USD/MXN has been in a downtrend since the start of the year, when we also called for an important top as Trump took office. So far, we can see a clear five-wave structure with lower highs and lower swing lows, confirming a strong bearish trend that may not be over yet. After the recent corrective retracement within a projected wave 4 that stopped near 18.96 resistance area, we can now see it resuming lower for the 5th wave, which can extend the decline even down to 18.0 – 17.60 area before a larger recovery shows up.
Big picture
Higher degree A-B-C correction down from 2020 highs. We think that the first part of 2025 can be a bearish reversal for USDMXN, down into wave (B)
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