Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Mutual Credit Finance cut their rates for terms 1 to 5 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE ECONOMY MAY BE BLAH, BUT WE ARE STILL BUYING NEW CARS
New car sales in July came in better than year-ago levels at 7633, a minor surprise that they are holding up. But used imports fell on the same basis, down -10.5% to 8063. Also somewhat surprising was the 4021 commercial vehicle sales in July, the best month in the past 18. 4142 of the 8062 new cars were NEVs, but of those only 552 were pure electric vehicles.

20,000+ PAST DUE HOME LOANS
Centrix reported that 21,600 home loans were past due in the June quarter.

LATE PAYMENT LEVELS RISE
Centrix also said 478,000 people were behind on payments in the June quarter with the hospitality sector one of the most vulnerable industries in current economic climate.

BOTTOMED OUT AT LOWER LEVEL
The slump in residential building may have hit the bottom as consents in June were +1% higher than May levels on a seasonally adjusted basis, but -6% lower on an actual basis. Over the past year consents for residential dwelling construction have been level at just shy of 34,000 and have remained around those levels for a year now.. But costs have hit a record high for those consents issued.

PUBLIC SECTOR PULLBACK
After a more solid few months, the value of non-residential building consents in June was down -3.7% from a year ago, and the monthly total of consents was the lowest this year. This fall is all about the public sector pulling back.

NO IMPROVEMENT
ANZ says July consumer confidence stayed weak and inflation expectations nudged over 5%.

CASINOS AGAIN – $5 MLN PENALTY FOR AML BREACHES
A settlement has been reached in the Department of Internal Affairs’ civil proceedings against Christchurch Casinos Limited for alleged breaches of its obligations under the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009. As part of the settlement, Christchurch Casino has admitted all seven causes of action in DIA’s amended statement of claim and has agreed to join DIA in recommending that the High Court impose a penalty of $5.06m on Christchurch Casino.

WARMER BUT WETTER
Parts of New Zealand are likely to experience more wet, warm weather over the next three-month period, with shifting ocean conditions hinting at a possible return to La Niña by the end of the year, according to the latest Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA) Seasonal Climate Outlook for August to October 2025.

NZX50 STARTS THE MONTH UNENTHUSIASTICALLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is starting the month down -0.5% from yesterday, down -0.7% from a week ago, and down -2.4% since the start of the year. It is up +2.2% from a year ago. Heartland, Infratil, Investore, and Oceania gain; SkyCity casino, Kathmandu, a2 Milk, FPH and EBOS are the main decliners.

RECORD HIGH FSF SHAREPICE
(Update): We should probably note that the Fonterra farmer/supplier share price (FSF) has almost hit $7, a record high.

TRUMP TARIFFS SET AT 15%
New Zealand has been hit with ‘reciprocal tariffs’ of 15% – ignoring the fact that we don’t levy tariffs on most US products, although we do have some biosecurity barriers in place. But English and its meanings count for little with the current Administration. Australia has retained a 10% tariff penalty. More here.

AUSSIE PRODUCER INFLATION EASES
Australian producer prices rose 3.4% over the past year to June, down from a 3.7% rate in the year to March, and down from a 4.8% rate in the year to June 2024. Cost pressures are still high, but they are easing, even if slowly.

CAIXIN SURVEY ALSO RETREATS
Like the official China factory PMIs had signaled, the independent Caixin PMI also signaled that their factory sector went backwards in July. The Caixin survey isn’t as negative as the official survey, but it now shows the overall sector in contraction. The Caixin survey tends to account better for mid-sized private manufacturers whereas the official survey includes the very large state-owned enterprises.

FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a separate service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely slightly firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.20% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at just under 1.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.56% but unchanged at 4.53% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at just over 4.38%

EQUITIES LOWER
The local equity market is now down -0.4% in late Friday trade. And the ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.4%. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore has risen +0.2%. Wall Street ended a confused session down -0.4% on the S&P500 in Thursday trade trying to assess the impact of the tariff confusions.

OIL LOWER
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc, now at US$69.50/bbl. But it is down -US$1 at just over US$71.50 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price rose +50c to NZ$56/NZU on the return of some good sized trades today. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$5 from yesterday at US$3292/oz.

NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar is down another -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.8 USc following the reaction to the US tariff setting. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down at 66.7 and a -30 bps retreat. The US dollar has strengthened but only back to the April/May levels.

BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$115,986 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/-1.8%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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