The winter holiday season is here and ECFR is pleased to share the most popular policy papers and articles published over 2025. Thank you to our readers for following our work over the last 12 months—especially as this time of intense geopolitical shift sets the stage for critical developments in 2026.
Trump’s presence looms large
The year was marked by US president Donald Trump’s trade war and, in the later months, his National Security Strategy. ECFR’s fourth edition of the European Sentiment Compass argues that most of what is happening in today’s transatlantic relationship is part of the culture war, with its author Pawel Zerka drawing a parallel with the film The Truman Show:Europe is stuck inside the screen while Trump’s America is in the director’s chair.
Events in Ukraine continue to dominate global discourse, with ceasefire negotiations involving Trump’s 28-point “peace plan” and ongoing disputes over Russia’s frozen assets. In America’s immediate neighbourhood, Trump has further escalated tensions through his high tariffs and involvement in Venezuela. Meanwhile, the EU continues to struggle to define its role amid complex global developments—issues such as enlargement and economic stability are high on the agenda.
Deadly modern warfare
Across Africa, places such as the Central African Republic and Mali are susceptible to disinformation and increased military intervention, courtesy of Russia; countries like Ethiopia are experiencing conflicts with an extra edge of brutality due to drone warfare. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Israel and Palestine’s uneasy ceasefire continues to hold—as Palestine searches for the solution to long-term political renewal.
As the year closes, the world is preparing for a volatile 2026, set to be defined by the consequences of unresolved conflicts. Ceasefires are in sight, but be prepared for shifting alliances as decision-makers work towards the best ways to protect Europe’s security.
2025 round-up
Here are the ten most popular policy briefs, commentaries and policy alerts of 2025.
Policy briefs
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections by Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard and Timothy Garton Ash
About the brief: Trump’s return reshaped global public opinion, showing declining trust in US leadership and growing expectations for Europe to act independently. Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard and Timothy Garton Ash argue that the EU faces increased isolation—but has a new responsibility to defend multilateralism and democratic norms.
Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion by Tobias Gehrke
About the brief: Tobias Gehrke argues that Europe possesses significant but underused economic and regulatory leverage to resist potential Trump-era coercion across the trade, security and political domains.
Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump by Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli and Pawel Zerka
About the brief: Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli and Pawel Zerka explain how Trumpism has weakened European confidence in US reliability and is reshaping public opinion across Europe beyond any single administration.
MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe by Célia Belin
About the brief: Célia Belin argues that Trumpism operates as an exportable political project that seeks to weaken the EU by empowering nationalist and illiberal forces from within.
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump by Jeremy Shapiro and Zsuzsanna Végh
About the brief: Jeremy Shapiro and Zsuzsanna Végh demonstrate that Orban’s Hungary provides a practical model for illiberal governance, media capture and culture-war politics that resonate strongly with Trump and his allies.
Trump’s European revolution by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
About the brief: Trump’s influence is accelerating political realignment in Europe by legitimising far-right movements and intensifying democratic backsliding, argue Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard.
Reality show: Why Europe must not cave in Trump’s culture war by Pawel Zerka
About the brief: Pawel Zerka’s take on The Truman Show explains how importing US-style culture wars risks deepening polarisation in Europe, making resistance essential to preserving liberal democratic norms.
Deadly skies: Drone warfare in Ethiopia and the future of conflict in Africa by Zecharias Zelalem
About the brief: Zecharias Zelalem shows how deadly regional conflict across Ethiopia demonstrate how cheap drone technology is transforming warfare in Africa by lowering barriers to military escalation.
Defending Europe with less America by Camille Grand
About the brief: Reduced US security commitments require Europe to rapidly strengthen its defence capabilities, coordination and strategic autonomy, argues Camille Grand.
The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa by Will Brown
About the brief: Will Brown analyses how Russia’s growing influence in Africa relies on disinformation, political manipulation and proxy actors—and why this demands a more integrated European response to hybrid threats.
Drones in Ukraine: Four lessons for the West by Ulrike Franke
About the commentary: Ukraine’s battlefield experience shows how inexpensive drones are transforming warfare and exposing gaps in Western military doctrine, procurement and air defence.
Ukraine, Russia, and the Minsk agreements: A post-mortem by Marie Dumoulin
About the commentary: The failure of the Minsk agreements reveals how diplomatic frameworks based on false assumptions about Russian intentions can entrench—rather than resolve—conflict.
Letter from Washington: Why we hate Trump by Jeremy Shapiro
About the commentary: Opposition to Trump among American elites reflects deep concerns about democratic erosion at home and the destabilisation of America’s global leadership.
How to prevent the next war in Europe: A five-point plan by Claudia Major, Carlo Masala, Christian Mölling and Jana Puglierin
About the commentary: Preventing future war in Europe requires sustained deterrence, stronger military capabilities, political unity and long-term strategic planning.
Topple, tame, trade: How Turkey is rewriting Syria’s future by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş
About the commentary: Turkey is reshaping northern Syria through military control, governance structures and economic integration to secure long-term influence.
Iran, Hamas and Islamic Jihad: A marriage of convenience by Erik Skare
About the commentary: Iran’s ties to Hamas and Islamic Jihad are pragmatic partnerships driven by shared enemies rather than ideological alignment.
Letter from Washington: Why Trump ignores Europe by Jeremy Shapiro
About the commentary: Trump’s disregard for Europe stems from a transactional worldview that devalues alliances and multilateral cooperation.
Why America is facing off against the International Criminal Court by Anthony Dworkin
About the commentary: US resistance to the ICC reflects longstanding concerns over sovereignty, legal exposure and limits on international accountability.
Drones in Ukraine and beyond: Everything you need to know by Ulrike Franke
About the commentary: The proliferation of drones is lowering the cost of military power and changing how wars are fought both in Ukraine and globally.
Why the EU should pay attention to Italy’s and Albania’s migration gamble by Arturo Varvelli and Angela Ziccardi
About the commentary: The faltering of Italy and Albania’s migration deal demonstrates how externalisation harms migrants and weakens EU cohesion. Instead, the EU needs a unified strategy.
Policy alerts
When the chips are down: Nexperia, Europe and the US-China trade and tech war by Herman Quarles van Ufford
About the policy alert: The Nexperia case highlights Europe’s growing vulnerability in the escalating US–China competition over technology and supply chains.
Bering bad news: Trump, Putin and European lessons from the Alaska summit by Kirill Shamiev
About the policy alert: The Trump–Putin summit underscored Europe’s marginal role in great-power diplomacy and the risks of relying on US leadership.
Why Europeans, Arab states and the Trump administration must work together to ensure a sustainable Gaza ceasefire by Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada
About the policy alert: A lasting Gaza ceasefire depends on coordinated diplomacy linking security, reconstruction, and political incentives.
Enemy number one: What Putin’s foreign policy speech says about Europe by Anton Barbashin
About the policy alert: Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric frames Europe as a primary adversary, signalling a long-term strategy of confrontation with the EU.
A dangerous gamble: Republika Srpska’s test for Bosnia and the EU by Adnan Ćerimagić
About the policy alert: Secessionist moves by Republika Srpska threaten Bosnia’s stability and test the EU’s credibility in the Western Balkans.
What went wrong in Europe’s trade gamble with Trump by Tobias Gehrke
About the policy alert: Europe’s attempt to placate Trump through trade concessions failed to alter US behaviour or reduce economic pressure.
Greenland with envy: How Europeans should respond to Trump’s obsession by Katrine Westgaard
About the policy alert: Trump’s interest in Greenland highlights rising Arctic geopolitics and Europe’s need to take regional security more seriously.
Lethal weapon: Why Europe can’t afford to blink on China’s rare earth blackmail by Janka Oertel
About the policy alert: China’s control over rare earths exposes a critical strategic vulnerability in Europe’s industrial and security base.
Filling the void: Why the EU should step up amid Trump’s foreign aid cuts by Coline Le Piouff
About the policy alert: US aid retrenchment creates a leadership vacuum that the EU must fill to protect stability and influence abroad.
Israeli strikes have reignited Gaza—now Europeans must take action by Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada
About the policy alert: Renewed violence in Gaza demands stronger European diplomatic pressure and humanitarian engagement to prevent escalation.
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The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.