Analysis: Why a US operation in Colombia would look very different to Venezuela raid

By Dominique van Heerden, senior foreign producer 

When Donald Trump said on Air Force One that Colombia could be in US sights, his exact quote provides some context: “Colombia is very sick too, run by a sick man, who likes selling cocaine to the United States, and he is not going to be doing it very long…”

Let’s break that down. Yes, he could mean military intervention, but he is more likely referring to the fact that Colombia is holding elections this year, and the president he refers to as a “sick man”, Gustavo Petro, is unlikely to win.   

Presidential elections are scheduled for 31 May, and analysts and political insiders in Colombia expect Petro will be voted out, and a more right-wing candidate – aligned with the Trump administration – will be voted in. 

There are also big differences in the relationship between the US military and the Colombian military, versus the relationship between the US military and the Venezuelan military, making any intervention very different.  

The American military has a well-established and strong working relationship with the Colombian military; this is a partnership that has been strengthened in recent years despite political differences between the current administrations. 

The US military has a near-zero working relationship with the Venezuelan military, especially in recent years. 

The Colombian military goes to great lengths to try and stop cocaine production in the country, facing an uphill battle, while the Venezuelan military was accused of playing a significant role in the transportation of cocaine through Venezuela, and showed no willingness to tackle the problem. 

Colombia’s excessive cocaine production is well-documented, and Venezuela is a well-documented transport hub, as is Ecuador, another neighbour of Colombia’s.

The Ecuadorian government is working with the United States politically and militarily to tackle the problem.   

And although the current Colombian government and the Trump administration, at least overtly, have grave disagreements about the US approach to drugs interdictions, the fact is that the Colombian military works closely with their counterparts in the United States, and that alone would change the dynamics for any kind of military intervention by the US. 

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