Jet planes are assembled at a Bombardier facility in Mississauga, Ont., on Monday. Canadian exports to the U.S. grew by 4.6% in September, helped by outbound shipments of aircraft.Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press
Selling more private jets, trucks and gold to the United States in September contributed to Canada’s first international trade surplus in seven months as the export sector continued to recover from a tariff-induced plunge in the spring.
Surging exports to the U.S. and shrinking imports in general were the main drivers of the small $153-million surplus, which represented a sharp reversal from Canada’s overall $6.4-billion trade deficit in August, Statistics Canada said Thursday. The September trade data were scheduled for release in November but were delayed as Statscan was unable to access some information during the 43-day U.S. government shutdown.
After falling 3.2 per cent in August, total exports rebounded 6.3 per cent in September to $64.2-billion, Statscan said, marking the largest percentage increase since February, 2024. Exports to the U.S. increased by 4.6 per cent from August while imports fell for the third consecutive month, leading Canada’s trade surplus with its southern neighbour to widen from $6-billion in August to $8.6-billion in September.
That is the largest trade surplus Canada has had with the U.S. since February, just before President Donald Trump began to impose tariffs on Canadian goods in March.
Canada’s exports to the U.S. plummeted by 16 per cent in April because of the new restrictions, with many exporters rushing their goods into the U.S. ahead of the duties. Even with the recent recovery, exports to the U.S. remain weaker than in the months preceding the trade war.
Most Canadian goods are entering the U.S. duty-free. Yet certain sectors – including steel, aluminum, autos and lumber – are getting hit with substantial tariffs. That is raising the stakes for Canadian policy-makers to find relief.
“The key risk moving forward is how the trade backdrop will shake out as the U.S., Canada and Mexico prepare for a complex USMCA review,” Marc Ercolao, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said in a report on Thursday, referring to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that is up for negotiation next year.
Trade experts have warned that Mr. Trump could threaten to withdraw the U.S. from the trilateral agreement as a negotiating tactic.
U.S. and Canada discussed tariff-rate quota for steel before trade talks halted
Canadian fertilizer industry in crosshairs of Trump administration’s price-fixing probe
Canada’s increase in shipments of goods south of the border was partly the result of greater exports of aircraft, light trucks and unwrought gold, Statscan said. Exports of aircraft overall spiked by more than 72 per cent from August to September. While the agency said aircraft exports tend to rise in the last month of each quarter, the jump in September was larger than usual.
“Specifically, higher shipments of private jets to the United States were observed in the month,” Statscan said.
Increased gold exports also contributed to the surplus, with Statscan citing larger shipments to Switzerland, the U.S. and Britain. Crude oil exports rose 5.8 per cent from August to September. The majority of Canadian crude oil exports go to the U.S., though Statscan said greater exports of crude oil to Germany were responsible for most of the growth in September.
The September data also showed that Canada’s trade diversification efforts were beginning to have an impact, with exports to countries other than the United States rising 11 per cent and imports from non-U.S. countries falling 7.3 per cent. Excluding the U.S., Canada’s international trade deficit narrowed from an all-time high of $12.4-billion in August to $8.5-billion in September, which is the lowest such deficit since October, 2024.
Despite increased exports, Canada would likely have recorded another trade deficit in September were it not for a corresponding decline in overall imports, which fell 4.1 per cent in September after rising 1 per cent in August. Almost two-thirds of the decline in imports came from Canada buying fewer metals and minerals from the rest of the world, Statscan said, with “unwrought gold posting a sharp drop in September.”
“High-value imports of unwrought gold from South Africa and Switzerland were observed in August but did not repeat in September,” the agency said.
Imports of consumer goods fell 6 per cent from August to September, with widespread declines observed across all product categories. A nearly 14-per-cent drop in imports of pharmaceutical and medicinal products was the single largest contributor to the decrease in September, Statscan said, mainly because of lower imports from European countries, such as Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark.
“Soft imports point to some underlying weakness in domestic demand,” Bank of Montreal senior economist Shelly Kaushik said in a report on Thursday.
Andrew Grantham, senior economist with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said in a report on Thursday that September’s modest trade surplus “was as much a reflection of weaker imports as it was higher exports,” and that export volumes “remained well down on a year-over-year basis even after September’s surge.”
“There’s plenty more hurdles still for Canadian trade to pass,” Mr. Grantham said. “The recovery in exports could well slow again in the near term before seeing a more sustainable recovery later in 2026.”