The potential for political trouble is not lost on Trump’s inner circle. In a Vanity Fair article, external published prior to the document release, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles described the people compelled to vote for Trump because of his promises on Epstein as “Joe Rogan listeners” – in other words, younger men who aren’t traditionally into politics.
Wiles has called the story a “hit piece”. But she has not disputed specific quotes, including her assertion that Trump has not yet solidified a lasting Republican majority.
“The people that are inordinately interested in Epstein are the new members of the Trump coalition, the people that I think about all the time – because I want to make sure that they are not [only] Trump voters, they’re Republican voters,” she told the magazine.
Polls and experts back up the chief of staff’s concerns about the tenuous nature of Trump’s coalition.
A survey released in early December by the right-wing Manhattan Institute think tank labelled nearly a third of Trump’s supporters “New Entrant Republicans” – people who voted for the party for the first time in 2024. And the poll found that just over half of that category would “definitely” support a Republican in the 2026 mid-term elections.
“These voters are drawn to Trump but are not reliably attached to the Republican Party,” the institute concluded.
The possible fragility of the Trump coalition is playing out on several different levels.
One crucial group is a collection of social media stars and podcasters who stand mostly outside traditional Republican circles but have clout and influence online.
They were instrumental in keeping social media attention on the Epstein story long after the convicted sex offender’s death.
A group of influencers – including “Libs of TikTok” creator Chaya Raichik, conspiracy theorist and Turning Point USA activist Jack Posobiec, and elections organiser Scott Presler – were even invited to an event at the Department of Justice (DoJ) and given binders, which Bondi described as a “first phase” of Epstein document releases.
Little if anything new was in the binders, which caused a backlash. Outrage swelled further in July after the DoJ released a memo saying that there was no Epstein “client list” and rejecting conspiracy theories about his death in prison.
Yet following the most recent release, many of these same conservative influencers have been curiously silent.
Laura Loomer, a popular Maga social media influencer who has helped spread Epstein conspiracies online, claimed that they exonerated Trump from any wrongdoing.
“Maybe now the media will stop obsessing over these files,” wrote Loomer, who has mentioned Epstein at least 200 times on X this year alone.
Others – including several who were at the DoJ binder event – have not mentioned the document release at all, positively or negatively.
Their silence has been noted by other right-wing and far-right commentators, sparking online Maga infighting. And the row over the Epstein case is just one controversy currently roiling the movement, with arguments over free speech, anti-Semitism and Charlie Kirk’s legacy bursting out into the open at an annual conference put on by Turning Point USA this week.
Jared Holt, senior researcher at Open Measures, a company that analyses online extremism, says the debate over the Epstein files is just one controversy contributing to the challenges facing the Maga movement.
“At the beginning of the year, Maga was a triumphant intimidating cultural force, now the train is falling off the tracks and there’s no clear sign that it will be stabalising or rebounding anytime soon,” he says.
“It seems like the die-hard Trump base has atrophied over the course of the year,” Holt says, but notes that it’s too soon to tell if the recent heavily redacted document drop will have any significant impact on the sorts of “Joe Rogan listeners” Wiles is concerned about.