The report by Irontortoise on the current upheaval in Iran was a reminder that the entire world does not turn around the Orange Idiot in the Oval Office.

The BBC has this on it, and the Guardian here. It is of course too soon to know how this plays out, but I do have some things to speculate on about it. I don’t pretend to be an expert, so take these idle thoughts with a grain or two of salt.

Regarding Ukraine: Iran supplied Russia with drones that brought a new dimension of atrocity to the conflict. It’s unclear how much the uprising in Iran will affect the country’s ability to supply aid to Russia, but given that Russia has taken to building its own copies, it’s not likely to reduce the drone threat to Ukraine would be my guess. 

Countries and groups that had been relying on military aid and arms from Iran will likely see some disruption.

Regarding oil: As if the Venezuela fiasco wasn’t creating enough uncertainty, the possibility of Iranian oil becoming available if sanctions are lifted adds more — but it won’t be soon. 

It remains to be seen what this will mean for the hazards of shipping oil through the Persian Gulf — not that the hazards coming from Houthis will go away any time soon. There’s also the question of what Iranian military units will do if Tehran loses its grip on the country.

What shape Iranian oil infrastructure is in is another concern, given the years of sanctions on the country. What they have is, if I recall correctly, of much higher quality than Venezuelan reserves, so oil companies might be more interested in investing there.

Regarding Iran’s neighborhood: I suspect the Saudis would be pleased to see the Iranian variant of Islam no longer with the power to challenge their theocratic dominance — or dominance of oil markets.

Israel must be overjoyed at the prospect of regime change in Iran — though it means Netanyahu may lose one of the threats he uses to justify staying in power. As for Hamas, ISIS, et. al. they’ve got to be scrambling to figure what comes next.

Remember the Kurds? Caught between Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran, a new government in Tehran might give them a little more breathing room — or not. 

As for Iraq and Syria, they too are probably not unhappy with the possibility that Iran will be less of a disruptive force in the region — or so I’d guess. We’ll see. There’s never been a shortage of reasons for conflict in the region.

Regarding the Trump Regime: Trump is already bragging that his threats of retaliation to protect protesters are helping bring down the Iranian government — not to mention his constant threats against the country, strikes on nuclear facilities, and who knows what else. It is doubtful Trump has any real grasp of the situation — and who knows what the lunatics around him are thinking?

Nothing coming from Washington is likely to improve matters. But one thing is sure: if the government collapses in Tehran, Trump will claim it as a personal victory and demand the Nobel peace prize yet again.

Things are not made any better, knowing that anyone who might have real insight to offer has either been purged from the government, has left on their own, or will be ignored by the looters now running things. 

Who is going to speak up when the only thing that matters is whether it’s what Trump wants to hear? Will Trump decide Iran falls in Putin’s sphere of power, since he’s grabbed Venezuela?

Regarding the Pahlavi dynasty: If I read Irontortoise correctly, it looks like the uprising is centering around the son of the late Shah of Iran. I admit to knowing almost nothing about him.

That being said, there are some questions I think might be worth asking. How deep is his support in the country — and outside it? Is he being backed by other governments in any way? How much wealth and other assets does he control? Who does he consider his allies?

How will his aims and those of those in the streets work out in a world where Trump has overthrown the old world order and the only thing that matters is force?

Regarding Climate Change: It would be easy to overlook the very real threats facing Iran on top of the political upheaval. It’s one of the regions of the world where climate change is starting to really hit hard.

Iran is one of the places that may see heat reach levels that humans cannot survive. An unconfirmed report supposedly set a record for a heat index reading in 2024.

Agriculture is also threatened. A combination of poor soil and water management along with drought is causing a decline in food production.

Decades of water mismanagement mean that Tehran faces the prospect of abandonment because there is no water available.

No matter who ends up running the country, climate change is something that cannot be denied or ignored — and Iran is not the only country that’s going to erupt in turmoil because of it. 

It would be nice if there was still an international order based on rules, mutual respect, cooperation, competent leadership, and science-based policies, but it is what it is.

Stay tuned.