From the moment it was called, it became clear that Gorton and Denton would see a by-election like none before. Andrew Gwynne won the seat with more than 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election.
But politics has shifted substantially in the 19 months that have passed since then. The vote on Thursday (February 26) is being billed as a battle for the soul of the country.
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While 11 candidates are in the running, three front-runners have emerged. Angeliki Stogia is hoping to defend the seat for Labour but she is facing stern competition from both the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer and Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin.
And if constituents needed a reason to get out and vote, two polls in recent days have suggested the three parties all stand a chance. A constituency poll from Opinium – based on a sample of 401 people – puts the Greens on 28 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and Reform on 27 per cent.
The result is expected to be close between Angeliki Stogia (left), Hannah Spencer (second left) and Matt Goodwin (second right)(Image: Sean Hansford | Manchester Evening News)
It follows another poll from Omnisis – based on a sample of 452 people – which gave the Greens 22 per cent, Reform 20 per cent and Labour 18 per cent. Renowned academic Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, believes Reform could stand to benefit if the vote between Labour and the Green Party is evenly split – but a slight shift on polling day could change all that.
He told the Manchester Evening News: “It’s one of the closest by-elections I can recall. A three-way tie like this in two individual constituency polls – that’s a really unusual situation. I think what we can say is Reform needs this even split between Labour and the Green Party to stick until polling day if they are going to win.
Hannah Spencer with Green Party leader Zack Polanski(Image: Jason Roberts /Manchester Evening News)
“I think the share they are getting is about the maximum they can probably expect in a seat like this, but it’s potentially enough to win provided the others split evenly. All that has to happen is some of the current Labour vote goes Green, or some of the Green vote goes Labour, and it will be hard for Reform. I don’t think they will be picking many up apart from that.”
Turnout could be ‘crucial factor’
The turnout in Gorton and Denton could prove to be a crucial factor, according to Prof Ford. Turnout in Gorton and Denton was 47.8 per cent in the General Election 19 months ago, well below the national figure of 59.7 per cent for that vote.
Prof Ford says Labour might feel it ‘knows where its vote is’ – but if the turnout is high, it could be a bad sign for the party, suggesting one of the challenger parties could have rallied voters on polling day. “Labour would say they know this seat, they know this area, they have the strongest organising machine on the ground,” he said.
“They have won local elections here for years, while the Greens have had to build from scratch and Reform have had to build from scratch. However, Labour said all that about Runcorn and Helsby, and they were blindsided by Reform turning out, geeing up voters in a way we had not seen before.”
‘It shouldn’t be a story if Labour win, but it would be’
Should Labour scrape to victory on Friday morning, Prof Ford expects a ‘defying the odds’ narrative to play out. But he believes that any outcome other than a comfortable Labour Party victory will pose a ‘massive headache’ for the party, as it looks to defend dozens of council seats across Greater Manchester in May’s local elections.
“The fact that either the radical right or the radical left could take one of the safest Labour seats in the country, is not a good outcome for Labour and not a good look for Labour,” said Prof Ford. “This is a seat where they started with a massive, massive majority.”
Matt Goodwin and Nigel Farage are hoping for a repeat of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election(Image: James Speakman/PA Wire)
He added: “It shouldn’t be a story [if they win], but it would be. That shows the trouble that they are already in. Whatever happens on Friday, we are going to have an energised Greater Manchester Reform party, an energised Greater Manchester Green Party, and that’s a massive headache for Labour.”
Even a narrow victory for Angeliki Stogia could be a headache for Keir Starmer’s party(Image: Sean Hansford | Manchester Evening News)
Should Reform and the Green Party put in the strong performance in tomorrow’s by-election that many people are now expecting, Prof Ford expects the two parties to use that result as a basis for growing further support in Greater Manchester, even if they are narrowly defeated in Gorton and Denton. “They have no electoral history in these wards,” he added.
“With this by-election, they will say ‘look at that result, that shows we are a force and you can lend us your vote, we can win around here’. That’s a free bonus that the Labour government has given to Reform and the Green Party. There’s no reason I can see why they couldn’t have waited a few months to have the by-election at the same time as the local elections.”
What the front-runners say
While Labour acknowledges there is support for the Green Party, it suggests the party’s vote is ‘really soft’ and is not being felt across the whole Gorton and Denton constituency, only in certain areas. A campaign spokesperson said: “We absolutely appreciate that there is Green support, especially in places like Levenshulme. If this was a council by-election tomorrow I would hold my hands up and say the Greens would probably win that seat, but the reality is that this is a parliamentary by-election.”
The party says it has spoken to around 1,500 voters a day during the campaign, including at doors where Green party signs have been placed, but where canvassers have still found Labour support. The campaign spokesperson also pointed towards Sir Keir Starmer’s recent appearance in the campaign as a sign of the party’s positivity, while adding the party’s ‘renowned’ campaign machine on polling day would ‘dwarf the other parties’.
The parties challenging Labour have a different opinion. A Green Party spokesperson said: “The polls and independent tactical voting organisation are clear that voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform don’t win. We are confident, and have run a fantastic campaign.
Denton and Gorton by-election leaflets that have been posted to residents in the constituency(Image: Sean Hansford | Manchester Evening News)
“The voters in Gorton and Denton have made clear to us that what they what want more than anything is real change. Throughout the campaign, voters have tended to see that change as either coming through the Greens or through Reform but as the campaign has progressed, they have increasingly started to reject Reform’s divisive candidate as just more of the same, and come over to the Greens message of hope and change.
“Labour have never been in this since they blocked Andy Burnham. We are in the lead, it is close, but the polls show clearly that if you want to stop Reform, you have to vote Green tomorrow.”
A Reform UK spokesperson said: “The latest polling supports what we have been saying from the start, it’s a three horse race in Gorton and Denton. It’s all to play for. The fact that we are even competitive in what is Labour’s sixth safest seat is testament to the hard work of all those involved in our by-election campaign.
“The Greens have been more interested in Gaza than the people of Gorton and Denton and have been campaigning in Urdu whilst the Labour Party have been offering food in exchange for political support. They both claim to oppose ‘division’ while organising along communal lines. Only a vote for Reform is a vote to put the people of Gorton and Denton where they belong, first.”