and gone, the Swans will be widely tipped to make that happen.
WEST COAST EAGLES
Pass mark: Win four games
There’s no sugar-coating the historically bad season West Coast had this year — registering its first-ever one-win campaign — but there’s reason to expect a winning uptick in 2026. The Eagles’ list department went about adding mature-age names this off-season, headlined by dual premiership Brisbane defender Brandon Starcevich, ex-Tigers key defender Tylar Young and former Lions midfielder Deven Robertson. The club also added top-five draftees Willem Duursma and Cooper Duff-Tytler. And while the Eagles lost Oscar Allen and Liam Ryan, neither offered a tremendous amount to their cause this year. Andrew McQualter now has a season under his belt and will have more confidence in the role, while the club will also expect steps forward from Harley Reid, Reuben Ginbey, Elijah Hewett, Jobe Shanahan, Bo Allan and the like. There’s enough to believe in to expect a few more wins next year, despite entering 2026 as the youngest and least-experienced list in the competition.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Pass mark: Win a final
To some, this might seem a somewhat lofty expectation seeing as the Bulldogs missed the September boat this year — despite winning 14 games, which would’ve got them in almost every other year. But this list is simply too good not to qualify for finals and then ruffle some feathers. The AFL’s best attack still has Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton spearheading the forward airways, while another step forward from Jordan Croft and a healthy Cody Weightman could make things really scary for rival backlines. Unlike last year, Luke Beveridge will enter the upcoming season contractually secure, and Marcus Bontempelli will be healthy from the get-go. Missing the finals in 2026 shouldn’t be tolerated.