SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — The conflict with Iran is already disrupting the global energy supply chain. In the U.S., the national average for a gallon of gas is going to top $3 on Monday.
Some are concerned ongoing attacks will curb the supply of oil from Iran and the Middle East.
Ask anyone how much they’re paying for a gallon of gas, and you’ll get a lot of exclamation points.
“If you look at the sign right here, it’s $5.09. That’s crazy,” said Starr Brown of Sacramento.
Kylee Rojas of San Francisco says it hurts to fill up her gas tank.
“Each time, it’s about $80 once a week. I know. (It’s) painful,” Rojas said.
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With the recent U.S. and Israel attacks on Iran and retaliatory strikes, experts anticipate oil shipments are going to be disrupted.
Nearly 20% of the world’s oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.
Attacks on vessels traveling through the strait could decrease the global supply. That means prices may spike.
Severin Bornstein is Business and Faculty director at the Energy Institute at Haas School of Business.
“A blockade or any sort of disruption to shipping through the strait is likely to cause a significant increase to oil prices,” Borenstein said. “It’s a major disruption for now. The question is how long this is going to last. If it lasts a couple of days, I don’t think we will see a major spike. If it continues, we could see a major short-term spike. If you cut off all shipping through strait of Hormuz, the world will have a significant oil shortage”
LIVE UPDATES: Get the latest news on the U.S.-Israel joint attack on Iran here
Experts at GasBuddy say consumers will likely see an increase in the gas prices.
“I would expect sticker shock for some areas. This is not going to be an overnight massive spike, but it will be noticeable to most motorists,” said Patrick DeHaan, head of Petroleum Analysis for GasBuddy. “Gas prices have already been rising for four straight weeks. The seasonality also drives them up as well. So, it’s a bit of a double-whammy now.”
Demand for gas is also expected drive up prices as the spring break travel season kicks off.
Here are the current averages in the Bay Area, according to Triple A: In San Francisco, a gallon of regular will cost you about $4.83. Oakland’s average is $4.73. And San Jose is $4.67.
“Every dollar per barrel increase in the price of oil feeds through 2-and-half-cent per gallon. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a $10 dollar per barrel increase in the next couple of days if it looks like significant disruption in shipping,” Borenstein said.
The conflict in Iran is certain to raise prices. How much and how soon is still unclear. Drivers are already bracing for the changes at the pump.
“I think it’s most likely because we are so intrinsically involved globally now,” said one Bay Area driver.
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