The 2026 Winter Olympics have already been a strong ratings draw for NBC, but a United States-Canada men’s hockey gold-medal game could be the cherry on top.

Previous big United States-Canada hockey games have already proven themselves to be massive audience draws. The two countries faced off in gold medal games at both the 2002 and 2010 Winter Olympics. During the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, 17.1 million people watched. In 2010, 27.6 million people watched during the Vancouver Games. Outside the Olympics, just last year, 9.3 million people watched the United States and Canada play each other in the final of the 4 Nations Face-Off.

So how high could viewership for the same matchup be in this year’s Olympics?

The 2010 game is the third most-watched hockey game in U.S. history, so beating that number seems unlikely. On the other hand, while last year’s 4 Nations audience was large, the game aired on cable via ESPN. The Olympics on NBC is far more likely to pick up casual viewers than a weeknight cable game.

A major variable that will hold viewership back is that all three previous games were played in the Western Hemisphere. That meant mid-afternoon starts for the 2002 and 2010 Olympics, and a primetime start for the 2025 4 Nations tournament. This year, the gold-medal game will be at 8 a.m. ET.

But aside from the time, NBC has a lot going for it, ratings-wise. For one, Nielsen’s new Big Data methodology, introduced in September 2025, has generally led to increased sports viewership. Big Data certainly can’t be hurting because NBC says it is averaging 23.8 million viewers for its “primetime” coverage of the Winter Olympics, up from Beijing in 2022.

For better or worse, the gold-medal game could also feel the effects of the popular Heated Rivalry television series. Unlike viewership for any other sporting event outside the Super Bowl, the Olympics rely on Americans who don’t regularly watch sports. Those are exactly the types of new hockey fans who might be drawn in by Heated Rivalry.

The 2002 figure of 17.1 million viewers, which falls between the 2010 Olympics and the 4 Nations as far as audience goes, may be a good baseline for 2026. Last Saturday, NBC’s daytime Olympic coverage, without a gold-medal hockey game, was already averaging 7 million viewers, according to the TV Media Blog Substack.

While more than doubling viewership may seem like a hard task, that day-long number is an average from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET and does not include viewers on Peacock. The final hockey viewership number will only include the three or so hours the game is actually played, and also include Peacock viewership.

They have already gotten close to beating that mark with hockey. NBC says that Team USA’s win over Sweden on Wednesday averaged 6.9 million viewers on NBC and Peacock.

Of course, a 2025 Canada-United States final is not a sure thing. Canada has to get through Finland, and the United States needs to beat Slovakia in the semifinals.

If those results come through, NBC will surely be happy.