Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a campaign stop at South Okanagan Concrete Products, in Osoyoos, B.C., in April.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Pierre Poilievre is about to ask for something no Conservative leader has been granted by the party for more than 20 years: a second chance.
On Friday night, thousands of party members will vote on whether he should stay on as leader after losing the April election.
The party’s constitution mandates a leadership review when it fails to win a federal vote. Mr. Poilievre is expected to win far more than the simple majority of votes that the constitution also requires for him to remain.
But what party loyalists are watching for is how he makes the case that he deserves to stay. And both they and his political rivals are wondering what this convention will say about where Mr. Poilievre takes the party next.
The past two party leaders, Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, also lost to the Liberals, then led by Justin Trudeau. Both were forced out of the job before they could face the party membership.
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Stephen Harper stepped down as leader after he lost to the Trudeau Liberals in 2015. But after he failed to win the 2004 election, Mr. Harper did face the membership. Eighty-four per cent of members said he should stay.
But the context of Mr. Poilievre’s leadership review is different. His party had a double-digit lead over the Liberals in the months before the 2025 election. But when the ballot-box question shifted from Mr. Trudeau’s record and affordability issues to who was best to lead Canada through the tariff war started by U.S. President Donald Trump, Mr. Poilievre stumbled.
Though the Conservatives made major gains including taking away seats from the New Democrats and the Liberals, Mr. Poilievre lost his own seat. He was later elected in a by-election in a safe Alberta seat, Battle River-Crowfoot, after the sitting MP resigned.
In the days leading up to the leadership review, some close to Mr. Poilievre are quietly saying that he could get as much as 90 per cent of the vote, but others think the number will be lower.
Regan Watts, a senior aide to former Conservative finance minister Jim Flaherty, said he expects Mr. Poilievre to win at least 80 per cent if not more.
“That’s probably the minimum number he can earn and keep his critics relatively quiet in the near term,” he said in an interview.
“Anything less, there are chinks in the armour.”
There’s been a concerted effort by people including campaign strategist Hamish Marshall and MP Arpan Khanna to ensure that the vast majority of delegates attending the Calgary event are on Mr. Poilievre’s side.
Each riding can send up to 10 elected delegates, plus the riding president and candidate of record. Upward of 2,500 delegates are expected.
The party last held a convention in 2023, the year after Mr. Poilievre became leader.
Pierre Poilievre campaigns for support ahead of his leadership review
That leadership race saw him markedly expand the party’s base; he sold more than 600,000 memberships.
Signs of how Mr. Poilievre has changed the party will be evident in Calgary.
For the first time, the party is accrediting people who work as “content creators” – online personalities whose video and still images discussing politics reach a vastly different audience than traditional media outlets.
Mr. Poilievre has used those channels extensively to reach new votes. During the election, some creators had far better access to Mr. Poilievre than the press.
At the convention, they will not have free rein. They and the media will face similar restrictions, including a bar on covering the early stages of some of the party’s debates on new policies or constitutional changes, as is normally the case at conventions.
The policy and constitutional debates can often be a source of tension.
In 2021, a decision by Conservative delegates to vote down a motion that would have added “climate change is real” to their policy handbook stuck to then-leader Mr. O’Toole in the subsequent federal election.
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Liberals are watching the resolutions up for discussion in Calgary closely, highlighting that party members will debate the Conservatives’ abortion policy as well as conversion therapy, the practice of attempting to change someone’s sexual orientation or gender identity.
That those are the issues on the floor won’t help Mr. Poilievre reach more people, said Alex Kohut, who worked on research and advertising for Mr. Trudeau.
“Team Poilievre has clearly made a decision to focus on shoring up his base support and surviving this review in the short term, rather than positioning him to maximize his chances in the next election,” he wrote in a recent analysis.
“It’s a cynical choice that suggests they think Canadians won’t have long-term memories.”
Conservatives are also agitating for more control over internal operations through amendments to the party constitution, and a spirited election for a new party council is expected as well.
Mr. Poilievre and his inner circle will be keeping careful watch over it all, trying to give the delegates breathing room but not allowing them to suck up all the political oxygen – a key part of ensuring that he convincingly wins the leadership review.
“It’s the floor game,” said Ian Brodie, who helped run Mr. Harper’s leadership-review vote in 2005.
“Let everyone have their say in the breakout rooms but ensure only issues with high unanimity go on from there to the convention floor.”
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre and his wife, Anaida Poilievre, wave to supporters on election night.Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images
Ahead of the vote on Friday night is a high-stakes speech from Mr. Poilievre.
The speech will go over his greatest hits as leader: increasing the party’s share of the popular vote, winning seats in never-before-held ridings and changing the national conversation on issues such as the consumer carbon price and responses to the toxic drug crisis.
But he’s also expected to use his remarks to debut a new album: how he intends to win the next general election.
Both elements together will make the case that he deserves to stay when other leaders had to go, said Sebastian Skamski, who led media relations for Mr. Poilievre in the first years of his leadership.
“I think Conservatives are wise and understanding of the fact progress has been made and the steps he is taking to turn that into government the next time around,” he said in an interview.
Conservatives were fundraising already this week off the potential of a spring campaign, though Prime Minister Mark Carney dismissed that possibility when asked by reporters.
“We’ve heard Liberals make these types of empty promises before,” said a fundraising pitch sent Wednesday morning.
“We need to be ready now.”
The Liberals won 169 seats in April to the Conservatives’ 144. But, two Conservatives have since decamped to the governing party, putting the Liberals just one seat shy of a majority, assuming they win Chrystia Freeland’s seat in a by-election. Ms. Freeland resigned her Toronto seat a few weeks ago.
While the Conservatives appear to have retained much of the electoral support in the months since the federal election, recent public-opinion surveys are suggesting that the gap is widening.
Polls taken after Mr. Carney’s trip to China, Qatar and Switzerland earlier this month suggest that he’s received a bump from his international travels, and in particular a landmark speech he made in Davos that drew the ire of the U.S. President.
Mr. Carney remains well ahead of Mr. Poilievre when it comes to who Canadians prefer as prime minister.
Mr. Carney has also won a great deal of praise from provincial conservatives.
Three notable ones won’t be at the Calgary convention – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, Ontario’s Doug Ford, whose party scheduled its own convention for the same weekend, and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.
Mr. Moe told reporters in Ottawa Wednesday that Mr. Poilievre’s review is taking place at a politically charged time, both domestically and around the world.
“And so, I don’t know if the number will be as high as what you know, traditionally, leaders have expected or received,” Mr. Moe said.
“But I think you’ll see a strong mandate for the leadership that Pierre Poilievre has provided.”
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, however, is expected to speak at the convention.
With a report from Ian Bailey