U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the White House on Tuesday.Mark Schiefelbein/The Associated Press
The United States aims to seize Greenland from its ally, Denmark. The President of the United States amplifies a social-media message stating that his country’s real enemy is NATO – a linchpin of U.S. national security for eight decades – rather than Russia or China. NATO nations are sending troops to Greenland as a deterrent to aggression, not by Russia, but by the United States.
It is a time of unthinkable things, that move from impossibility to improbability to reality with disorienting and alarming speed. In that light, revelations by The Globe and Mail that the Canadian Armed Forces are modelling a scenario of a U.S. invasion of this country, and Canada’s possible response, seem not fanciful so much as the military coming to grips with the reality of our historic ally and friend rapidly becoming neither.
That modelling, high level as it is, would have been unthinkable a year ago. Mr. Trump’s year-long campaign against the allies of the United States has made that exercise not unthinkable, but a matter of duty. Understanding this country’s vulnerabilities is the first step in reducing them.
Will the United States invade Canada? The question might seem so ludicrous as to not merit an answer. As ludicrous, say, as the question of whether the United States is willing to destroy the Western alliance by snatching the sovereign territory of Denmark.
Carney stands behind Greenland, criticizes Trump without naming him in blunt Davos speech
It’s true that Greenland’s territory is vital to the defence of the United States – against the Soviet Union and now, Russia. That is part of why Denmark, with Greenland, was one of the 12 original signatories to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on April 4, 1949. It is equally true that, within the NATO framework, the United States has all the access it might want to Greenland to project its military power.
That has not dissuaded Donald Trump, who is unswayed by such facts and now threatens escalating tariffs against NATO members until Denmark hands over Greenland. Whether he wants Greenland in order to shatter NATO, or is merely willing to see it shattered, does not matter. What does matter is his annexationist logic – the United States must own the territory it defends. It cannot count on allies.
The implications for Canada and Arctic defence are as obvious as they are worrying. If Mr. Trump is successful in his illegitimate quest to annex Greenland, this country would rightly worry about his next move.
The European Union, which has tried to placate Mr. Trump this past year, has been forced into a painful reconsideration, a jolt much like that delivered to Canada in early 2025. Mr. Trump’s campaign to use economic coercion to turn Canada into the 51st state was a shock to this country, accustomed to a relationship with the United States beyond that of even a mere ally.
“Canada was amongst the first to hear the wake-up call, leading us to fundamentally shift our strategic posture,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a speech Tuesday at the World Economic Forum at Davos. He did not name Mr. Trump; he did not need to.
Mr. Carney’s speech was a precision munition, a salvo aimed at pushing Canada’s European allies, especially, from muttered and muted complaints into joint action. “When we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness,” he said. “We accept what is offered. This is not sovereignty. It is the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination.”
The Prime Minister offered a clear-eyed view of the world as it is today, rather than a nostalgia-tinged invocation of the mantra of the “rules-based international order.” If power is to be the only law, then Canada must amplify its power by banding together with other like-minded countries.
Earlier in his speech, he said that Canada stands “firmly with Greenland and Denmark and fully support their unique right to determine Greenland’s future.” Canada’s commitment to NATO’s Article 5, which states an attack on one member is an attack on all, is “unwavering,” he said.
The federal government has yet to announce whether it will join with our European allies in sending troops to Greenland. Canada should do so. It would not be provocation to take that step. To the contrary, it would be a measured response to provocation by Mr. Trump and support for NATO’s core principle of collective security.
As has been the case for decades, Greenland is the first line of defence.