With three losses from their past four matches, the “alarm bells” are starting to ring at Collingwood.

While there’s still three games before finals, Collingwood’s grasp on top spot on the AFL ladder took a big hit over the weekend, following a disappointing 27-point loss to Brisbane.

It marked a tough month for Craig McRae’s troops, who have lost to Gold Coast and Fremantle as well in recent times.

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“It’s cause for concern at Collingwood… I think there are some alarm bells starting to ring,” St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna told Fox Footy’s First Crack.

“They are optimistic and that’s their right, so they should be. That’s the way ‘Fly’ goes about it, they do have recent history on their side.”

According to Montagna, the Pies were in a similar boat during the 2023 season. Between Rounds 20 and 23 that year, McRae’s side dropped games against Carlton, Hawthorn and Brisbane in the space of a month, despite only having lost two matches all season prior to that.

But the Pies stabilised, defeating Essendon in the final round of the home and away season before a thrilling finals series where they pulled the “rabbit out of a hat” and won three finals by a combined margin of 12 points to claim the premiership. Recent history shows they can recover.

So, where is it starting to break down for the Pies this year?

Their efficiency inside forward 50, which has been one of their biggest strengths throughout the season, has fallen off a cliff.

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“For the majority of the season, Collingwood’s in between the arcs game, the midfield stuff, hadn’t been great profile-wise, it had been mid table,” Montagna continued.

“Their ability to win contest and clearance, their ball movement and their ability to defend ball movement.

“But what was elite was their efficiency going inside 50 and we know how stingy they were in D50. They were the hardest team to score against but in the last four weeks, that’s just been a little bit vulnerable.”

Between Opening Round and round 17, the Pies ranked first in the competition for scores per inside 50. Conversely, they were ranked second for scores per inside 50 against. In simple terms, they were clinical at their own end and were tough as nails in defence.

Since round 18 though, the Pies have declined in a big way. During the past month, they’ve ranked 13th in both scores per inside 50 for and against. They’ve lost one of their biggest strengths.

But the alarm bells don’t just stop there. Their offensive potency has dropped off as well.

Between Opening Round and round 17, the Pies ranked second in the competition for intercept to score and ranked fifth for clearance to score.

From Round 18 onwards, they rank just 11th in the competition in both those metrics respectively.

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INDIVIDUALS ON NOTICE?

The caveat to this discussion is that the majority of these players were shooting the lights out in the early part of the season, so a decline in form isn’t perhaps the end of the world, but it’s an interesting discussion nonetheless.

“To be fair… these guys are coming from a pretty high bar, but they’ve just dropped away,” Montagna said.

Between Opening Round and round 17, Jamie Elliott scored a 12.2 rating via Champion Data’s player rating system. Since then, he’s gone at a rating of 3.5 — a stark drop-off.

Veteran Steele Sidebottom has also declined, dipping from 12.7 to 9.

Collingwood’s midfield mix has been a hot topic of discussion as well in recent weeks, thanks in part to the form drop of Ned Long. The ex-Hawk’s rating has slipped from 10.7 to 7.1. Tom Mitchell is on the periphery, while the likes of Sidebottom, Jack Crisp, Josh Daicos and Jordan De Goey have also been used through the engine room in spurts.

Crisp’s rating has dropped from 13.7 to 10.7 while Dan McStay has gone from 8 to 5.6. The Pies’ defence also looks vulnerable at the moment and they desperately need veteran Jeremy Howe to return, while key defender Billy Frampton is also likely in the mix for a recall after a second game at VFL level on his return from injury.

Montagna thinks De Goey’s return from a lengthy absence is a “huge inclusion” as McRae’s side try to right the ship with just three home and away matches remaining.

BALL MOVEMENT

Have the Pies lost their attacking flair?

Despite Brisbane holding a solid lead during the fourth term, Collingwood was unable to generate any ball movement that really threatened to arrest momentum.

“There are some wobbly facets with Collingwood’s game at the moment,” Montagna said.

“We’ve spoken a lot about how predictable they are coming out of defensive 50 and this has been the way they’ve played a lot of the year.

“It’s long down the line, they point and set their defence… In the last quarter, five or six times in a row they tried to clear their defensive 50 with the long down the line and it just came straight back at them.”

Montagna highlighted vision in that fourth term where Collingwood continued with the same form of ball movement, but queried why they didn’t try something different in an attempt to score.

“A couple of years ago, they were throwing this ball into the corridor. They were playing chaos footy. They would take the risk… that wasn’t the case with this game,” Montagna pointed out.

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“I just wonder whether they don’t have that chaos and flair in their game when they need to now.”

In recent times, the Pies have felt almost invincible in games, a win felt inevitable. They’ve lost that aura.

Perhaps the most concerning statistic right now for the Pies however, is their ability to transition from defensive 50 to inside 50.

The last 10 premiers have all been in the top six for that statistic. Right now, Collingwood are ranked 11th.

Against the Lions, the Pies were able to transition the ball from end to end only three times out of 34. It was their third-worst effort in that stat during Craig McRae’s tenure.

“There’s still a couple of weeks to fix it and they do have time, but I just think there are some alarm bells,” Montagna said.

But what’s the worst case scenario here?

Despite looking like the clear number one seed for the majority of the season, the Pies are remarkably at risk of missing the top four.

That’s according to foxfooty.com.au’s Max Laughton’s Run Home. Laughton highlighted that if Brisbane, Geelong and the Gold Coast win all of their remaining games (they’ll likely go into each as favourites) and the Pies beat the Hawks and Dees but lose to the Crows, there is a world where they miss the four.

“They could realistically finish fifth. They could have 17 wins and be the unluckiest team to finish outside the top four with 17 wins,” Montagna added.

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NICK DAICOS OR BUST?

Nick Daicos is one of if not the best player in the competition, but are the Pies becoming too reliant on their star man?

Daicos has put together another superb season that has him as the favourite for the Brownlow Medal this year. He’s classy, finds plenty of the footy and loves to hit the scoreboard.

“It’s Nick Daicos or bust at the moment and I’d never thought we’d say that about Collingwood when you look at the names that are there,” North Melbourne champion David King told Fox Footy’s First Crack.

When Nick Daicos has seven or more disposals in a quarter, the Pies win that quarter 77 per cent of the time. When he has four or less, they win that quarter just 30 per cent of the time.

“It’s impossible to tag him, we’re conceding that, but a team tag is something I think you can explore,” King continued.

King highlighted vision from Brisbane’s win over Collingwood, where the entire team was buying into stopping Daicos.

“I loved what Brisbane did, (Josh) Dunkley had an eye on him at all times. There were times he’d slipped the noose and bang, that’s the sort of stuff that Chris Fagan would be absolutely delighted with,” King said.

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If you can stop Daicos, you go a long way to beating the Pies.

“They rely on him so heavily to score,” King continued.

Remarkably, 43 per cent of Collingwood’s scores in the last six weeks have gone through Nick Daicos.

“I can’t remember seeing a player have such an impact. It’s a great thing for Nick, but a bad thing for the group,” King said.

“When it doesn’t work, I think Craig McRae has some concerns.”

King also believes the Pies have “a heavy reliance on their handball corridor game, getting the game going in flow” and is worried that “there’s only a couple of strings to their bow at the moment”.

“I think they need to throw the magnets around,” he said.

One possibility raised was that veteran Scott Pendlebury could return to half back and bring “more creativity, more flair” given his strong ball use without taking ridiculous risks.

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Dan McStay has trained at different stages as a defender as well, while Josh Daicos was used to great effect in the on-ball rotation earlier this month. Ex-Power star Dan Houston is yet to hit his straps in the black and white as well and could benefit from a change of role.

“There’s a lot of levers he can pull,” King said.

While neither King nor Montagna are putting a line through the Pies by any means, Montagna did concede that they’ve probably gone from first or second in premiership favoritism to about fourth.

Whether they can arrest their form slump or not remains to be seen, but Craig McRae certainly has some things to think about ahead of a huge clash with Hawthorn this week which has massive finals ramifications for both sides.