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Chileans are expected to elect a conservative hardliner over a communist candidate in a presidential run-off on Sunday, as concerns over crime and immigration roil one of Latin America’s wealthiest nations.
José Antonio Kast, a hard right former lawmaker who wants to build a barrier on Chile’s border and deport about 300,000 undocumented migrants, is projected to win 58 per cent of the vote, according to research group Cadem’s latest poll.
His opponent, Jeannette Jara, a life-long member of Chile’s Communist party who is representing the ruling leftwing coalition, scored 42 per cent.
Kast’s lead suggests a strong rightward shift in public opinion, six years after mass protests over the cost of living and inequality triggered a national debate over Chile’s market-based economic model, leading to the election of leftwing former student leader Gabriel Boric.
Since then, Chile has suffered an unprecedented wave of organised crime, as gangs from elsewhere in Latin America gained a foothold in the country for the first time. The phenomenon has coincided with a big increase in irregular immigration from crisis-stricken Venezuela.
Crime and migration are voters’ top concerns, according to polls.
“The country is in a terrible mess,” said Freddy Castrizelo, an 80-year-old retiree in central Santiago who voted for Kast, accusing Boric’s government of “complacency” on crime and migration.
Kast, who split with Chile’s traditional right a decade ago, has tapped into those frustrations.
“Kast has been very successful in reading the mood in Chile,” said Kenneth Bunker, a Chilean political analyst. “He has spent years presenting himself as the person who can restore law and order.”
On top of his pledges for border control and mass deportations, Kast promises to toughen jail sentences and prison conditions to tackle gang crime, and cut taxes and regulations to boost lacklustre economic growth.
Kast told the Financial Times this month that such policies would bolster the strong security and economic stability that Chileans have historically enjoyed, compared with the rest of the region.
“Chileans are yearning for radical change . . . to get back what we have lost,” he said.
Jara has pledged to introduce a monthly minimum “living income” worth $820, topping up wages via subsidies to companies and direct state transfers. She also plans to beef up state presence in the neighbourhoods most affected by organised crime and tackle money laundering.
Mitzy Fortes Sura, a 65-year-old carer in Santiago who voted for Jara said Kast “scares” her “a lot”. “He doesn’t reach out to people who don’t agree with him,” she said. “Jara is an empathetic person who connects with the people.”
At a campaign event on Wednesday, Jara accused Kast of “sowing fear”.
“I choose to sow hope,” she said. “As president of Chile, I will make important changes to improve our quality of life.”
Jeannette Jara at a campaign rally in Santiago on Wednesday © Raul Bravo/AFP/Getty Images
Jara narrowly defeated Kast in the first-round election in November, where the rightwing vote was split between three candidates. Kast is now highly favoured to pick up the votes of eliminated candidates Evelyn Matthei, a traditional conservative, and Johannes Kaiser, a radical libertarian.
Pollsters say it is less clear where the 19.7 per cent of votes scored by third-place finisher, populist economist Franco Parisi, will go. Parisi has told voters to cast a blank ballot, saying Chile is “neither fascist nor Communist”.
Kast and Jara both carry political baggage that analysts say may deter centrist voters.
Jara served as labour minister in the current government, whose approval ratings have rarely topped 30 per cent in the last two years. She belongs to Chile’s Communist party, whose leaders continue to support authoritarian governments in Venezuela and Cuba, though she has criticised the party’s most hardline positions.
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Kast is a deeply conservative father of nine, who on previous presidential runs pushed to undo Chile’s partial legalisation of abortion. He has also expressed support for Chile’s former military dictator Augusto Pinochet. He lost the 2021 presidential run-off to Boric.
However Kast has largely avoided such divisive culture war issues during this campaign, analysts say.
“Voters today seem less concerned with Kast’s hard right ideological identity, and more concerned with the material issues he has focused on,” said Bunker.
Additional reporting by John Bartlett in Santiago