Released: 2025-12-17
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Canada
Newfoundland and Labrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
British Columbia
Yukon
Northwest Territories
Nunavut
Quarterly population estimate — Canada
41,575,585
October 1, 2025
-0.2% 
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — Canada
2,847,737
October 1, 2025
-5.8%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — Canada
102,867
Third quarter 2025
-17.2%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — N.L.
549,738
October 1, 2025
-0.0%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — N.L.
18,544
October 1, 2025
-1.9%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — N.L.
1,222
Third quarter 2025
-24.6%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — P.E.I.
182,508
October 1, 2025
-0.1%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — P.E.I.
11,044
October 1, 2025
-6.9%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — P.E.I.
452
Third quarter 2025
-53.9%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — N.S.
1,091,857
October 1, 2025
-0.1%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — N.S.
56,083
October 1, 2025
-5.3%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — N.S.
2,450
Third quarter 2025
-32.3%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — N.B.
868,630
October 1, 2025
-0.1%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — N.B.
37,656
October 1, 2025
-6.5%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — N.B.
2,971
Third quarter 2025
-28.2%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — Que.
9,058,089
October 1, 2025
-0.0%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — Que.
546,323
October 1, 2025
-2.8%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — Que.
18,259
Third quarter 2025
9.9% 
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — Ont.
16,191,372
October 1, 2025
-0.4%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — Ont.
1,283,070
October 1, 2025
-7.7%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — Ont.
43,205
Third quarter 2025
-15.8%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — Man.
1,507,057
October 1, 2025
-0.2%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — Man.
84,278
October 1, 2025
-7.0%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — Man.
4,640
Third quarter 2025
-31.9%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — Sask.
1,266,234
October 1, 2025
-0.1%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — Sask.
47,503
October 1, 2025
-5.9%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — Sask.
3,406
Third quarter 2025
-43.7%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — Alta.
5,040,871
October 1, 2025
0.2%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — Alta.
281,857
October 1, 2025
-3.6%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — Alta.
12,963
Third quarter 2025
-23.3%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — B.C.
5,683,201
October 1, 2025
-0.3%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — B.C.
478,121
October 1, 2025
-5.2%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — B.C.
13,025
Third quarter 2025
-17.6%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — Y.T.
48,261
October 1, 2025
-0.0%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — Y.T.
1,948
October 1, 2025
-7.9%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — Y.T.
165
Third quarter 2025
-40.2%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — N.W.T.
45,848
October 1, 2025
-0.2%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — N.W.T.
1,015
October 1, 2025
-1.7%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — N.W.T.
88
Third quarter 2025
-17.0%
(year-over-year change)
Quarterly population estimate — Nvt.
41,919
October 1, 2025
0.2%
(quarterly change)
Estimate of the number of non-permanent residents — Nvt.
295
October 1, 2025
3.5%
(quarterly change)
Estimated quarterly flow of immigrants — Nvt.
21
Third quarter 2025
23.5%
(year-over-year change)
Canada’s population decreases from July 1 to October 1, 2025
Preliminary demographic estimates indicate that Canada’s population decreased by 76,068 people (-0.2%) over the third quarter of 2025, standing at 41,575,585 on October 1, 2025.
These preliminary estimates—which will be updated in upcoming releases following the usual process from Statistics Canada’s Demographic Estimates Program—show that the population decrease was mainly due to a drop in non-permanent residents. This trend is the result of changing government policies concerning international migration.
By comparison, in the third quarter of 2023 (+418,634; +1.0%) Canada saw its highest quarterly population growth rate since the second quarter of 1957 (+198,000; +1.2%). In the third quarter of 2024, the population increased by 231,803 people (+0.6%).
How demographic estimates are calculated and maintained
Statistics Canada releases its preliminary demographic estimates approximately three months after the reference date. For example, new demographic estimates are released today for October 1, 2025. They reflect the most accurate picture of the Canadian population using information that is currently available.
To produce preliminary estimates, Statistics Canada combines timely administrative data with models. Updated and final estimates are based on more accurate data and require less modelling but are available later. As a result, the population decrease noted today could be smaller, or greater, or even turn into an increase when the estimates are updated in a few months, after more complete and accurate administrative data become available.
For more information about how the population estimates are calculated, readers can access the updated methodological document also released today, entitled Technical Guide on Demographic Estimates at Statistics Canada.
Ontario (-0.4%) and British Columbia (-0.3%) saw the largest population decrease in the third quarter of 2025, followed by Manitoba and the Northwest Territories (both -0.2%). Every province and territory except Alberta and Nunavut (both +0.2%) saw population decreases, according to preliminary estimates.
While the growth in Alberta remained positive, it was the lowest for this province since the second quarter of 2021 (+0.1%), when border restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19 were still in place.
Non-permanent residents have the largest impact on population change
Preliminary estimates show that the reduction in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada (-176,479) in the third quarter of 2025 was the primary reason for the decrease in Canada’s population over this period.
This drop in non-permanent residents surpassed the decreases in the second (-58,719) and first (-55,194) quarters of 2025 and was the largest since comparable records began (the third quarter of 1971).
With these preliminary estimates, every province and territory had fewer non-permanent residents on October 1, 2025, than on July 1, 2025 (excluding Nunavut, +10). The largest decrease was seen in Ontario (-107,280), followed by British Columbia (-26,242), Quebec (-15,989) and Alberta (-10,605).
On October 1, 2025, there were 2,847,737 non-permanent residents in Canada (6.8% of the total population), down from 3,024,216 on July 1, 2025 (7.3% of the total population). The decrease in the estimated number of non-permanent residents was the result of larger, record-high outflows (339,505)—that is, permits expiring—compared with inflows (163,026), which reflect permits issued.
Estimates on the total number of non-permanent residents in Canada are available back to July 1, 2021. On that date, there were 1,361,855 non-permanent residents in the country (3.6% of the total population). This increased to a peak of 3,149,131 (7.6% of the total population) on October 1, 2024, and has decreased in every subsequent quarter.
Decrease in number of non-permanent residents mostly attributable to study permit holders
The decrease in the number of non-permanent residents in the third quarter of 2025 was attributable to the drop in study permit holders only (-73,682) and in work and study permit holders (-67,616), with a smaller drop in work permit holders only (-35,231). The decrease in study permit holders only was concentrated in Ontario (-47,511) and British Columbia (-14,291), both of which also have the highest number of study permit holders.
The number of asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups increased (+7,324) in the third quarter of 2025, up for the 15th quarter in a row to a record-high 504,767. Nevertheless, the increase in the third quarter for this group was the smallest since the first quarter of 2022 (+5,675).
Permanent immigration continues at levels similar to recent quarters
While temporary immigration was the primary reason for the drop in the total population in the third quarter of 2025, this was partly offset by permanent immigration. Canada welcomed 102,867 immigrants, similar to the quarterly increases seen since the fourth quarter of 2024. This number is in line to meet Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
Differences between data on non-permanent residents from Statistics Canada and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
Statistics Canada collaborates closely with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and other federal departments to estimate the number of non-permanent residents living in Canada. The demographic estimates from Statistics Canada are updated on an ongoing basis, as new or revised data become available from its partners. Caution should be exercised when comparing data on non-permanent residents from Statistics Canada’s Demographic Estimates Program with temporary residents and asylum claimants from IRCC due to the different objectives of the two organizations.
Please see “Non-permanent residents data at Statistics Canada” and “How does Statistics Canada estimate the number of non-permanent residents?.” These products define non-permanent resident data at Statistics Canada and the various data sources available to users.
Population growth at the national level is the result of natural increase (births minus deaths) and international migration (immigrants and net non-permanent residents minus net emigration). With Canada now experiencing “ultra-low fertility,” the low level of natural increase (+17,600) in the third quarter of 2025 was more than offset by losses from international migration (-93,668).
Ontario sees its smallest net loss to other provinces and territories since 2020
The third quarter of 2025 saw 75,758 interprovincial migrants in Canada, a 5.5% decrease from the third quarter of 2024 (80,146 migrants). The numbers of interprovincial migrants in the third quarters of 2024 and 2025 were closer to the third quarter levels seen from 2009 to 2019 (ranging from 71,976 to 89,862) than the third quarter levels seen from 2021 to 2023 (ranging from 95,279 to 99,721). This could mark a return to levels of interprovincial migration from before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Most provinces and all the territories had net losses in their exchanges with other provinces or territories in the third quarter of 2025, except Alberta (+5,652), British Columbia (+1,504), Nova Scotia (+441) and Prince Edward Island (+258). The net loss for Ontario (-972) was the smallest the province has seen in any quarter since the fourth quarter of 2020 (-386).
Note to readers
The demographic estimates for the third quarter of 2025 released today are considered preliminary and will be updated following the standard procedure followed by Statistics Canada for decades. They are based on 2021 Census counts, adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements. To these counts, the population growth estimates for the period from May 11, 2021, to the date of the estimate are added.
Statistics Canada’s demographic estimates are updated every year through its usual process, alongside the annual September release for the second quarter. Several factors may explain why preliminary estimates differ from the updated and final estimates released later. For example, if there is a long gap between the expiration of one non-permanent resident permit and the issuance of the next, it may result in a decrease of one person in the preliminary estimates; however, this would not be reflected in the updated and final estimates. Moreover, the schedule for updated and final estimates provides more time for receiving late registrations of births and deaths, as well as for using more complete data sources, such as annual tax files used to measure interprovincial migration.
Canada’s population clock (real-time model)
Canada’s population clock (real-time model) was updated today with the most recent data from quarterly population estimates released by Statistics Canada.
Canada’s population clock is an interactive learning tool aiming to give Canadians a sense of the pace of the country’s population renewal. The population estimates and census counts remain the measures used by various government programs.
Definitions
For the purpose of calculating rates, the denominator is the average population during the period (the average of the start-of-period and end-of-period populations). For the sake of brevity, the terms growth, population growth and population growth rate have the same meaning.
Population growth or total growth in Canada is equal to natural increase (births minus deaths) plus international migratory increase (immigrants plus net non-permanent residents minus net emigration). At the provincial and territorial level, total population growth also includes interprovincial migratory increase.
Net international migration refers to the total number of moves between Canada and abroad that result in a change in the usual place of residence. It is calculated by adding immigrants, returning emigrants and net non-permanent residents, then subtracting emigrants.
An immigrant refers to a person who is a permanent resident or a landed immigrant. Such a person has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities. Persons who are born abroad to a Canadian parent are not immigrants but are included in the returning emigrant component. For Statistics Canada’s Demographic Estimates Program, the terms immigrant, landed immigrant and permanent resident refer to the same concept.
Non-permanent resident refers to a person from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada and who has a work or study permit, or who has claimed refugee status (asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups). Family members living with work or study permit holders are also included unless these family members are already Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (permanent residents) or non-permanent residents themselves. For Statistics Canada’s Demographic Estimates Program, the terms non-permanent resident and temporary immigrant refer to the same concept. Caution should be exercised when comparing data on non-permanent residents from Statistics Canada’s Demographic Estimates Program with temporary residents and asylum claimants from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), due to the different objectives of the two organizations.
Permit holders and their family members are non-permanent residents who are not asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups but who hold a permit (for work, study or temporary residence). This classification also includes their family members who are not Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (permanent residents) or non-permanent residents themselves.
Persons who claimed refugee status include asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups. Separate estimates for asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups are not available. Asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups are defined as:
Asylum claimant refers to a foreign national who has made a refugee claim while in Canada on a temporary basis and whose claim is pending decision.
Protected person refers to a person who has made a claim in Canada and received a positive decision. For population estimates, protected persons leave this population if they obtain permanent residence.
Related groups include those who received a negative decision or withdrew or abandoned their claim and have not yet regularized their status or departed Canada.
Interprovincial migration represents all movement from one province or territory to another involving a change in the usual place of residence. A person who takes up residence in another province or territory is an out-migrant with reference to the province or territory of origin and an in-migrant with reference to the province or territory of destination.
Acknowledgements
The Demographic Estimates Program of Statistics Canada is grateful for the ongoing partnership with IRCC, which greatly contributes to the accuracy of the estimations of immigrants and non-permanent residents.
Products
The product “Quarterly demographic estimates, provinces and territories: Interactive dashboard” (Catalogue number71-607-X) is available.
The product “Quarterly estimates of international migration components, provinces and territories: Interactive dashboard” (Catalogue number71-607-X) is also available.
The product “Quarterly estimates of the number of non-permanent residents by type, provinces and territories: Interactive dashboard” (Catalogue number71-607-X) is also available.
The product “Canada’s population clock (real-time model)” (Catalogue number71-607-X) is also available.
The product “Technical Guide on Demographic Estimates at Statistics Canada” (Catalogue number91-528-X) is also available.
The Population and demography statistics, Immigrants and Non-permanent Residents Statistics and Older adults and population aging statistics portals are also available.
Contact information
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).