The latest prediction models have seen Arsenal’s title chances drop but not as much as Manchester City would have hoped
16:00, 13 Feb 2026Updated 16:13, 13 Feb 2026
The Arsenal draw with Brentford hit the Gunners’ chances of winning the title but not by much(Image: Glyn KIRK / AFP via Getty Images)
Arsenal’s draw against Brentford was no doubt a frustrating one, and one of the first times this season where this team were almost certainly outplayed and arguably deserved to be beaten. The Bees missed a spate of big chances in the final ten minutes, and Gabriel Magalhaes was lucky to avoid a second booking.
It has been a tough week for Arsenal despite earning four points from six against a Sunderland side who held the Gunners to a draw at the Stadium of Light and holding Brentford to a draw in a ground that has seen just two defeats for the home team all season.
The issue has been their rivals Manchester City picking up maximum points away to Liverpool and at home to Fulham to see the gap close to just four points. It looked like Liverpool might do the Gunners a favour but a mad end to the game gave Pep Guardiola a huge boost.
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It was noted, however, that City’s chances, according to Opta, only improved by around 3.6% from before the game to then winning it by full-time. This week has seen that number grow again but despite the win and the Gunners’ failure to secure maximum points, the odds remain heavily in the Gunners’ favour.
City’s chances have improved this week from 8.15% to 12.07%, again another rise of less than 4%. The Gunners’ odds of winning the league dropped from 90.14% to 85.81%. Emotionally, it is certainly frustrating to have drawn, but this was not entirely surprising and the models would have taken this into account when considering the likelihood of a title victory, hence why the percentages have shifted only a small amount.
This was, on paper, Arsenal’s second toughest remaining fixture behind the trip to Manchester City itself. The Gunners now have two more league away games back-to-back, to Wolves and then Tottenham Hotspur.
Two teams in the bottom five, but win those and the number of home games will outnumber the remaining trips to Brighton, Manchester City, West Ham and Crystal Palace. The gap might seem smaller but there remains plenty of twists and turns in this title race to come for both sides.
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