ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The postseason essentially begins this Sunday.
The Broncos (13-3) are set to host the Chargers (11-5) in their regular-season finale, and the stakes could not be higher.
“Our focus is, this is a playoff game,” Head Coach Sean Payton said Wednesday.
With a win, the Broncos would match their highest win total in franchise history and secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With the top spot in the conference, the Broncos would earn a first-round bye and clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
The importance of a win cannot be understated, and it’s the next step for the Broncos as they chase championship goals.
“We didn’t come this far just to come this far,” cornerback Pat Surtain II said Wednesday.
And while Chargers starting quarterback Justin Herbert — and potentially several other starters — will not play in Sunday’s Week 18 matchup, Denver’s focus has not waned.
“I think these guys are smart enough to understand the importance of the game,” Payton said Friday.
These are the questions that will help determine if Denver can earn a clinching win:
WILL DENVER WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE?
The Broncos’ focus on winning the turnover battle is nothing new, but there’s a heightened importance as the postseason nears.
“The one area that has to improve is the turnover margin, and that can happen,” Payton said Monday.
Payton pointed to a study of Super Bowl winners’ playoff turnover differential, as he noted just one Super Bowl winner in the last 25 years has posted a negative differential.
Ten of the last 15 Super Bowl winners were first or second in turnover differential among the playoff teams, and eight of those 15 teams were at least plus-4 during their Super Bowl runs. As recently as a year ago, the Eagles were plus-12 in their march to a title.
Denver enters Sunday’s game tied for 25th in the NFL in turnover margin and will look to rebound after losing the turnover battle in each of the last two weeks. The two games ended a streak from Weeks 11-15 in which Denver did not lose the takeaway battle.
“I think playing defense in general, you have to be in good position,” Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph said. “You have to win the critical downs. That starts with stopping the run, winning third downs and red zone. I think we’re doing that. The turnovers haven’t come. We have to coach that better obviously and strain more to create more turnovers. I want more, we need more turnovers, but we have to focus on playing the right way. That’s the first way. Obviously if you’re in a good position, and you’re playing fast and attacking [quarterbacks’] elbows [as] pass rushers, you can create more turnovers. I think we will create more turnovers.”
Joseph did also stress the importance of not chasing turnovers and noted that the Broncos — who are second in third-down and red-zone defense — have created stops in other fashions.
In the regular-season finale, though, taking the ball away could be critical.