U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy and U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow are suddenly engaged in a pitched battle as Cassidy tries to fend off her and other Republican challengers in his race for reelection this year.
On Saturday, a super PAC supporting Cassidy launched a TV ad that slammed “liberal Letlow.”
The ad linked Letlow to two leading Democrats – former President Joe Biden and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – and accused her of voting with Biden more than any of the other four Republican members of Louisiana’s congressional delegation.
On Sunday, Letlow responded by playing her strongest card.
“I am so proud to have earned the endorsement of President Donald Trump, and now I’ll continue fighting alongside him to secure our borders and to continue to grow our economy,” Letlow posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
She also said: “Well, it didn’t take long for Bill Cassidy and his never-Trumper, pro-impeachment allies to begin attacking me.”
The opening salvo by the pro-Cassidy super PAC, Louisiana Freedom Fund, and Letlow’s response took place nearly two weeks before candidates qualify for the race over a three-day period beginning on Feb. 11. The closed Republican primary – which also allows unaffiliated voters to participate – is on May 16.
Three different polls show Cassidy trailing in head-to-head races against Letlow and another Republican challenger, state Treasurer John Fleming.
Besides Letlow and Fleming, three other Republicans have also announced intentions to run in the Senate race: state Sen. Blake Miguez, Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta and St. Tammany Council member Kathy Seiden.
No major Democratic office holder has announced plans to run yet.
Pearson Cross, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana at Monroe, finds it noteworthy that the Louisiana Freedom Fund would launch the attack ad so early.
“This shows the seriousness of the threat that Julia Letlow poses to Bill Cassidy,” Cross said. “The Cassidy campaign and their aligned super PAC realize they have a limited window to introduce and define Letlow before she can introduce herself to Louisiana voters.”
What the polls are saying
The pro-Cassidy super PAC’s attack ad comes as polls begin to surface with alarming numbers for the second-term senator.
While the Cassidy campaign said its own polling is more optimistic, showing him winning the first primary, it does show he has ground to make up in a head-to-head matchup.
The worst news for Cassidy comes from veteran New Orleans pollster Greg Rigamer. He surveyed Republican primary voters for prominent business lobbyist Alton Ashy, who has dozens of federal and state clients and who helped organize a major fund-raiser for Letlow during the just-completed Washington Mardi Gras.
The poll showed Letlow leading the field with 27%, followed by Cassidy with 21%, Fleming with 14% and Miguez with 5%. About 6% favored other candidates, who were not identified, while the rest said they hadn’t decided who to support.
Rigamer’s poll found that only 22% of Republican primary voters believe Cassidy deserves reelection, while 63% favored giving someone else a chance.
Head-to-head in a Republican runoff, Letlow led Cassidy, 57-22%. The question may have skewed the result somewhat in her favor because it identified her as “Trump endorsed Julia Letlow.”
Fleming led Cassidy, 45-28%, the poll found.
If Rigamer’s numbers are correct, this would mean Cassidy has limited chances to grow his support and win because he’s already so well-known among Republican voters in Louisiana.
Rigamer interviewed 600 voters – 85% were Republicans and 15% were unaffiliated voters who can vote in either party primary – Jan. 20-22.
“I did this for clients at the federal level,” said Ashy, who helped organize fundraisers for Gov. Jeff Landry and Letlow during Washington Mardi Gras. “We wanted a good indication of what’s going on in the race. We didn’t ask leading questions. It’s a purely independent view of the situation as it stands today.”
The Cassidy campaign, however, said its polling shows him leading in the primary, and that he would ultimately win the June 27 runoff election.
“We are extremely confident in our results that show Sen. Cassidy with a double-digit lead on the full ballot as well as significant movement to the Senator once voters learn more about how the Senator’s record of delivering conservative accomplishments for Louisiana stands in stark contrast to Julia Letlow’s record,” the Cassidy campaign said Monday.
Cassidy’s poll, taken by Public Opinion Strategies, a veteran Republican firm, showed him with 32% of the Republican primary vote, followed by Letlow with 21%, Fleming 16%, Miguez 9% and Seiden with 1%. The rest were undecided.
But the Cassidy campaign acknowledged that its own poll showed Letlow leading him by six points in a two-person race, 46-40%.
The campaign added, however, that its polling also showed 57% of primary voters “prefer the candidate with the experience to get things done above all measures.” The campaign also said Cassidy led Letlow 69-22% once voters “were informed” of the records of Cassidy and Letlow.
The Cassidy survey was conducted from Jan. 20-22 of 600 likely Republican primary voters.
Meanwhile, a poll taken for Fleming showed him soundly defeating Cassidy in a head-to-head election, 44%-26% — a similar number to Rigamer’s poll. The rest were undecided.
“My record is that I have voted more conservatively than either one of them,” Fleming, who served in the House from 2009-17, said of Cassidy and Letlow. “I’m one of nine founders of the House Freedom Caucus, which was created to anchor conservativism in the Republican House of Representatives.”
The Fleming survey was conducted by Baton Rouge pollster John Couvillon from Jan. 12-14 of likely Republican primary voters. Letlow jumped into the race on Jan. 21, three days after Trump endorsed her.
Seiden lamented the attack on Letlow, saying, “I wish we lived in a world where each person could tell their story and platform, like I chose to do on my website, but that’s not reality.”
Skrmetta and Miguez didn’t immediately respond to messages on Monday.
The bigger picture
On Monday, the Cassidy campaign said it and the Louisiana Freedom Fund raised $1.4 million during the just-completed Washington Mardi Gras, adding to his big fund-raising advantage. Under federal law, Cassidy cannot coordinate his activities with Louisiana Freedom Fund.
The Cassidy campaign noted it is spending $500,000 to launch the first TV ad in the race last week. In it, Cassidy highlights that Trump signed a Cassidy-sponsored law that toughens laws against fentanyl distributors.
Cassidy won reelection in 2020 with Trump’s backing after voting strongly with the president during his first term. But Cassidy voted afterward to convict Trump on an impeachment charge of inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol by his supporters. Trump began bad-mouthing Cassidy, and his poll numbers plummeted.
Cassidy has voted consistently with Trump since he took office again a year ago and rarely misses an opportunity to praise the president.
Polls show Trump remains enormously popular among GOP voters.
Rigamer’s poll found that Trump had a favorable rating of 76% and an 18% unfavorable rating among Republican primary voters. Gov. Jeff Landry had a 74% favorable rating and a 24% unfavorable rating.
Cassidy had a 35%-51% favorable to unfavorable rating, while Letlow’s split was 43-10%.
Fleming had a 44%-10% favorable to unfavorable rating.
Miguez, unknown to most Republican primary voters, had a 15%-6% favorable to unfavorable split in Rigamer’s poll.
If no candidate receives more than 50% in the May 16 Democratic and Republican primaries, the top two finishers will face off in a head-to-head runoff on June 27. The runoff winners will advance to the November general election.