Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)
Traders are contending with a confluence of resistance near current prices. The short-term pivot at 99.693 and the 200-day moving average at 99.707 are both capping upside attempts. A sustained break below this resistance zone could trigger a near-term test of the 50-day moving average and the main bottom at 98.991.
The 50-day moving average has controlled the short-term uptrend since approximately October 6, providing consistent support and trend guidance. Conversely, a convincing move above the 200-day moving average could launch a rally toward the psychological 100.000 level and the November 21 main top at 100.395.
Fed Rate Cut Probability Doubles in One Week
Market expectations for a December rate cut have shifted dramatically. Fed funds futures now price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at the December 10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch data—more than double the 39% chance seen just one week ago.
The shift gained momentum after Fed President John Williams indicated the central bank could still cut interest rates “in the near term” without jeopardizing its inflation objectives. Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, noted these comments “give us more confidence that they will cut rates,” which has “at least temporarily, put a dampener on the dollar’s uptrend.”
Treasury Yields Tick Higher After CME Outage