According to folklore, if he sees his shadow there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, spring comes early.
PENNSYLVANIA, USA — After a frigid blast of arctic air and a long-duration winter storm swept across the United States, bringing ice and snow, many are probably ready for an early spring.
But unfortunately, a prognosticating Pennsylvania groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, had other ideas.
Monday morning, at dawn, thousands of people gathered as Phil saw his shadow, indicating six more weeks of winter.
The woodchuck’s weather forecast is an annual ritual that goes back more than a century in western Pennsylvania, with far older roots in European folklore, but it took Bill Murray’s 1993 “Groundhog Day” movie to transform the event into what it is today, with tens of thousands of revelers at the scene and imitators scattered around the U.S. and beyond.
During the annual celebration, crowds gather at Gobbler’s Knob as members of Phil’s “inner circle” summon the groundhog from his tree stump at dawn and wait to see whether he spots his shadow.
According to folklore, if he sees his shadow there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, spring comes early.
The “inner circle” is a group of local dignitaries who are responsible for planning the events, as well as feeding and caring for Phil himself.
The annual event in Punxsutawney, about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, originated from a German legend about a furry rodent.
When is Groundhog Day 2026?
Groundhog Day always falls on Feb. 2. This year, Groundhog Day falls on a Monday.
How many times has Punxsutawney Phil seen his shadow?
Since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil’s track record has leaned heavily toward six more weeks of winter.
In fact, arguably the world’s most famous groundhog has predicted an early spring by not seeing his shadow only 21 times, including in 2024, according to the numbers announced by the Groundhog Day inner circle.
Meanwhile, he has seen his shadow 110 times, including in 2026, though there are nine years where there’s no record of what happened.
Prior to 2024, the last time Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow was in 2020, and before that in 2019, offering a back-to-back dose of his rare early spring prediction.
How often has Punxsutawney Phil been correct?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration compared Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast to the national weather the prior 10 years and found “on average, Phil has gotten it right 30% of the time.” Over the past 20 years, NOAA found Phil was 35% correct but still a lot less accurate than some of his groundhog competitors.
Going back all the way to his first prediction in 1887, his record is right only slightly better (but still worse than a coin flip) 39% of the time, according to an analysis from Stormfax Weather Almanac.
The Associated Press and TEGNA stations have contributed to this report.