Parker’s prediction: Expect another big game from Texans wideout Christian Kirk.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com

Jan 18, 2026 • 11:49 ET

• 4 min read

Photo By – Reuters Connect. Promo image for Texans vs. Patriots, including C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye.

The Houston Texans arrive at Gillette Stadium with an elite defense to take on the surging New England Patriots in tonight’s Divisional Round matchup.

My Texans vs. Patriots predictions and top NFL picks expect Houston wideout Christian Kirk to have another solid day through the air despite coming up short in New England.

Texans vs Patriots prediction

Texans vs Patriots Best bet: Christian Kirk Over 38.5 receiving yards (-111)

The door remains open for Houston Texans slot receiver Christian Kirk to see another uptick in targets with No. 1 wideout Nico Collins in concussion protocol and unlikely to play. 

Kirk went good to the tune of eight catches for 144 yards on nine targets last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New England Patriots finished 25th in pass defense DVOA during the regular season. 

Kirk will also have a size advantage against Pats slot corner Marcus Jones, and Jones surrendered a 75% catch rate and 113.9 NFL passer rating this season. 

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account Add as a preferred source on GoogleTexans vs Patriots same-game parlay

New England has paced the NFL in offensive DVOA dating back to Week 14 of the regular season, and I’m confident quarterback Drake Maye’s mobility can offset the Houston pass rush.

Maye has rushed for 41 or more yards in three of the past five games, and the Texans allowed the second-highest yards per rush to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season (6.42).

Turning to Pats running back Rhamondre Stevenson, he ranks seventh in PFF pass block grade, so I’m anticipating him being leaned on for added snaps and looks in the passing attack as another means of mitigating the Houston pressuring Maye.

Plus, Stevenson has topped this total in each of the past six games while averaging 41 receiving yards per game.

Texans vs Patriots SGP

Patriots -3
Drake Maye Over 35.5 rushing yards
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 20.5 receiving yards

Our big-ticket SGP: Stevenson finds paydirt

Stevenson has found the end zone in three of the past four games with six total touchdowns.

Texans vs Patriots SGP

Patriots -3
Drake Maye Over 35.5 rushing yards
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 20.5 receiving yards
Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown

Texans vs Patriots game predictions
Texans vs Patriots moneyline prediction

In addition to the highlighted surge from the New England offense, the Pats have also ranked seventh in defensive DVOA during the same stretch and won 15 of their last 17 games for +16.55 units and a 31% ROI. I also expect Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offense to struggle without Collins.

Texans vs Patriots spread prediction

The Patriots aren’t just winning, either; they’re covering the number with an active 12-3 run for +8.70 units and a 53% ROI, and the Texans are travelling on a short week for their third road game in three weeks and second consecutive. Maye is also coming off a dominant second half in the Wild Card Round with the highest completion percentage and success rate of all 12 QBs in action.

Texans vs Patriots Over/Under prediction

This total is a little too high given the strength of these two defenses and the likelihood of both teams looking to establish the run and limit offensive mistakes. Of course, these two teams combined to allow just nine points in the Wild Card Round.

Texans vs Patriots odds

Spread: Houston +3 (-104) | New England -3 (-118)
Moneyline: Houston +150 | New England -178
Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-115) | Under 40.5 (-105)

More NFL picks and odds from Covers

Texans vs Patriots trend to know

The Patriots have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games for +8.70 units and a 53% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Patriots.

How to watch Texans vs Patriots

Location
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

Date
Sunday, January 18, 2026

Kickoff
3:00 p.m. ET

TV
ESPN

Texans vs Patriots latest injuries

Texans vs Patriots weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic