The UK’s ban on new petrol and diesel cars will “inevitably” be pushed back after the EU looked set to drop its measures, senior industry figures have said.
The statement cast doubt on Ed Miliband’s net-zero polices, which include banning the sale of pure petrol and diesel cars from 2030. The environment secretary has been one of the biggest advocates on the measure in cabinet.
The EU has mandated a similar ban from 2035 but is preparing a climbdown after intense lobbying from Germany and Italy.
On Friday morning Manfred Weber, the president of the European People’s Party, the biggest in the Brussels parliament, said “the end of combustion engines is history”, adding: “Good news for the automotive industry and millions of employees.”
Dr Andy Palmer, the former chief executive of Aston Martin, said the UK would be forced to follow suit because of the sheer number of vehicles traded between the two areas.
He said: “It becomes very difficult because if the EU drops their ban the factories there won’t ramp up their EV production in the way forecast. There wouldn’t be enough EVs to meet the demand required in the UK.”
Manufacturers in the UK are subject to the zero-emission vehicle mandate (ZEV), which stipulates the proportion of green vehicles manufacturers must sell. It is 28 per cent this year, rising to 80 per cent by 2030.
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A review of the measures had been pencilled in for 2027, but industry leaders said the date would have to be brought forward as a result of the EU’s shift in position. “It’s inevitable the review would have to come forward because the divergence between the EU and UK would be too great,” a senior source at one of the UK’s biggest car manufacturers said.
Weber told German media that the EU would scrap the 2035 ban and look at a phased approach to a 90 per cent reduction in internal combustion engine use.
One former executive of a major UK carmaker said that the UK and Europe needed to be in lockstep because of the trading position. He said: “A big portion of the product produced here is shipped outside of the UK. And a big portion of the vehicles that are sold here come in from outside of the UK, but are built to similar specification.
“I think it’s inevitable it will have to follow, because if I think back to when we were having conversations with the government and European legislators about Brexit and the implications of diverging policy and regulation at that time, it was clear to everybody that whatever the UK does, it has to follow EU regulations. The UK market is not big enough to stand alone in terms of product offer and engineering.”
Labour pledged in its manifesto to reinstate the 2030 ban after years of chopping and changing of regulations under the Conservative administration. Under existing rules, carmakers that miss the ZEV mandate target in a given year will be required to pay £12,000 for every car required to reach that target. This has been paused until 2030, allowing manufacturers that miss the targets to make up for it in later years to avoid fines.
Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves at a Jaguar Land Rover factory in Birmingham in April. The 2030 ban was a manifesto pledge
KIRSTY WIGGLESWORTH/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Ministers have also allowed the sale of new hybrid cars to continue in the UK until 2035. The former executive said: “We spent a lot of money closing internal combustion engine facilities when we felt that it was all going to go to EV. Now, clearly, customers are not buying at the rate that was expected. So people are having to add internal combustion engine capacity to support hybrids, which on a personal basis, I think is the right solution.”
EV advocates oppose any weakening of regulations. Chris Heron, the secretary-general of E-Mobility Europe, the trade body, said: “Europe must keep a clear investment signal for the shift to electric vehicles. Weakening the 2035 target would be a worrying backwards step, dragging us back to yesterday’s technologies and undermining the industries investing in Europe’s electric future”
A government spokesman said: “We remain committed to phasing out all new non-zero emission car and van sales by 2035. More drivers than ever are choosing electric, and November saw another month of increased sales with EV’s accounting for one in four cars sold.”