The dramatic capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by US forces has sent shockwaves through European capitals. Beyond Latin America, the operation carries far-reaching implications for European security, the future of Greenland and the Arctic and the stability of the Taiwan Strait. As European policymakers absorb images of the midnight raid on Maduro’s compound in Caracas, they must also grapple with a deeper concern: the re-emergence of a highly interventionist and unpredictable US foreign policy, increasingly comfortable with the use of force and with great-power spheres of influence.

In his triumphant post-operation remarks, President Donald Trump openly invoked what he termed a “Donroe Doctrine”—a vision of US hemispheric dominance backed by military power. For Europe, this moment marks not only a rupture in norms surrounding sovereignty, but also a warning sign of how America may behave across multiple theatres.

Implications for Greenland and Arctic security

Europe’s most immediate concern lies in the Arctic. Trump’s self-congratulatory tone and his readiness to deploy military force in pursuit of domestic political goals and narrowly defined economic interests will heighten fears of a renewed US push in the high north—with Greenland at its centre.

European governments, led by Denmark, now face growing pressure to prepare for a more assertive American posture in the Arctic. Greenland’s strategic geography, mineral wealth and emerging shipping routes have long attracted US interest. A more militarised American approach, in the absence of any diplomatic pushback, and justified by the need to counter Russia and China, could translate into an expanded American security footprint on the island.

Europeans’ dilemma

Europeans face a choice: accommodate or resist Washington’s ambitions. Either path carries costs. Accommodating may preserve short-term transatlantic harmony, but it would reward coercion and signal that pressure works on Europe. Resisting would be politically costly and strategically demanding. It would also require internal cohesion. But failing to do so would invite further encroachment and disunity inside Europe. The question is not whether Europe can avoid friction with the US, but whether it is willing to defend its own interests when the challenge comes from its most powerful ally.

Repercussions for the war in Ukraine

Maduro’s capture also resonates uncomfortably in the context of the war in Ukraine. While the Trump administration has framed the operation as a law enforcement action linked to narco-terrorism charges, its willingness to violate another state’s sovereignty reinforces fears that Washington is increasingly open to reordering the international system along great-power lines.

Beijing may interpret Washington’s actions as evidence of a more permissive global environment for coercive tactics

Europeans’ dilemma

For European observers, this raises questions about the kind of peace deal Trump might seek to broker in Ukraine—and whether it could come at Kyiv’s expense. A US pivot towards military interventionism in Latin America may also divert political attention and resources away from European security, while emboldening Moscow to pursue transactional arrangements with Washington over Ukrainian territory and resources.

Signals for Taiwan and Indo-Pacific security

The Maduro operation may also serve as a bellwether for how far the US is willing to go—or not go—in defence of Taiwan. While China is unlikely to replicate a similar military operation, Beijing may interpret Washington’s actions as evidence of a more permissive global environment for coercive tactics. The normalisation of unilateral force could lower inhibitions around economic pressure, grey-zone operations or military intimidation in the Taiwan Strait, further destabilising an already-fragile security balance.

Europeans’ dilemma

For Europeans, this complicates assumptions about deterrence and escalation in the Indo-Pacific. Europeans cannot alone deter a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan—but they can build economic resilience and defence capabilities to shield themselves from such a scenario. They can also bolster their own defence and manufacturing capabilities to de-risk from China-US tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

Europe in a more volatile world

Maduro’s capture is no regional anomaly; it is a signal event. It highlights the volatility of Trump’s foreign policy, his comfort with military solutions and his apparent openness to a world governed by spheres of influence rather than rules.

For Europe, the implications are sobering. From Greenland to Ukraine to Taiwan, European leaders must prepare for a strategic environment in which US actions are less predictable, more unilateral and increasingly shaped by domestic politics. This moment underscores the urgency of greater European coordination, strategic autonomy and crisis preparedness—not only to manage adversaries, but also to navigate the risks posed by an increasingly erratic ally.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.