The poll, conducted by Stonehaven and commissioned by The Times, has the SNP on 67 seats, a victory John Swinney has said would give him the mandate to push for a second independence referendum.

Reform UK are projected to return 25 MSPs, with Scottish Labour in third place returning 15.

The SNP have not won an outright majority since 2011 under Alex Salmond. This victory gave Salmond the base to push for the 2014 independence referendum.

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Stonehaven has predicted that tactical voting against Reform UK could lead to Scots voting for the SNP when they otherwise would not. This would see Reform failing to return any constituencies.

However, Reform UK are also making large inroads in Scotland, with the party expected to perform well in the regional list.

The result would also see Scottish Labour slump to just 15 MSPs, the worst result for the party since devolution.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats would also return eight seats, while the Scottish Greens and Conservatives would be tied on seven each.

The SNP’s seats would come entirely from the constituency list, winning all but six of the seats on offer. In contrast, Labour are only set to win one, the Western Isles, and the LibDems five.

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Luke Betham, head of data science at Stonehaven, said: “Tactical voting is likely to play a significant role this May, with a handful of closely fought constituency contests set to decide whether or not the SNP secures an overall majority for the first time since 2011.

“At the same time, our modelling points to Reform becoming the main opposition force in Holyrood, ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. That kind of generational realignment would cause an almighty headache for both Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.

“John Swinney has already said winning an outright majority would be a mandate for a second independence referendum, based on the precedent set in 2011. Labour has indicated it would reject calls for a rerun of 2014, which would likely lead to a souring of relations between Edinburgh and Westminster.”

(Image: Michael Boyd/PA Wire)

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said the UK Government would not allow a second referendum, and the Supreme Court confirmed that Westminster has the power to refuse the request, however, Swinney has said a rejection in the face of an SNP majority would be politically untenable.

Stonehaven has been among the most accurate pollsters in recent contests, having predicted the results of the UK general election within a margin of 38 seats.