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Toronto’s management, coaches and players were full of confidence in summer and autumn, but winter and spring bring harsh reality.
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Published Mar 03, 2026 • Last updated 3 hours ago • 4 minute read
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Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews talks to Morgan Rielly during a game earlier this year. Getty ImagesArticle content
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”
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That was one of baseball legend Yogi Berra’s famed oxymorons and why the Maple Leafs are among pro sports teams who try to avoid the pitfalls of prognostication.
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Hey, we’ve regretted a few ourselves in the course of covering many seasons.
But with 21 games to play and little hope of rising above a wild-card playoff mosh pit, it’s time to look back many months at the best-laid plans of the Leafs, via five fateful quotes:
1. Harsh side effects of DNA change
“There’s some DNA that has to change in our team.” – general manager Brad Treliving.
This was the main reason behind moving on from Mitch Marner, a mutual parting of the ways after yet another quiet playoff exit by the right winger and the team.
What the GM underestimated was how much Marner mattered as fuel to first reach the playoffs — his100 points, including power-play panache and his value defensively in tandem with Auston Matthews’ quick stick.
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Treliving and coach Craig Berube never promised one player could or would replace Marner, but doing it by committee with pick ups such as Mattias Maccelli hasn’t worked consistently either.
We won’t likely know until at least next year how a Leafs playoff campaign would unfold without Marner, while Mitch gets a chance to prove doubters wrong next month in Vegas.
2. Lack of a plan post-Shanahan
“My plan now is to not replace Brendan (Shanahan). Whether Brad takes on a larger role is something that will be determined down the road. One of the best sounding boards (Treliving can have) is Craig, who won a Cup in St Louis. I’m a firm believer that the coach has to be more involved than just the day of the game and in the dressing room.” – MLSE CEO Keith Pelley.
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We’ll take Pelley at his word that his role in the post-Shanaplan triumvirate was to leave all hockey-related decisions to hockey people.
But Treliving already had made two costly bets on playoff ringers who couldn’t get the team past the second round (Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton), which took two first-round picks off the board.
Defenceman Troy Stecher was a good add off waivers, but all other tinkering since the start of this season failed to arrest their slide in the standings.
If Berube has used his new-found influence, it has seemed to reinforce old-school values — play heavy, dump and chase, loyalty to veterans versus playing kids such as Easton Cowan.
Treliving and Berube will have a say in any deadline deals that present themselves by this Friday afternoon but, beyond that, will one or both survive a change in direction by Pelley this summer to a new director of hockey operations?
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3. Matthews’ leadership leaves lots to be desired
“I thought (Auston Matthews) grew quickly as a leader. You guys don’t see it, the in-game things, during games where he’s commanding the room. And he’s not the only guy. We have a lot of good, strong leaders who don’t have to wear an ‘A’ or a ‘C.’” – Berube.
The coach is correct, we aren’t privy to what happens in planes, trains and automobiles.
We can only see that the undemonstrative Matthews prefers leading by example and keeps to himself more than any Leafs captain in recent memory.
That’s fine when he’s on a Rocket Richard Trophy pace, lighting it up at the Olympics or letting lesser Leafs have the spotlight, but not when the team is about to miss the playoffs for the first time in nine years and he’s in his second-longest goal drought.
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It’s good he got upset at himself and the team for the no-show against Ottawa on Saturday, but such public scolding and mea culpas of accountability have been far overdue from himself and the leadership group.
4. Too many mistakes on defence
“There are going to be times throughout the year where we’re not feeling that great. There will be games where we make a mistake, but both of us have to move forward, park it, not let it accumulate.” – Brandon Carlo on himself and partner Morgan Rielly.
This was envisioned as an ideal pairing, the stay-at-home Carlo taking care of business to let Rielly jump up in the play. But turning 32 next week, Rielly has lost a step, does little as power-play point man and both have suffered when the Leafs are hemmed in.
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Toronto’s last-place ranking in shots allowed and 5-on-5 goals against can’t be hung on this duo, of course, as Chris Tanev’s absence created an adverse domino effect on the whole defence corps. But Rielly and Carlo are far from finding their desired chemistry.
5. Big third line comes up small
“Love the size. They can go against any line in the league.” – Berube on a third line built around Nicolas Roy and Dakota Joshua.
Roy, who was the consolation prize for losing Marner, has filled the bill, part of the conference’s second-best penalty kill.
But Joshua has struggled at times to find his role, not driving to the net enough or being overly intimidating before a lacerated kidney cost him almost two months.
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The coach tempered his expectations, noting a creative winger had to be part of the third-unit mix. That has been a revolving door that included Maccelli, Cowan and, when they were out of favour in the top six, Bobby McMann and Matthew Knies.
Knies got bigger in the off-season, but not necessarily faster. McMann replaced him on the first line, but his finish has slipped post-Olympics.
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