The race to become California’s next governor is neck and neck, though about a third of voters still remain undecided, according to a new poll.
An Emerson College poll, released Thursday, revealed that Republican Chad Bianco, a county sheriff, is leading among the field to replace term-limited California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a staunch critic of President Donald Trump who has emerged in recent months as one of the loudest voices in the Democratic Party.
Receiving 13% of the vote, Bianco is closely followed by Republican Steve Hilton, a political commentator, with 12% support. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) also received 12% after he just announced his campaign for the post last month.
Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), who has found herself at the center of controversies in recent months, stands with 11%, while 31% of voters still remain undecided of who they want as their next leader. The vote remains split among five Democrats.
California’s primary, set for June of next year, is nonpartisan, meaning the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party, will advance to the November general election.
When asked to name the top issues facing California, voters pointed to the economy (34%), housing affordability (25%), immigration (10%), threats to democracy (10%) and health care (9%). On immigration, a majority of respondents, at 60%, believe that mass deportations of undocumented immigrants is a bad thing, while 40% see a tougher crackdown as a positive.
The poll found that Newsom, who has served two consecutive terms and is unable to run for reelection, has a 47% job approval rating, which is higher than Trump’s standing in recent surveys. Thirty-nine percent disapprove of the governor’s performance in office.
Overall, 52% of voters hold a favorable view of Newsom, compared to 38% who have an unfavorable view, according to the poll.
Voters, however, are divided on whether an endorsement from Newsom would ultimately influence who they cast their ballot for, with 33% of respondents saying it would matter, and 33% saying it would make them less likely to support the candidate. Per the poll, 35% argued that Newsom’s backing will not be a factor in who they decide to support.
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, California voters chose Newsom to lead the Democratic primary, with 36%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg received 16% of the vote, compared to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) with 13% and former Vice President Kamala Harris, a California native, with 9%. Fifteen percent said they would vote for someone else.
Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance dominates the Republican primary with 52%. Trailing behind is Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 11%, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 10% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 6%. Nine percent would prefer a different candidate.
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered California voters, was conducted December 1-2. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.