The cost of shipping goods through the Black Sea rose on Monday after Ukrainian naval drones hit two tankers en route to a Russian port last week, with fears of further attacks driving up war risk insurance costs, industry sources said.

A third attack on Tuesday targeted a Russian-flagged tanker loaded with sunflower oil off the Turkish coast, Türkiye’s maritime authority and the Tribeca shipping agency said.

The Black Sea is crucial for the shipment of grain, oil and oil products. Its waters are shared by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania and Türkiye, as well as Russia and Ukraine.

War risk rates for a typical seven-day voyage period, which are set by individual underwriters and are based on the value of the ship, rose to 0.5% for calls to Ukrainian ports from 0.4% over a week ago, shipping and insurance sources told Reuters.

War risk insurance for Russian Black Sea ports, which is typically higher, was quoted at between 0.65%-0.8% versus around 0.6% last week, the sources added.

Likelihood of repetition

Ukrainian naval drones last week hit two tankers, Kairos and Virat, which were under Western sanctions, while they were empty and sailing to Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea oil terminal.

The Black Sea incidents point to a campaign by Ukraine to restrict Russian oil revenue, which was “shaping underwriters’ assessment of intent and capability,” said Munro Anderson, head of operations at marine war risk and insurance specialist Vessel Protect, part of Pen Underwriting.

“Rates have firmed in line with that view. For Russian port calls, underwriters are pricing in a broader range of possible strike locations and a higher likelihood of repetition,” he said.

“As Ukrainian activity increases, the probability of reciprocal Russian action grows. That creates a more even risk gradient across both trades than we have seen in some time.”

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Monday that attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea were unacceptable, issuing a warning to “all related sides.”

The latest Black Sea incidents were the first attacks on non-military, non-Russian-flagged vessels in international waters, said Andrii Ryzhenko, a naval analyst and former deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian navy.

Ryzhenko said it was unlikely that Russia would retaliate against commercial shipping heading to Ukraine when it was in the territorial waters of Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania, as that would amount to an attack on NATO territory.

“They’re (Russia) attacking (vessels) all of the time, at least in Ukrainian territorial waters and using different types of weapons.”

3rd attack in less than week

The third tanker reported coming under attack 130 kilometers (80 miles) off the Turkish coast on Tuesday but did not make a request for assistance and was proceeding toward Türkiye’s Sinop port, the Maritime Affairs Directorate said on the social media platform X.

Tribeca said the ship had been attacked by a drone. It was not immediately clear who had attacked the ship and Türkiye’s Maritime Affairs Directorate did not provide additional details.

The authority said the ship was sailing from Russia to Georgia, while Tribeca said it was bound for Mersin. Both said the ship was now en route to Sinop without assistance.

“The necessary messages were conveyed to the relevant parties, including Ukrainian authorities,” a Turkish official said when asked for comment, but gave no further details.

Mysterious blasts

There have been at least seven blasts on separate tankers that called at Russian ports since December 2024 at locations including the Mediterranean, with Ukraine suspected of carrying them out, maritime security sources said.

A Turkish-owned oil tanker that was damaged near Senegal’s coast last week was hit by four external explosions, but there were no injuries or pollution, its manager said on Monday.

The Mersin tanker had previously called at a Russian port, and maritime security sources said their initial assessment was that the vessel had been targeted by limpet mines, similar to other incidents this year, which have not been confirmed by Ukraine.

The vessel was currently secured and under close control, a spokesperson with Dakar Port Authority said, confirming “a serious incident in the engine room caused a major water ingress.” The spokesperson added that the exact nature of the incident would be made public in due course.


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