Scottish Labour strategists say their focus will be Scotland’s 73 constituencies, seeking to turn each one into a similar kind of by-election contest.
Votes on the regional list “top-up” the number of MSPs for each party. So if Labour wins enough constituencies from the SNP, Reform’s support on the regional list will begin to “cannibalise” the nationalists’ vote.
That’s the theory, anyway.
In fact, one senior figure told me that if Labour does manage to turn things around and win in May, it could end up being a few thousand, or even a few hundred, ballots in a handful of key constituencies that decide who is first minister.
Victory in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse was about having organised, motivated activists, and big resources.
When it comes to organisation, senior Scottish Labour figures claim that in Kate Watson, the party general secretary who was Sarwar’s chief of staff, they have someone who knows everything worth knowing about the “ground game” of elections.
In terms of motivation, Scottish party insiders describe a party that has been rebuilt from rock bottom since Sarwar took over in 2021 with the sole purpose of fighting the coming election.
One person compared the party to a start-up company, with staff, candidates and message all crafted around the goal of putting Sarwar into Bute House.
And party figures argue that now, more than ever, the tag of “branch office” which has long been attached to Scottish Labour is no longer true.
In elections gone by, their Glasgow HQ would have to call on staff, expertise and resources from London. They say that capability is now independent and in-house.