2m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 9:49pm
Prices picking up in the US as Trump tariffs take effect
There has been a lot of commentary that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs will just end up hurting his own population, as importers pass extra import taxes onto US consumers.
The latest US inflation data from June just dropped. It shows prices on goods that are typically imported are rising.
Prices for furnishings and durable household equipment jumped 1.3%, the biggest gain since March 2022. Recreational goods and vehicles prices shot up 0.9%, the most since February 2024. Prices for clothing and footwear rose 0.4%.
Central banks typically keep rates higher to tackle inflation.
The fears about tariffs kicking off price hikes again in the US economy have been so significant, some commentators think this could de-rail hopes of lower interest rates in the US.
This week, the US Federal Reserve keep rates on hold again, much to the dismay of President Trump, who has been launching blistering attacks on its chair, Jerome Powell.
“The Fed is unlikely to welcome the inflation dynamics currently taking hold,” said Fitch Ratings’ head of US economic research, Olu Sonola, just told Reuters.
“Rather than converging toward target, inflation is now clearly diverging from it. This trajectory is likely to complicate current expectations for a rate cut in September or October.”
8m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 9:43pmCanada’s planned recognition of Palestine will make it ‘very hard’ on trade deal, Trump says
Yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his country intends to recognise a Palestinian state.
Today, Donald Trump said that his decision would make it “very hard to for us to make a Trade deal with them”, in a post on his Truth Social.
As we reported earlier, the two sides have been working on negotiating a trade deal by the August 1 deadline.
(Supplied: Truth Social via Donald Trump)
15m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 9:36pm
US markets trading down as tariff deadline looms
Financial markets globally went into a tailspin when US President Donald Trump first announced tariffs on a range of countries earlier this year.
As we wait for an executive order to be signed today, Wall Street is currently posting its third day of losses. But the losses are nowhere near what we saw back in April.
The Dow Jones is off about 0.7% while the sub-indexes are off less than this. It’s not just tariff hesitancy in the mix today either, with markets digesting the US rate hold call too.
That all said, analysts are warning of bumpy times.
“Well, obviously this is a very busy few days in terms of central bank meetings, we had the FOMC meeting and the fallout there,” InTouch Capital Markets Senior FX Analyst Sean Callow said this week.
“[We’re also watching the fallout from] US economic data, US GDP, Bank of Japan’s [interest rate decision], and trade deadlines.
“So we’re being bombarded by trade. Trade news, supposed deals and planned deals. So there’s a great deal going on.”
22m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 9:29pm
Tracking Trump’s tariffs
While we wait to hear more from the White House about the coming orders on tariffs, here’s a look at how things currently stand.
“Reciprocal” tariffs: Country-specific tariffs between 11-50pc were imposed in April, then paused. The pause expires at midnight, local time (2pm AEST). Some amounts are set to change. They do not affect Australia.”Fentanyl” tariffs: 25pc tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been in place since March, with some exemptions, and Donald Trump is threatening to lift them to 30-35pc.China tariffs: A 145pc tariff on Chinese imports has been paused until mid-August. For now, minimum 30pc tariffs apply, with some exemptions.Sector-specific tariffs: Steel, aluminium and (from August 1) copper products have 50pc tariffs. Imported cars and parts have 25pc tariffs.Deals: The US says it has made deals with at least eight trading partners, including the UK, EU and six Asian nations. They include tariffs of 10-20pc.”Baseline” tariff: Almost all other imports, including most imports from Australia, are subject to the 10pc “baseline” tariff. But Trump has indicated he could lift that to 15-20pc.
32m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 9:19pm
35pc tariff on Canada still on the cards, says US Commerce Secretary
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that a 35 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods not covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is still “surely in the cards”.
Mr Lutnick said in an interview on Fox Business Network’s that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney could still convince Mr Trump to back down ahead of the August 1 deadline.
(Reuters: Amber Bracken)
“If he makes that call, and if he starts turning on the charm, and if he takes off his retaliation … and stops the silliness, maybe the president will let it down a bit,” Mr Lutnick said.
“But right now, 35 per cent, that letter he sent, is surely in the cards.”
He’s referring to a letter that Mr Trump sent to the Canadian prime minister claiming that the US would impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian goods as of August 1.
The two sides have been working on negotiating a trade deal by that deadline, but Trump said last week they may not be able to reach a negotiated deal, suggesting the unilateral tariff rate could be imposed.
Reporting with Reuters
43m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 9:07pm
Trump’s press conference is over
The Donald Trump has wrapped up his press conference.
He touched on Gaza, Jerome Powell, Russia and signed an executive order to reinstate the presidential fitness test — but no word on tariffs.
We’ll let you know if and when we hear more.
51m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 8:59pm
Trump launches another attack on Jerome Powell
The US president has been singling out the chair of the US Federal Reserve for months now, and he’s just made more blistering comments, calling him “not a very smart guy”.
The central bank has been keeping interest rates in the US on hold, much to Mr Trump’s disdain.
(Reuters: Kent Nishimura)
Central banks typically keep rates higher to tackle inflation. And there has been commentary that the US president’s tariffs could push up prices for US consumers if and when producers pass them on.
This week, the Fed held rates again.
Unsurprisingly, Mr Trump isn’t happy, and he had this to say about Mr Powell when just asked about the decision by reporters.
“He’s a terrible federal reserve chairman,” he told reporters.
Defending the board’s rates decision this week, Mr Powell noted the importance of central bank decisions being independent from politicians.
“If you were not to have that, there’d be a great temptation of course to use interest rates to affect elections, for example,” Powell said. “I think it’s very important.”
59m agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 8:52pm
It could be hours before Trump signs the executive order
US President Donald Trump has been holding a press conference but there was no executive order signed over tariffs. Reporters had been told this a few hours earlier.
(Youtube: The White House)
Journalist: Just on the tariffs. What are the logistics for imposing those? Does the president have to sign an executive order tonight? What’s the timing?
Press secretary Karoline Leavitt: Yes, and he will be signing an executive order, at some point this afternoon or later this evening.
It’s currently around 5pm in Washington, so Trump has quite a few hours to deadline according to these comments.
1h agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 8:44pm
The Australian industries impacted by US tariffs
The US is Australia’s second-largest two-way trading partner, behind China.
But for the US, we’re relatively small fry.
Australia usually maintains a trade deficit with the US, meaning it imports more than it exports. But it still doesn’t buy enough US goods to show up in the US’s top 10 ranked importers.
Australia’s most valuable exports to the US are services, and while the flow of that trade can be hemmed or reduced through visa and travel restrictions, they can’t be tariffed in the same way as goods arriving at a US port.
The US was Australia’s most valuable beef export market in 2023/24, a year in which the value of total beef exports hit a record high of $14.68 billion.
We also export around $1.6b in pharma products to the US, mostly from one company CSL, in the form of blood products.
Overall, while it’s a sizeable market, the US is just one of Australia’s trading partners.
It’s worth about 6% of our exports.
China is worth more than 5 times that.
1h agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 8:33pm
Worst of tariff fallout could be to come: RBA deputy governor
Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser was speaking in Sydney yesterday and (of course) was asked about the potential economic fallout from the US tariffs.
Mr Hauser said, so far, the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs has been “substantially better than feared in the worst case”.
“Maybe the system globally, and perhaps in Australia too, is more resilient than we first feared — that would obviously be good news,” Mr Hauser said.
However, the central bank official also noted a “more worrying” reason the fallout perhaps hasn’t been so bad, so far: “I say this particularly as someone who comes to the UK, is that it’s coming, it just hasn’t come yet.”
“You might remember when Brexit occurred, everyone rushed to the exit and nothing happened. But my goodness me, 10 years on I think it’s fair to say things are happening,” Mr Hauser said.
“We need to be, I think, a bit careful about doing this, ‘well, the global economy is a rubber ball, it’s all bounced perfectly back and nothing’s happened’.
“If those tariffs stick, there’s a real tax increase, someone has to pay it — there’s obviously an interesting question about who.”
1h agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 8:24pmUS President Donald Trump is speaking
It’s unclear if we will hear about specific orders about tariffs at this press conference, or if more detail will come out in coming hours, as hinted by spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt at the White House.
1h agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 8:15pmTrump agrees to 90-day negotiating period with Mexico
Just hours before the deadline, Mr Trump gave Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs to negotiate a broader trade deal.
The extension, which avoids a 30 per cent tariff on most Mexican non-automotive and non-metal goods compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, came after a call between Mr Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
“We avoided the tariff increase announced for tomorrow,” Sheinbaum wrote in an X social media post, adding that the Trump call was “very good.”
(Supplied: X via Claudia Sheinbaum)1h agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 8:03pmUS and China close to a trade deal, White House says
That’s according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
He has told reporters the US has the “makings of a deal” with China but this is “not 100% done”.
China has been hardest hit by US tariffs and has been given until August 12 to reach an agreement with the States. The back and forth between the US and China has upended some crucial markets, including rare earth magnets.
The tariffs on the economic superpower have also been indirectly impacting Australian companies that manufacture in China and sell in the US, from toy companies to bikini brands.
For more on this indirect impact to Australian companies, check out this story of mine from back in April!
2h agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 7:50pmCountries with no deal will hear from US by midnight, White House says
Countries that haven’t negotiated a trade deal or received a tariff letter from the Trump administration will be hearing the from the US about the terms of trade by the end of the day, the White House said.
“The trade team has been working around the clock to try to be in correspondence with as many countries as possible, but if they haven’t heard from us yet, they will in the form of a letter or an executive order by midnight tonight,” spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters at the White House.
“So, yes, tomorrow, August 1st, the reciprocal rates will be going into effect.”
(Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)2h agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 7:39pmWhat could Trump’s tariff announcements mean for Australia?
The August 1 deadline was the date for Donald Trump’s higher, so-called “reciprocal” tariffs against some countries to come into effect, after earlier pauses and delays.
Australia was among the countries hit with the “baseline” 10 per cent tariff back in April.
It remains unclear what today’s announcements could bring for Australia and others that fared relatively well out of April’s “Liberation Day”.
In recent comments, Mr Trump has raised the potential of a new tariff for “the rest of the world”, outside the various deals he’s been striking, “somewhere in the 15 to 20 per cent range”.
Australia has lifted restrictions on the import of US beef, a measure the US president had singled out in April’s tariff announcements.
Read this analysis from North America correspondent Carrington Clarke from earlier this week for more on the state of US-Australia relations:
2h agoThu 31 Jul 2025 at 7:39pm
Welcome to the blog
Good morning and welcome to our live coverage.
My name is Maddy Morwood and I will be joined by ABC’s business reporter Emilia Terzon to bring you the latest on Donald Trump’s higher “reciprocal” tariffs.
We’re expecting Mr Trump to sign an executive order this morning as his August 1 deadline looms after earlier pauses and delays.
Stay with us as we bring you the latest.