Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HOME IMPROVEMENT ALTERATION WORK DECLINES
The number of building consents issued for residential building alterations has declined by -20% over the last three years.

THE ADDICTION PARTY
In another big win for the tobacco industry, the Government (via NZ First minister Costello) is moving to reduce the tax on HTPs (heated tobacco products). These are just another way to deliver a nicotine hit. Heated tobacco products are addictive. Nicotine is a highly addictive substance found in all tobacco products, including cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and smokeless tobacco. Nicotine alters brain function, leading to cravings and dependence. There is a lot of money to be made from feeding addictions. There is clear misdirection going on here about ‘reducing smoking’. Smoke per se isn’t the issue (although reduced lung cancer is a good thing), it is the nicotine addiction that is. It is not ideal for nicotine suppliers to kill their customer base so pivoting to other delivery methods is helpful. It is maybe a good time to buy BAT shares as a new generation gets hooked.

NZX50 EASES LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is -0.1% lower today, although up +0.4% from a week ago. That makes it down -1.4% since the start of the year although it is still up +4.6% from this time last year. Tower, Heartland, Skellerup, and Channel edge higher while Oceania, Investore, Vital, and EBOS weigh on the NZX50. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% today.

EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is another GDT dairy Pulse auction tomorrow, and the futures markets are signaling what they signaled at last week’s Pulse auction, SMP prices holding or a little firmer, WMP prices falling maybe more than -3%. But that didn’t actually happen last week, so probably best to wait for the actual results tomorrow morning.

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY OWNERSHIP GETTING TOUGHER
Our tracking of commercial property for-lease listings on reatestate.co.nz has them rising to a 2025 high at 24,420 listings. Auckland listings make up 60% of these. In “Auckland Central” they have jumped +20% this year. But larger proportional rises have occurred in Hamilton (+53%), Tauranga (+32%), Wellington (+22%), Dunedin (+23%) and Queenstown (+31%). Commercial properties for sale now represent 15% of those for lease.

MICHAEL HILL PASSES
Icon retailer Sir Michael Hill has died, aged 86. Details here.

NO PROGRESS SO FAR
US-China trade talks in Stockholm will continue tomorrow after an inconclusive session earlier today.

JAPANESE ICE CREAM INNOVATION COMING HERE
A Japanese company is to launch new ice-cream products here. They like New Zealand (and Australia) because we have the world’s highest per capita consumption of ice cream. They are bringing technology for sandwiching, coating and layering that can’t be found locally. Watch out for Azuki bars, and Yawamochi.

MORE THAN JUST ‘SEASONAL’
In northern China, and around Beijing, they are going through a rough time with rain and storms. There are reports of huge rainfall in some of the outlying districts of Beijing that have resulted in “significant casualties and property losses”.

FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a new service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.20% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at just over 1.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.59% and down -4 bps at 4.57% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bps at 4.40%

EQUITIES LOWER; NZX50’s NO CHANGE IS TALLEST DWARF
The local equity market is now little-changed in late Tuesday trade. However the ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.9% . Hong Kong is also down -0.9% at its open and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore has opened down -0.4%. Wall Street ended little-changed, unable to hold earlier intra-day gains. But it is still touching record levels.

OIL RISES
The oil price in the US is up a bit less than +US$1.50, now at just under US$67/bbl and just over US$70 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STILL LOW
The carbon price is soft at NZ$56.00/NZU but again, with trades very scarce. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$20 from yesterday at US$3316/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is down -½c from this time yesterday, now at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is holding at 67.3.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$118,374 and down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low, now also at just on +/-0.9%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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