Monday’s Gotham Award winners were a mixed bag of the expected (One Battle After Another for Best Feature; It Was Just an Accident for Best International Feature), and the wholly unpredictable (Sopé DìrÃsù for Best Lead Performance; Wunmi Mosaku for Best Supporting Performance). As Gold Derby’s experts, editors, and users continue to update their Oscar predictions following last night’s kudos, one thing is clear: the Gothams afterglow is real.
The black-tie ceremony was held at New York’s Cipriani Wall Street and served as the official start to awards season. The Gold Derby data underlines the awards’ unpredictability: three users tied with the highest accuracy score, and that was a paltry 56 percent.
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While the Oscar odds for One Battle After Another in Best Picture, It Was Just an Accident in Best International Film, Pillion’s Harry Lighton in Best Adapted Screenplay, and My Father’s Shadow’s DìrÃsù in Best Actor all remain the same after the 2025 Gotham Awards, three other categories are seeing upward shifts: Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actress.
Best Director
Contender
Odds
1.
Paul Thomas Anderson
Paul Thomas Anderson
One Battle After Another
95.1%
2.
Chloe Zhao
Chloe Zhao
Hamnet
93.1%
3.
Ryan Coogler
Ryan Coogler
Sinners
80.8%
4.
Joachim Trier
Joachim Trier
Sentimental Value
73.9%
5.
Jafar Panahi
Jafar Panahi
It Was Just an Accident
65.0%
Best Original Screenplay
Contender
Odds
1.
Sinners 200
Sinners
96.2%
2.
Sentimental Value
Sentimental Value
94.9%
3.
Marty Supreme
Marty Supreme
92.0%
4.
It Was Just an Accident
It Was Just an Accident
89.1%
5.
Jay Kelly
Jay Kelly
47.2%
For Best Director, Panahi is up 2 percent for helming the French-bankrolled movie, though he’s still in fifth place. The category is expected to be led by Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), with Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) also primed for directing nominations. It Was Just an Accident, which received the coveted Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival in May, tells the story of a small mishap that triggers a chain reaction of ever-growing problems.
Additionally, Panahi is up 1 percent for Best Original Screenplay, securing him a fourth-place spot on our chart for It Was Just an Accident. The three screenplays above his are Sinners by Ryan Coogler, Sentimental Value by Eskil Vogt and Trier, and Marty Supreme by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie. On the same day Panahi was sentenced in absentia to a prison term in his native Iran for “propaganda activites,” the filmmaker was in New York collecting his three Gotham trophies.
Panahi was warmly welcomed each time he stepped up to the podium. “It is so great to be surrounded by independent filmmakers and get awarded,” he said through an interpreter on one of those trips. “I’d like to thank … everyone who worked with great enthusiasm and believed they were doing something valuable.” The Iranian artist based It Was Just an Accident on his own experience as a political prisoner in his native land and made the movie in secret — a backstory that has resonated with audiences as the film has traveled the festival circuit.
Best Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Teyana Taylor
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
89.8%
2.
Ariana Grande
Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
84.7%
3.
Elle Fanning
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
76.9%
4.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
70.0%
5.
Amy Madigan
Amy Madigan
Weapons
61.3%
6.
Gwyneth Paltrow
Gwyneth Paltrow
Marty Supreme
27.5%
7.
Regina Hall
Regina Hall
One Battle After Another
16.7%
8.
Wunmi Mosaku
Wunmi Mosaku
Sinners
15.7%
As for Best Supporting Actress, Mosaku is still in eighth place, but she’s up 2 percent. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) currently leads the race, with the other top contenders being Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), and Regina Hall (One Battle After Another).
Mosaku was not present at the ceremony as she was busy making another film, so Sinners director Ryan Coogler accepted the Gotham Award on her behalf. “She has a really cool accent, she’s beautiful, and I’ll be forever grateful to her for what she brought to the movie,” he said. “Thank you to the Gothams for honoring this incredible actress.” Sinners momentum is certainly building as the cast and crew have been appearing at events in both Los Angeles and New York, allowing voters to re-experience a film that was released back in April.
Don’t get too excited with all of these odds upswings: the Gotham Awards have a mixed track record when it comes to predicting the Oscars. Since the Gothams began awarding Best Feature prizes in 2004, only six movies — Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022), Nomadland (2020), Moonlight (2016), Spotlight (2015), Birdman (2014), and The Hurt Locker (2009) — prevailed here before later claiming Best Picture at the Academy Awards. And last year’s big winner, A Different Man, received just a single Oscar bid for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.
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