It is unclear what is left of Hezbollah’s arsenal or of its fighting force and, with Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz describing the group’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem, as a “marked target for elimination”, some see this as a suicidal mission by the group.
The escalation in Lebanon means a second front for Israel in the war in Iran, as it continues to carry out frequent air strikes on Iran alongside the US. In both countries, there is no clear stated objective or timeline, though in Lebanon it is likely that Israel’s aim is to permanently neutralise any military threat from Hezbollah and possibly force Lebanon into agreeing a new deal. The Israeli military’s chief of staff has said Hezbollah will suffer a “devastating blow”.
The expansion of Israel’s ground invasion in south of Lebanon has raised fears of a wider campaign, similar to the one in 2024. Despite the ceasefire deal, which was brokered by the US and France, the Israeli military had remained in five locations inside Lebanon and enforced a de facto buffer zone along the border. Thousands of additional Lebanese soldiers had also been deployed there. Some are now being forced to retreat.
“Hezbollah is trapped – precisely where the Israelis want it to be,” Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, wrote in the Diwan blog, external. “Nothing can now stop Israel’s intention to hit Hezbollah and its community hard, completing what was started in 2024.”
Last November, I visited southern Lebanese communities that remained in ruins – international donors have refused to fund reconstruction in part because of the impasse over disarmament – and saw that some people were already challenging long-held views. Hezbollah’s move has been angrily denounced by critics as reckless. But it is possible that even some followers will ask what exactly the group is trying to achieve.