Canada’s Tajon Buchanan, left, battles for the ball with Ecuador’s Piero Martin Hincapie during a friendly match in Toronto last month.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
On Dec. 10, columnist Cathal Kelly and reporter Paul Attfield answered reader questions about Canada’s chances in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and how the country will handle co-hosting with the U.S. and Mexico.
Canada, which ranks 27th in the world, is in Group B, alongside Switzerland (17th) and Qatar (51st). Canada’s remaining group-stage opponent – which it will play in the opening home match in Toronto – will be the winner of the UEFA Playoff A: Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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From Canada’s strategy to nab its first World Cup win to the politics of the tournament, our experts answered your questions. Here are some highlights from the Q&A.
The tournament
Who are the top contenders to win the World Cup this year? Any wild cards or underdogs?
Paul Attfield: Only eight countries have won FIFA’s biggest prize, and before France won in 1998 it was only six (Spain joined that club in 2010). So history dictates that it’s hard to look outside of that group for an eventual World Cup winner.
The two finalists last time – Argentina and France – are still looking strong, ranked second and third, respectively, with Lionel Messi’s team also adding the Copa America to its resume since its victory in Qatar.
Spain, the defending European champion, is also hitting its stride, going unbeaten through the European qualifying campaign, and has been infused by the youthful exuberance and talent of Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal and Gavi. And England, despite famously not winning since 1966, looks solid under German coach Thomas Tuchel. Interestingly, for an England coach, he doesn’t seem afraid to stand up to his stars, recently leaving Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham out of his squad to emphasize that no player is greater that the system.
For underdogs, I’m looking at Ecuador, which lost just twice in qualifying.
England’s Harry Kane plays in the European qualification match against Albania in Tirana last month.ADNAN BECI/AFP/Getty Images
Is there a group of death this year? Which groups are shaping up to be the toughest?
Attfield: The problem with expanding the World Cup by 50 per cent (32 teams to 48) is that the average quality of team gets a little weaker as a result. So for every Curaçao or Cape Verde that qualifies, while both great stories, it likely means that one of the top teams are playing them instead of, say, Senegal or South Korea.
The wrinkle this time is the playoff teams, and while the addition of potentially Italy – through the UEFA playoffs next March – could have induced a touch of extra intrigue had it landed in Spain or Germany’s group, it ended up with Canada instead.
No outright Group of Death in World Cup draw, but many interesting subplots
That being said, world No. 29 Norway – which qualified ahead of No. 12 Italy in their group – is probably better than a third seed, so landing in Group I with world No. 2 France, No. 19 Senegal and the winner of a playoff that will feature Bolivia, Suriname and Iraq, is probably the closest thing to a true ‘Group of Death.’
The fact that the eight best third-place teams will also qualify for the knockout rounds also eases a lot of concerns for teams in any perceived tougher groups.
Which players or matches are you most excited to watch?
Cathal Kelly: Every World Cup match is great because it’s a World Cup match. The stakes make it great, even if the game isn’t. But as Paul noted, the drawback to expanding the tournament is that it sucks some of the juice out of it, especially in the opening round.
What I’m most looking forward to are the games that could be tripping hazards for the glamour teams:
England vs. Croatia (June 17). England can lose and still progress, but a loss will send England into an emotional tailspin. Fun. France vs. Senegal (June 16). Senegal famously upset France at the 2002 World Cup, and the defending champions never recovered. Here’s hoping it’s 2-for-2.Spain vs. Cape Verde (June 15) might require adding a digit to the scoreboard. But what if Cape Verde did it? That for me is the soul of the World Cup opening round.Open this photo in gallery:
Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal scores during the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match against Bulgaria in Valladolid, Spain in October.Florencia Tan Jun/Getty Images
What do you think of the 10 matches Canada is hosting but not playing in? Which ones are shaping up to be the most interesting?
Kelly: One possible benefit to tournament expansion is that you don’t really know what you’re going to get on a given day, and teams might be inclined to play looser because of that. A few thoughts on the games Canada is hosting:
Germany vs. Ivory Coast (June 20 in Toronto) is the only match in Canada that is excellent on paper Egypt vs. New Zealand (June 21 in Vancouver) is a chance to see Liverpool’s Mo Salah.Senegal vs. Bolivia/Suriname (June 26 in Toronto) could be a brawl.Ghana/Panama (June 17 in Toronto) could be a wild one because they are in a group with England and Croatia. Both teams will feel like they have to win that one to advance.
My point is you don’t know what the great game will be until it’s played, or, sometimes, until the tournament is nearly over.
What fans can expect from the World Cup group games in Canada
If you had to pick now, which team would you choose to win?
Kelly: My knee jerk answer is England. They were unbelievable in qualifying. They got a tough group (whatever that means in a 48-nation World Cup), so there can’t be any letdowns. Plus, they’re due. But I think the heat is going to be a determinative factor in this tournament. With that in mind, I’m going to say Spain. Netherlands is my dark horse.
Attfield: I will echo Cathal and say England. Thomas Tuchel has emphasized his system over accommodating star players, and so a repeat of Euro 2024 – where Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, and even Bukayo Saka were all basically operating on the same patch of grass – should be avoided. However, as Cathal mentions, the mid-summer heat is something England struggles with.
The other team that I’m backing to have a good tournament is Brazil. It negotiated the heat pretty well in the last North American World Cup – USA 1994 – and under the coaching of Carlo Ancelotti, who has won literally everywhere he’s been, should have a far more disciplined and restrained system than we saw three years ago, when it got knocked out by Croatia. Plus, Brazil is due for a good run, having not been in a final since 2002 – an eternity for the five-time winners.
Canada’s path
How is Canada’s soccer team looking this year? Can it win its first World Cup match and finally make it out of the group stage?
Kelly: Let’s assume that Italy is the as-yet-undetermined UEFA participant in Canada’s Group B. If that’s the case, and if they want to make it out of the group and maybe win a game in the knockouts, Canada must beat Italy in their first game. Whether or not they can do that is a wiiiiiiide open question.
But the last time out, Canada got lost in the weeds of mind games and tactics. It’s not our forte. Were I in charge, I would be making it simple – beat Italy, and anything’s possible.
What’s the state of Canada’s roster? Who are the notable players to watch? How is Alphonso Davies looking after his injury?
Attfield: When healthy, Canada head coach Jesse Marsch has a good squad to choose from, many of whom now ply their trade in some of Europe’s top leagues. However, healthy is the key word, as his team is dealing with a number of bad injuries to important players.
You mentioned Alphonso Davies, and he made his first return to the pitch for Bayern Munich on Tuesday following the torn knee ligaments he suffered while playing for Canada back in March. He only played the last couple of minutes of regulation and injury time, but the fact that he’s back in action is encouraging.
Canadian team confident as it sizes up its World Cup pool opponents
Now Marsch will be hoping for the same return to full fitness for more members of his first-choice backline, with Alistair Johnston and Moise Bombito both rehabbing from serious leg injuries.
But with the likes of Tajon Buchanan, Jonathan David, Tani Oluwaseyi and Promise David all involved in the Champions League this season, some of Canada’s most important contributors are getting used to the rigours of the highest levels of football, and that can only be of benefit to their chances next summer.
Kelly: That is the question – how is Davies looking after his injury. Six months is more than enough to get back into game shape, but ACL tears are tricky. Davies lives on his speed. Is he going to be the same Davies? That’s the biggest roster question facing Canada going into the tournament, and can’t be answered until he’s played the first game in Toronto.
Alphonso Davies plays in a friendly match against Panama in Toronto in October, 2024.Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press
If Italy wins its UEFA playoff and joins Group B, what position do you think Canada will finish in?
Kelly: If that happens, I say Canada draws with Italy, loses to Switzerland and beats Qatar. Meanwhile, Switzerland loses to Italy and beats Qatar. Italy beats Qatar. That would leave Italy with 7 points, Switzerland and Canada with 4 each, and Qatar with zero.
In that scenario, Canada would play the first place finisher in either Group D (USA?) or Group E (Germany?) in the first knockout round. Please note: I never get these things right. And I mean never.
As much as Team Canada does not want to play Italy in group play, isn’t it the best possible match-up for Toronto, which has one of the largest Italian diasporas?
Kelly: I agree entirely. I think Canada should be praying to get Italy (who have yet to qualify for the tournament) in their first game. A country of real aspiration does not come to a World Cup hoping to sneak around a few nobodies so that they can get wiped out by the first decent team they face. You should want the best teams, right away. That’s how you build an international reputation for excellence – which is the point of going to a major sporting event in the first place.
Canada should want Italy in the World Cup
Should Canada get Italy, they ought to go straight at them. The Italians will think they’re winning because they’re the Italians. Imagine how the country will react if Canada wins that game? It’d be like winning the whole thing in a lot of other countries. Even a battling loss will energize the nation.
I am struggling to understand why pundits like yourselves are saying that Switzerland is beatable. With world-class players such as Granit Xhaka and Manuel Akanji, and based on their World Cup qualification record, it appears that Switzerland is a better team than Canada overall. Can you elaborate a bit more on why Canada should be able to beat or at least earn a draw against the Swiss? I am not convinced that Canada has a clear path to the knockout round.
Attfield: I’m actually with you with regards to Switzerland, as in they will be a tough nut to crack. The biggest advantage that Canada will have, beyond a pro-Canadian crowd at BC Place, is the timing of the match, which will be the third of their three round-robin games.
So, as a couple of the national-team players said on Friday after the draw, whatever happens against – presumably – Italy, beating Qatar becomes a must, and given the calibre of this current Canadian team, should be expected, it not presumed. From there Canada would go into the game against Switzerland in control of its own World Cup destiny.
Diaspora communities elated to see home countries play on Canadian soil
A draw should then be sufficient to secure qualification, but if Canada needs to win – either to win the group or to ensure it doesn’t slide into a third-place finish and a meeting with a first-place team, which could be Germany – then Switzerland is going provide a stern test for Jesse Marsch and his players. Beyond the top-tier players that you mention, the Swiss have shown in recent tournaments that they aren’t just there to make up the numbers, reaching the knockout rounds in each of the past three World Cups and European Championships.
Switzerland’s Granit Xhaka in action with Slovenia’s Danijel Sturm during the UEFA qualifiers in October.Borut Zivulovic/Reuters
Canada’s co-hosting duties
Especially given past reports of corruption at FIFA, should the Canadian government and its cities be subsidizing these games?
Kelly: If corruption is an uncrossable red line for us, then the only sports Canada will be participating in are grade-school activity days. And not at one of those really competitive grade schools.
Cathal Kelly: Canada plays host to World Cup games that don’t live up to its dreams
Vancouver and Toronto have put millions for the tournament. Was that the best use of their money?
Kelly: I guess that depends on how you define ‘best use’. Toronto and Vancouver are obviously desperate to be seen as world-class cities. Spending a bunch of money on big international events is part of how you do that. You can also make a decent argument that it’s great way of selling yourself to the high-skilled, young workers every major city wants to attract.
Lasting benefits of World Cup in Vancouver won’t reach level of 2010 Olympics, critics say
I get your point. On paper, it sounds like a lot – the City of Toronto currently says it expects the whole thing to cost it $380-million. But the city also spends around $150-million annually on snow removal, and I have to wait a week after a storm for my street to be plowed. I have no issue with spending a reasonable amount of taxpayer money on a major cultural event that will tend to make Canada seem like it’s an open, welcoming place capable of doing complicated things well.