Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS (Wairarapa Building Society) has trimmed their 6, 9 and 12 month rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DAIRY DIP
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index -fell 1.8% in July from June as lower dairy product prices took the gloss off. However, over the past year the index has risen +10.7%, supported by higher dairy and red meat prices. In NZD, the index fell -1.2% in July from June as the NZD strengthened. More here.

GLOBAL SCALE, AUTOMATED
T&G Global and Roc Partners have said they will build a large-scale Hawke’s Bay apple orchard for T&G Global’s Envy and Joli product in automation-ready configurations. The development is notable, not only for the automation aspects, but it will be equivalent in size to 40 rugby fields (40 ha).

NZX50 RISES SHARPLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today joining the global bounceback. However it is still down -0.9% over the past five days and down -1.9% year-to-date, while sitting +4.5% higher year-on-year.Tourism Holdings, F&P Healthcare, Kathmandu, and Vulcan Steel rise; Gentrack, Briscoes, Air NZ, and Auckland Airport are decliners

HANGING IN THERE
There is another dairy auction tomorrow morning. The derivatives markets don’t see much change, either from the last full auction three weeks ago, or even from the Pulse auction a week ago.

STILL SPENDING FREELY
Quarterly June data out today in Australia shows household spending rose at a good rate, up +5.1% from the same month a year ago – and the rate it rose from March was good too. Discretionary spending was strong. Western Australia was the only jurisdiction where spending fell. On a volume basis (after inflation’s impact), it is up +0.7%.

CHINA REGAINING MOMENTUM
China delivered a positive data surprise today, with the private Caixin services PMI rising and by more than expected. (Remember the official NBS services PMI eased lower.) The Caixin China General Services PMI rose in July from June’s nine-month low with the fastest expansion in the services sector since May 2024, and with new business growing at the strongest pace in a year.

FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a separate service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au

SWAP RATES EASE AGAIN
Sovereign interest rates are likely lower again today even after yesterday’s largish retreat. Risk aversion is still extending into the new week. Wholesale swap rates are likely lower today and across the whole maturity range, all on these global influences. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -4 bp at 3.15% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is back up +2 bps at just over 1.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.46% while down -2 bps at 4.43% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at just under 4.20%. Bond markets are flashing quite different signals, warning ones, than the equity markets

EQUITIES ALL HIGHER ON DIP-BUYING
The local equity market is now up +1.1% in late Tuesday trade. And the ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.6%. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open and Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore has risen +0.4%. Wall Street is rose in its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +1.5 in a partial bounce back after a series of large declines

OIL REVERSES
The oil price in the US is sharply lower, now just over US$66/bbl. And the international Brent price is now at US$68.50/bbl. Building supply and weaker demand in major countries are behind the change.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price was unchanged today at NZ$57/NZU on few trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD TURNS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$20 from yesterday at US$3372/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is down another -10 bps from yesterday, now at 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding lower at just over 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 67.

BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,656 and down an insignificant -0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low, at just on +/-0.6%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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