The track was wet at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday evening, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers apparently had a “mudder” in their racing stable while the visiting Carolina Panthers did not. The Buccaneers’ 140 to 19 edge in rushing yards in a game played largely in a driving rainstorm was the difference in a 16-14 decision for the home team that kept Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes alive for at least one more day.
The win allowed the Buccaneers to forge a tie with the Panthers at the top of the NFC South with identical 8-9 records, and if a tiebreaker is eventually applied between those two teams it would go in Tampa Bay’s favor. However, if the Atlanta Falcons win on Sunday it would become a three-way tie atop the division and the first tiebreaker in that scenario would go in Carolina’s direction. Thus, the Buccaneers need a win by the New Orleans Saints in Atlanta on Sunday to clinch a record fifth consecutive NFC South crown.
“That’s all we can do,” said Head Coach Todd Bowles. “We can’t wait ’til tomorrow if we don’t win today. It was a gutsy performance, the guys fought hard, it was a hard-fought game on both sides. We came out with one and we gave ourselves a chance – that’s all we can ask for.”
Tampa Bay scored a touchdown on its opening drive for the third week in a row but this time was able to make it stand up with the addition of three Chase McLaughlin field goals. The Buccaneers had a nine-point lead and the football at Carolina’s 20-yard line with five minutes left in regulation but a blocked field goal and a stunning 40-yard completion by Bryce Young to Tetairoa McMillan on fourth-and-eight allowed the Panthers to make it a game on Jalen Coker’s eight-yard touchdown catch. After that, the Buccaneers needed to kill the final 2:27 and the Panthers’ three timeouts to seal the win. A rollout 20-yard pass from Baker Mayfield to TE Cade Otton on third-and-four from the Bucs’ 35 at the two-minute warning was the key to depriving Carolina of one more reasonable scoring chance.
“In that situation, if it’s wide-open throw it,” said Mayfield. “If not, try to run for it or take a short sack to keep the clock rolling. Cade did a good job getting over there quick for me to get it to him and he took care of the rest.”
Otton was one of the Buccaneers’ offensive stars of the night, catching a team-leading seven passes for a season-high 94 yards and Tampa Bay’s only touchdown. That score was an 18-yard seam pass that capped Tampa Bay’s first drive of the game as Tampa Bay broke out to a 10-point lead and never trailed in the game.
“Cade is our reliable guy – doesn’t get a lot of credit, does a ton of the dirty work, and today was one of those days he got a lot of targets and took advantage of them,” said Mayfield. “Him staying alive in scramble drills, obviously the touchdown was a great play by him, being able to hold onto the ball through contact. Cade just does everything the right way. We’re lucky to have him.”
Carolina did trim that lead to three points in the second quarter on a 19-yard drive set up by the Buccaneers’ only turnover of the evening, an interception by LB Christian Rozeboom off Baker Mayfield in Buccaneers territory. Young capped the three-play drive with an eight-yard scoring toss to TE Tommy Tremble as part of a 266-yard passing day. The Bucs did tack on one more field goal just before halftime following an interception by rookie CB Jacob Parrish.
“Obviously, the turnover happened,” said Bowles of Rozeboom’s pick. “Pouring down rain, situationally you don’t want to throw that pass in that situation in a [torrential] downpour and we had a 10-0 lead. You’re playing field-position ball right there. So we held strong and we played the next play and we got past it and we came up with some turnovers ourselves.”
Mayfield completed 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 97.3 passer rating and also ran four times for 31 yards and several key first downs. He was supported by a rushing attack that got consistent push and set up RB Bucky Irving for 85 yards on 26 carries.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s defensive front, which welcomed back DL Calijah Kancey after a 14-game absence, controlled the line of scrimmage throughout the evening and held the Panthers to 19 yards on 14 carries, with a long run of five yards. Standout RB Rico Dowdle gained just 10 yards on seven totes.
“We did a very good job of controlling the line of scrimmage,” said Bowles. “[S Antoine] Winfield had a lot to do with that, coming off the edge, pushing the ball one way. But those guys really did a good job of playing gap-control. It was the first time a long time that we just played the way we were supposed to up front without giving up a big play in the run game.
“Kancey’s a big part of that. When he came back to practice this week, everything picked up. … Him coming back, from an energy standpoint, really took the practice to another level and it carried over in the game.”
Parrish’s second-quarter pick was the Buccaneers’ first defensive takeaway since Parrish’s fumble recovery against Atlanta in Week 15, and it halted a streak of six straight turnovers that had gone in the opposition’s favor. The Bucs ended up winning the turnover battle, 3-1, and are 6-2 this season when they are on the right side of that ledger. In addition, Tampa Bay finished the regular season with a 6-3 record in games decided by three points or less, playing more such contests in 2025 than in any other season in franchise history.
Carolina had a chance to trim Tampa Bay’s lead to two points earlier in the fourth quarter but the drive ended on a Dowdle fumble that was recovered by LB Lavonte David at the Buccaneers’ 24-yard line with 11 minutes left. The Buccaneers’ offense then mounted a long drive that drained six key minutes off the clock, though it ended in CB Chau Wade-Smith’s block of McLaughlin’s 38-yard field goal attempt.
“It goes back to [that drive], taking seven minutes off the clock,” said Mayfield. “Obviously, we didn’t end up with points, but that’s a back-breaker. And so credit to the offensive line – in conditions like that when we knew we were running it, for them to still be able to control the line of scrimmage, and that’s a good [Carolina] front. We leaned on those guys and they took care of us.”
The fumble recovery was the 21st of David’s career, which leads all active NFL players and only adds to his incredible resume. He led the team with six tackles, in the process tying Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks for the franchise’s all-time lead in that category (utilizing totals compiled by Statspass), at 1,714 each. The Buccaneers’ defense did not produce any sacks but did hold Carolina to one conversion in eight third-down attempts and a total of 285 yards on the day.
David and Brooks could end up in that tie through all franchise history if the former chooses to retire after his 14th season. Whether or not that season is over remains to be seen, and the Bucs are powerless to do anything but watch on Sunday and hope for a winning effort by the Saints.
“That part’s disappointing, but we’re here,” said Mayfield. “You can’t go back and change anything. That was the focus this week: Control today and see where the chips fall. So we did that – team win, and we’ll all be pulling for New Orleans tomorrow.”
The Bucs got the ball first after Carolina won the coin toss and elected to defer. Sean Tucker fielded a bouncing kickoff cleanly but was stopped at the Bucs’ 26-yard line. Irving got the ball on the first play going left and then cut it back up the middle for a gain of nine. Another Irving run was good for three and first downs, and then Mike Evans ran and out to the right and slid to the ground to make a 13-yard catch. Two more Irving runs made it third-and-two at the Carolina 41, and he got the ball on third-down, too, lowering his shoulder to power through contact for four more. Mayfield’s second dropback didn’t result in a pass but rather a scramble in which the quarterback didn’t slide, instead absorbing hard contact at the end of a nine-yard gain. A quick pass to Otton in the left flat made it first down at the 18, and Mayfield went right back to his tight end on the last play of the drive. Otton ran vertical route out of the left slot and Mayfield zipped him a perfect pass caught right as he reached the goal line.