WRESTLING FOR ANSWERS
SPECIAL RESPONSIBILITY: German leaders find it particularly hard to criticize the Israeli government — for an obvious reason.
Utterly inconceivable: As German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier put it in May, during a commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Germany and Israel, “The fact that Israel and Germany are today joined in profound friendship” was “utterly inconceivable” after the Holocaust.
Ever-conscious: Israel’s decision to “extend a hand to our country was a gift that no German had any right to expect,” Steinmeier went on. “And yet, Israel did extend a hand to us. And we took it, ever conscious of German guilt and of our responsibility. Even 60 years later, I am full of gratitude and full of humility in the face of this gift of reconciliation.”
‘Reason of state’: In a 2008 speech before the Israeli Knesset, Angela Merkel — then chancellor of Germany — declared Israel’s security to be a part of Germany’s Staatsräson, or “reason of state,” on account of her country’s “special historical responsibility.” She added, “These words must not remain empty words in times of trial.”
As global outrage over famine in Gaza grows, this leaves German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a bind. On the one hand, Merz has condemned the Israeli government’s offensive in Gaza in unusually strong terms for a German leader. “To harm the civilian population to such an extent,” he said in May, “can no longer be justified as a fight against Hamas terrorism.”
On the other hand, Germany has yet to take action. Although Merz signaled on Monday for the first time that his government might reconsider lifting its EU-level blockade on sanctioning Israel if there is no progress on the ground, his conservative party has consistently opposed or blocked any concrete measures.
Among the possibilities: Limiting weapons deliveries, a full or partial suspension of the EU’s association agreement with Israel (which provides for close ties on trade and other areas of cooperation) and/or joining a growing cadre of European countries set to recognize Palestinian statehood.
German leverage: The EU has struggled to make an impact since the conflict began. However, if Germany decides to lift its block on a (partial) suspension of the EU’s association agreement with Israel, it could unlock the bloc’s strongest measures yet. “If Germany was looking at moving their position even slightly, that would be decisive,” said an EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
But for now, the German government is sticking to its strategy of using its close ties with Israel to act as a bridge. “I came here with the goal of preventing a rift from opening between the European Union and Israel,” said Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Jerusalem on Thursday after speaking to leading politicians, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “This danger exists, and both sides must work together to prevent it,” he added.
Key trip: Wadephul’s assessment of how willing the Israeli government is to negotiate a ceasefire or open land routes to get help into Gaza will be decisive when Merz and leading ministers meet over the next days to reassess Germany’s position, according to government officials.
Tension mounts: Merz’s conservatives are not only facing increasing pressure from European partners, but also from their internal coalition partner, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). “I would like us to decide on more concrete measures,” Derya Türk-Nachbaur, an SPD lawmaker, told the Bulletin. “Coordinating at the European level also means possibly increasing the pressure with France and England, and perhaps also not blocking measures announced by the EU,” she added. In June, the SPD formally urged the government to stop obstructing a partial suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
Isolation factor: “Israel is in danger of becoming increasingly isolated internationally. I see it as Germany’s duty to do everything possible to prevent this,” Wadephul said in Jerusalem on Thursday. That being said, his own conservatives and Merz seem to be the ones looking increasingly isolated among European leaders when it comes to their positions on Gaza.
MIGRATION U-TURN
GERMAN SHIFT: Past German governments sought to temper Europe’s most hard-line impulses on migration. Now, under Merz, Berlin is vying to lead Europe’s anti-immigration charge. The stark shift in Germany’s stance on migration under its new government promises to accelerate the EU’s hard-right turn on migration as the bloc prepares to implement a series of new measures aimed at drastically reducing the number of asylum-seekers entering Europe — and deporting more of those who do make it in.
Highest peak: In a symbolic example of how Germany’s government is now seeking to propel rather than moderate Europe’s migration shift, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt recently hosted counterparts from several European countries that have tough migration stances — including Austria, Denmark and Poland — on his country’s highest mountain in the Bavarian Alps, the Zugspitze, adorned at its summit with a golden cross. “We want to make it clear that Germany is no longer in the brake house when it comes to migration issues in Europe but is part of the driving force,” Dobrindt said at an elevation of nearly 3,000 meters.
Choosing sides: Germany’s previous left-leaning coalition under former Chancellor Olaf Scholz played a key role in mediating among countries like Greece and Italy — that want more European help in handling the influx of asylum-seekers — and the leaders of nations further north, which want to ensure asylum-seekers aren’t able to migrate from Southern Europe straight to their countries. Within that dynamic, Merz may now advocate the interests of Central and Northern European countries far more firmly. The Zugspitze meeting, where no Southern European leaders were present, illustrates that very point, migration experts say. Full story here.
IN OTHER NEWS
RETURN OF THE BUDGET FIGHT? Despite passing landmark legislation to allow massive new borrowing for defense and infrastructure, Germany’s government has to plug a looming €30 billion budget hole soon in what will pose a major challenge to the coalition government, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned on Wednesday. The 2027 budget “will place massive demands on us in government,” said SPD leader Klingbeil in Berlin. “This will be one of the biggest domestic policy challenges we have to tackle in the next 12 months.” Germany’s previous left-leaning government collapsed due to budget constraints and massive spending disagreements in November of last year.
NAIL-BITING OVER US TROOPS: Berlin and its European partners are growing increasingly nervous ahead of a report from the United States set to decide whether Washington will shift its troops. This comes in light of changing global priorities — especially growing tension in the Indo-Pacific region and pressure to reduce overseas spending. U.S. military support has long been a cornerstone of national security for Germany, which — with around 35,000 American service members stationed across some 35 municipalities — hosts far more U.S. troops than any other country in Europe. One likely result would be removal of the roughly 20,000 members of the U.S. armed forces sent to Europe in 2022 under then-President Joe Biden following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, experts say. Full story from our defense colleague Chris Lunday here.
AUSTRIAN EU AMBO QUITS: Austria’s permanent representative to the EU resigned from his post in Brussels following what the government in Vienna described as “allegations.” His exit comes as a report by Der Standard in Austria named the ambassador, Thomas Oberreiter, in connection with a sexually explicit blog. The report said Oberreiter denied the allegations and that he resigned to save Austria from further embarrassment. POLITICO has not verified the report. Oberreiter handed over his resignation to Austrian Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger on Monday “for personal reasons,” a spokesperson for the Austrian government told POLITICO, adding the acceptance of dismissal “should not be considered as confirmation of the allegations.”
THE WEEK AHEAD
ESPIONAGE TRIAL: The trial against the former aide of far-right Alternative for Germany lawmaker Maximilian Krah starts Tuesday in Dresden. He is accused of espionage for a Chinese secret service.
MINISTERS ON HOLIDAY: While Merz rescheduled his planned holiday (which he’ll be spending in his Sauerland home region or at the Tegernsee in Bavaria) to begin next Friday, some of his cabinet members will be enjoying time off next week. BILD has the cabinet’s vacation plan.
THE BULLETIN TOO: We’re going on Sommerpause for a few weeks as well (but we’re not spending it in Mallorca, we promise). See you back here in August!
Thanks to James Angelos and Sonya Diehn.
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