New projections for Canada have revealed that over the next 25 years, Alberta is likely to overtake British Columbia in population size.

Statistics Canada says population projections for Canada, provinces and territories are periodically updated to reflect recent developments in Canadian demographics, including changes in immigration targets and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The most recent demographic projections have as their base population the 2025 population estimates and cover the 2025 to 2050 period at the provincial and territorial scale and the 2025 to 2075 period at the national level.

The federal agency says that over the next 25 years, the population of Alberta is projected to surpass the population of British Columbia in almost all scenarios.

Laine Mitchell/Daily Hive

Statistics Canada used a total of ten projection scenarios, with six medium growth scenarios, a low-growth and a high-growth scenario, and a fast-aging and a slow-aging scenario. Alberta led British Columbia in all but one of those projection scenarios.

In the low-growth scenario, Alberta is projected to have a population of 6.458 million by 2050, while British Columbia will sit at 5.822 million. In the high-growth scenario, Alberta is projected to have a population of 8.132 million by 2050, while British Columbia will sit at 7.533 million.

When looking at a fast aging scenario, Statistics Canada outlined that Alberta is projected to have a population of 6.634 million by 2050, while British Columbia will sit at 6.025 million. In the slow-aging scenario, Alberta is projected to have a population of 7.909 million by 2050, while British Columbia will sit at 7.265 million.

According to the various projection scenarios, the Canadian population, estimated at 41.7 million on July 1, 2025, would continue to increase over the next decades to reach between 44.0 million (low-growth scenario) and 75.8 million (high-growth scenario) by 2075. According to the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would reach 57.4 million in 2075.

In all projection scenarios, Ontario and Quebec would continue to be the most populous provinces in Canada over the next 25 years.

The population in Alberta has been booming in recent years, especially in major urban centres. One metro in the province saw a 19 per cent increase in its population over the past five years, while one city just outside of Edmonton is seeing a big spike in its population as of late.

You can view the full population projections online.