Purists will point out it is in fact the increased debt – rather than the title they have each held – that is the common factor, thus destroying my attempt at pre-Christmas humour.
I hold to my view. But it is novel to have the finance minister in the frame, rather than the Prime Minister.
Three years is not much time to turn this ship about.
Willis has yet to earn the respect of the Taxpayers’ Union – chaired by the doughty early 1990s fiscal warrior Ruth Richardson.
But the Government is making steady progress on its own reform agenda: RMA reforms being the next policy ship to launch down a shipway which will make it easier for companies to “get to yes” for new projects.
Latest company earnings are improved. There is now a broad consensus that the economy will start to turn up next year.
At column deadline, there was no disownment from the Richardson-led lobby that their campaign was imminent.
I got an inkling of this several months ago when an excitable NZTU executive director Jordan Williams phoned wanting to place an advertisement in the then-forthcoming Mood of the Boardroom publication I edit attacking spiralling Government debt.
I mentioned it wasn’t in my view appropriate to bag the finance minister this way within such a publication.
These were the combined views of leading CEOs – many of whom were on record – which had yet to be published.
Fairness was important.
(I referred Williams to Herald advertising to make a call.)
In fact, the publication was already going to deliver some tough messaging for Willis and her boss, the Prime Minister.
But it also included many pages of interviews with CEOs across broad sectors that were optimistic for their company’s – and this country’s – future.
Big campaigns take cold hard cash. While the Taxpayers’ Union says it sports 200,000 on its newsletter list it is not transparent over the identity of its major donors.
This detracts from its authenticity.
Willis has run into heavy weather getting smaller budget commitments from other Cabinet ministers, but the credit rating agencies have continued to back New Zealand.
Morningstar DBRS recently rated New Zealand a triple A, with a stable trend in its first public rating for this country, saying it reflected NZ’s fundamental strengths of prudent fiscal and monetary policy-making.
It reflected the view the economy was rebalancing following tight monetary policy as the Government worked to tidy its books.
It expected growth to pick up next year on the back of lower interest rates and reduced global uncertainty.
S&P Global Ratings has also reaffirmed New Zealand’s AA+ rating with a stable outlook but noted budget deficits and debt needed to be tackled.
It said growth should gradually improve on the back of strong exports, tourism and the effect of falling interest rates on consumer spending while the US tariffs were manageable.
Fitch and Moody’s have also reaffirmed their ratings of NZ debt.
Debt has continued to grow.
I have argued before that the Government was foolhardy giving across-the-board tax relief in its first Budget and the pruning shears at the public service have not gone far enough.
A growth agenda initially took second place to rolling back some of Labour’s own big spending initiatives.
Willis’ contention is the Government is committed to prudent debt management with an emphasis on the transparency of costs, benefits and trade-offs – such as connecting tax relief with concurrent cost reductions in the public sector.
The Government is working on ongoing cost reduction, particularly within back-office functions of the public service, which have grown faster than frontline services. There’s a call for digitising and streamlining the public sector for greater efficiency.
When it comes to asset recycling (Treasury is working on this) there are challenges in explaining to the public how proceeds from asset recycling (selling government assets) are used.
There is a need for transparency so that citizens understand what assets are being invested in and how those decisions are made.
Singapore’s Temasek model is one potential approach. But Willis reckons its governance complexity and suitability for New Zealand’s diverse assets do not provide a model.
The Government has sought to be transparent about the trade-offs inherent in fiscal decisions – such as providing tax relief while also making cost reductions elsewhere.
Reforms have been made to the Commerce Act to promote better competition and fairer markets.
Ongoing structural reforms in sectors like banking and building regulation are underway.
These don’t go far enough or fast enough for the lobbyists.
Earlier, in an April Fool’s Day release, the Taxpayers’ Union thanked its departing executive director (Jordan Williams) following his appointment as chair of the Government’s Department of Economic Efficiency Aotearoa – DOGEA – announced by Willis.
It was an obvious “’p*** take” on tech billionaire Elon Musk’s foray into slashing Federal expenditure in the United States – which did not end well for Elon.
No such luck for Richardson and Co.
The attempt to bury Williams in the fiscal cutting room has (so far) got no further than satire.
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